Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cpdaman]

lets see derek pointed out earlier that the model that predicted the loop earlier today called for another loop, then a move to the n and then ne

so another little loop tonite is not out of the question IMO

the question i have is how close are the winds that will actually steer this thing in a direction (presumably north, and then north east at a DECENT rate of speed)

[hiflyer]

all right...just got woken up by the ol noaa radio alarming...seems it was felt necessary to move sofla to a trop storm warning. little feeder type band coming onshore fairly soon...

[Evil Jeremy]

huh? TS warning? did I miss somthing?

[Stratosphere747]

all right...just got woken up by the ol noaa radio alarming...seems it was felt necessary to move sofla to a trop storm warning. little feeder type band coming onshore fairly soon...

That is for the coastal waters, and not inland.

[Bgator]

You sure your NOAA radio said that?

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ168-172-173-010930-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1126 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN
REEF AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES NOT INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.

[HeatherAKC]

TS Warning...Someone can clarify? Off-shore warning? Confirmation please...

[Chacor]

TS Warning...Someone can clarify? Off-shore warning? Confirmation please...

Tropical Storm Warning for offshore waters. There are no land-based coastal TS warnings for FL yet.

[gatorcane]

one thing to note is that the trough over the northern GOM does not seem to be making as much progess tonight as I was thinking.....

Check out this loop and notice the white clouds over the middle US now streaming from West to East....instead of NW to SE.

its not digging that much folks but how can ALL model guidance be wrong at this point?

Noel should, should, should turn

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[destruction92]

all right...just got woken up by the ol noaa radio alarming...seems it was felt necessary to move sofla to a trop storm warning. little feeder type band coming onshore fairly soon...

No, that is for S Florida COASTAL WATERS....nothing to worry about in South Florida if you live on land.
This is just an added precaution for maritime interests....still no threat to Florida....

[cycloneye]

TS Warning...Someone can clarify? Off-shore warning? Confirmation please...

000
WTUS82 KMFL 010326
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ168-172-173-010930-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1126 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN
REEF AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES NOT INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY: PALM BEACH...
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN
REEF AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES NOT INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.

The warning is for the offshore waters.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010337
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 27 20071101
032530 2413N 07734W 8422 01513 0023 +166 +166 136032 034 028 010 00
032600 2412N 07735W 8422 01511 0025 +161 +161 138033 034 095 015 00
032630 2411N 07737W 8421 01513 0023 +164 +164 138031 031 087 000 03
032700 2410N 07738W 8419 01513 0019 +169 +166 140031 031 125 001 03
032730 2409N 07739W 8419 01511 0018 +170 +163 139029 030 025 007 00
032800 2408N 07741W 8419 01510 0016 +170 +165 140030 031 096 003 03
032830 2406N 07742W 8420 01509 0018 +168 +168 134032 032 089 002 03
032900 2405N 07743W 8422 01506 0016 +167 +167 138032 033 999 999 03
032930 2404N 07744W 8419 01508 0014 +169 +169 136033 033 999 999 03
033000 2403N 07746W 8419 01508 0013 +169 +169 136032 033 999 999 03
033030 2402N 07747W 8422 01504 0012 +167 +167 133033 034 075 000 03
033100 2401N 07748W 8419 01506 0011 +167 +167 133034 035 999 999 03
033130 2400N 07749W 8422 01503 0011 +168 +168 131033 033 999 999 03
033200 2358N 07751W 8418 01504 0007 +171 +166 131032 033 090 004 00
033230 2357N 07752W 8421 01500 0004 +175 +166 128030 030 024 009 00
033300 2356N 07753W 8422 01499 0004 +174 +166 126030 031 020 009 00
033330 2355N 07755W 8422 01498 0000 +177 +164 127027 029 021 009 00
033400 2354N 07756W 8420 01498 9996 +182 +162 122025 026 021 009 00
033430 2352N 07757W 8422 01495 9995 +184 +164 126026 027 023 009 00
033500 2351N 07759W 8418 01500 9993 +187 +159 122027 028 019 009 00
$$
;

Back towards the core. Unreliable SFMR data due to flying over islands.

[Evil Jeremy]

There is another situation that is not getting enough attention: The Intracoastal. I recently spoke to a friend who wanted me to tell him the latest updates with the storm, and as he lives along the Intracoastal, I asked him what was going on with it. He told me that if it rose anymore, which it should tommorow, it would start flooding.

[bocadude86]

Tropical Storm warning for costal waters of south florida... not for south florida

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... p=1#000000

Not sure if that link will work. -- it does work, just click on a radio button at the very top for the sat image you want to see, animated.

So why is the convection rapidly filling in to the SW? I wasn't expecting that.

[destruction92]

one thing to note is that the trough over the northern GOM does not seem to be making as much progess tonight as I was thinking.....

Check out this loop and notice the white clouds over the middle US now streaming from West to East....instead of NW to SE.

its not digging that much folks but how can ALL model guidance be wrong at this point?

Noel should, should, should turn

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

For more images of the like, refer to http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[gatorcane]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=16L&zoom=4&img=14&vars=1111100000000000000000&loop=1#000000

Not sure if that link will work.

So why is the convection rapidly filling in to the SW? I wasn't expecting that.

shear has lessened....

[Vortex]

Tropical storm conditions now expected across SE FL coastal waters within the next 24 hours...Upgraded 10 minutes ago

[Evil Jeremy]

Shear lessening, wind field expanding, convection moving more west, and the Intracoastal is at a serious threat of flooding soon.

[BigA]

Wow, convection is exploding to the southwest. I dont think this necessarily means much intensification (although it could) but I've never seen a system with so much black-top infrared.

[gatorcane]

Wow, convection is exploding to the southwest. I dont think this necessarily means much intensification (although it could) but I've never seen a system with so much black-top infrared.

I have with Wilma