Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

really the only chance it has of really impacting South Florida is if the shear totally relaxes and the convection can build on the west side of the center....

Noel is actually trying to build convection towards the west now -- not a good sign but the shear is on the way...to save Florida..

[destruction92]

Yea, but after the advisory was issued, the Hurricane Hunters found the center more NW than thought, so it is unofficially moving NW or NNW in my opinion.

Hey Jeremy...could you give me the plot of Noel's coordinates according to the the hurricane hunters....I take these guys seriously since they have the most current, up-to-date, accurate information.

But, Noel is definitely NOT moving NNW....more like NNE.....if anything proves true, probably just a center relocation but nothing more than that IMO.....Why didn't the NHC CANCEL tropical storm watches for Florida....the 11 PM cone has shifted further EAST.....http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv ... p_3W.shtml

destruction you are extreme -- last night you were saying FL is in trouble and tonight you are arguing the total opposite way...

I changed my mind based on Wxman57's comments that Florida is not threatened anymore, if it ever was, and because the NHC advisory has Noel moving North....

I still would like some more information on the hurricane hunters' findings suggesting that Noel's center may be located farther to the NW than mentioned in the NHC advisory.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010317
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 25 20071101
030530 2335N 07713W 8420 01512 0018 +171 +171 163038 039 032 010 00
030600 2337N 07713W 8421 01512 0021 +169 +169 158040 041 032 010 00
030630 2339N 07713W 8422 01511 0021 +167 +167 154038 039 034 010 00
030700 2341N 07713W 8423 01510 0021 +166 +166 156039 039 034 010 00
030730 2343N 07713W 8418 01515 0020 +169 +167 158039 040 033 009 00
030800 2345N 07713W 8418 01516 0020 +171 +166 158039 040 033 010 00
030830 2347N 07714W 8422 01514 0020 +173 +162 157038 039 033 010 00
030900 2349N 07714W 8421 01514 0020 +176 +158 157036 037 034 010 00
030930 2351N 07714W 8420 01514 0024 +165 +165 150037 038 033 010 00
031000 2353N 07714W 8422 01513 0026 +163 +163 153038 038 034 010 00
031030 2355N 07714W 8417 01516 0025 +162 +162 158040 041 035 010 00
031100 2357N 07714W 8423 01514 0034 +152 +152 148044 046 035 011 00
031130 2359N 07715W 8416 01521 0028 +162 +162 148044 044 033 010 00
031200 2401N 07715W 8423 01514 0027 +165 +164 152046 046 033 009 00
031230 2403N 07715W 8424 01515 0029 +166 +158 148045 047 032 010 00
031300 2405N 07715W 8417 01522 0028 +167 +163 147041 044 032 010 00
031330 2407N 07715W 8420 01519 0030 +165 +156 141036 036 031 009 00
031400 2409N 07715W 8421 01521 0031 +165 +155 142035 036 031 010 00
031430 2411N 07716W 8421 01520 0030 +170 +153 140034 035 033 009 00
031500 2412N 07716W 8421 01520 0028 +171 +155 143033 034 031 009 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Actually I can't believe this is even happening and its Nov. 1st

wow sure seems like Sept 1st right now...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Miami radar showing what is a center at a higher level and may not be where the LLC is exactly:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... fs.6.val=1

[gatorcane]

Noel should turn any minute..

should, should, should.....that trough is digging. He must turn soon, its impossible if he doesn't yet why isn't Noel turning? Why is it still drifting?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

[SouthFLTropics]

Goodnight everyone...I hope I don't wake up to any suprises tomorrow morning...Hopefully we can kiss Noel goodbye tomorrow and usher in some cooler, dryer air for the weekend.

SFT

[Chris_in_Tampa]

10 minutes ago, the hurricane hunters found the first SFMR estimated surface wind sustained for 1 minute at tropical storm force (39 mph) that has been found in this entire mission so far. They need to sample the higher wind areas, but this does not so far indicate that this storm is quickly getting stronger.

[gatorcane]

10 minutes ago, the hurricane hunters found the first SFMR estimated surface wind sustained for 1 minute at tropical storm force (39 mph )that has been found in this entire mission so far. They need to sample the higher wind areas, but this does not so far indicate that this storm is quickly getting stronger.

It's only a matter of time -- if that convection persists like this overnight I think at least a CAT 1 is in order here.....

That is some very deep convection....

[tolakram]

Regardless of strength it's an impressively large storm. Lots of energy being released. You can see the convection building west over what we think is the center, so I expect a brief period of decent intensification before it gets blown apart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

Seems to me this storm has great educational value.

[gatorcane]

By the way shear has DRAMATICALLY decreased and is allowing the convection to spread westward this evening.

[Evil Jeremy]

If it is going to turn, it has to be soon.

Every morning has provided a new suprise with Noel. A few days ago, Noel made an unexpected morning visit into Cuba. This morning, Noel's center moved westward, away from the convection. There will probably be another suprise waiting for us in the morning, we just don't know what it will be yet.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010327
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 26 20071101
031530 2414N 07716W 8422 01517 0028 +170 +159 143029 030 029 009 00
031600 2416N 07716W 8420 01520 0029 +170 +158 143028 029 029 009 00
031630 2418N 07716W 8420 01521 0030 +167 +160 143026 027 027 010 00
031700 2420N 07716W 8420 01521 0030 +166 +161 139024 024 028 009 00
031730 2422N 07717W 8419 01522 0031 +166 +152 139023 023 026 010 00
031800 2423N 07717W 8419 01524 0033 +166 +150 142022 023 026 009 00
031830 2425N 07717W 8419 01522 0034 +165 +147 142021 021 024 009 00
031900 2427N 07717W 8410 01530 0031 +166 +147 146020 021 999 999 03
031930 2427N 07719W 8424 01516 0030 +170 +150 147022 023 017 009 03
032000 2426N 07720W 8422 01520 0031 +168 +154 140021 022 024 009 00
032030 2425N 07722W 8422 01519 0033 +165 +162 139022 023 024 010 00
032100 2424N 07723W 8421 01520 0028 +169 +165 143023 024 025 010 00
032130 2422N 07724W 8420 01521 0029 +170 +164 142026 027 022 010 00
032200 2421N 07725W 8421 01517 0027 +169 +162 140029 031 026 009 00
032230 2420N 07727W 8421 01517 0028 +169 +160 139033 034 027 009 00
032300 2419N 07728W 8419 01519 0029 +165 +162 136033 033 027 010 00
032330 2418N 07729W 8423 01514 0029 +160 +160 133033 034 029 009 00
032400 2417N 07730W 8420 01516 0028 +162 +162 135035 037 028 009 00
032430 2416N 07732W 8421 01514 0026 +161 +161 140038 039 029 010 00
032500 2416N 07732W 8421 01514 0026 +162 +162 141035 038 028 010 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

If it is going to turn, it has to be soon.

Every morning has provided a new suprise with Noel. A few days ago, Noel made an unexpected morning visit into Cuba. This morning, Noel's center moved westward, away from the convection. There will probably be another suprise waiting for us in the morning, we just don't know what it will be yet.

I will go on the record saying that if this unexpected surprise is a hurricane bearing down on SE Florida tomorrow AM when we wake up,

the NHC is going to be seriously questioned...

but I will bet my money that isn't going to happen!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It is deep convection, with higher winds aloft, but it is running out of time very fast to have a chance to strengthen. The center is not aligned well and despite becoming a little less broad in terms of pressure, it still remains rather broad especially if you consider the wind field. And the as wxman57, the winds that were strongest at flight level so far were in the outer edges of the storm. That was in a squall. The winds were very light near the center.

[BigA]

I know this is a comparatively long ways in the future, but any guesses on what impact Noel might have on Eastern New England or the Canadian Maratimes. Two of the models (GDFL and HWRF) show the storm coming close enough to Cape Cod to hit it with significant winds.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They have made the turn and will now sample the NE quadrant for the highest winds as they approach the center.

[Evil Jeremy]

If it is going to turn, it has to be soon.

Every morning has provided a new suprise with Noel. A few days ago, Noel made an unexpected morning visit into Cuba. This morning, Noel's center moved westward, away from the convection. There will probably be another suprise waiting for us in the morning, we just don't know what it will be yet.

I will go on the record saying that if this unexpected surprise is a hurricane bearing down on SE Florida tomorrow AM when we wake up,

the NHC is going to be seriously questioned...

but I will bet my money that isn't going to happen!

So am I, but did anyone think that Noel was going to make it this far west about 4 or 5 days ago? Did anyone honestly think that Noel would make a landfall in Cuba and stay there for a full day? It might be just a gut feeling, but somthing tells me that there are a few more suprises with Noel.

Also, if the storm isnt yet alligned, and the strongest winds are not near the storm's center, shouldnt that change its movement?

[HURAKAN]