Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[brunota2003]

While 55 knots at flight level may support the current intensity, look at the SFMR...It peaked at 40 knots (39 to be exact) in that same stretch of airspace.

[Derek Ortt]

a storm can be retired for either damage or deaths

81 dead alone is not going to cut it. Even 1200 may not result in retirement (see Gordon)

[brunota2003]

Deaths is not, and should NEVER, be looked at as the only thing going into retirement. Many storms are retired because of the damage and grief they cause, versus death.

[RL3AO]

I guess we will see come March. It would be strange for what seemed like a lackluster season (overall in terms of ACE) to have 3 retired storms.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010447
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 34 20071101
043530 2445N 07945W 8418 01526 0040 +161 +150 061045 046 032 009 00
043600 2444N 07944W 8417 01525 0034 +167 +148 062043 044 032 009 00
043630 2443N 07943W 8422 01521 0032 +168 +151 060043 045 031 009 00
043700 2442N 07942W 8424 01516 0032 +169 +151 060043 043 030 009 00
043730 2441N 07941W 8419 01521 0032 +165 +157 060045 045 029 009 00
043800 2440N 07939W 8422 01517 0030 +165 +159 059046 046 030 009 00
043830 2438N 07938W 8421 01516 0028 +168 +158 057045 045 030 009 00
043900 2437N 07937W 8422 01516 0027 +170 +159 057045 046 030 009 00
043930 2436N 07936W 8418 01520 0028 +165 +164 057045 045 031 009 00
044000 2435N 07935W 8418 01519 0031 +160 +160 056043 044 032 009 00
044030 2434N 07933W 8423 01513 0030 +160 +160 056044 044 039 006 00
044100 2433N 07932W 8423 01513 0029 +160 +160 053043 045 033 009 00
044130 2432N 07931W 8422 01513 0026 +165 +165 051040 041 032 009 00
044200 2431N 07930W 8422 01513 0024 +165 +161 051038 038 031 009 00
044230 2430N 07929W 8417 01517 0022 +167 +161 050035 037 031 009 00
044300 2429N 07927W 8424 01509 0021 +170 +159 051033 033 031 009 00
044330 2427N 07926W 8419 01513 0022 +167 +151 051032 033 033 009 00
044400 2426N 07925W 8419 01511 0016 +173 +157 050031 032 035 008 00
044430 2426N 07925W 8419 01511 0014 +174 +157 049031 031 033 009 00
044500 2424N 07922W 8415 01514 0011 +177 +157 046031 032 033 009 00
$$
;

Back towards the core.

[Jevo]

a storm can be retired for either damage or deaths

81 dead alone is not going to cut it. Even 1200 may not result in retirement (see Gordon)

yeah Derek we really need to pump up that body count huh... Unfortunatly the storms that usually kill the most are directly attribted to the effected region.... Noel is a perfect example... If it spun over Fort lauderdale for 24 hours we'd probably have maybe 1 from some bonehead surfer.... It scoots by hispanolia and wipes out hundreds of shacks that really dont attribute to any real damage estimate and all youre left with is a body count..

Im sorry for my off topic subject, but ive just read 3 pages that can be likened to a playground argument about who's daddy can beat up the others....

[brunota2003]

This is actually fairly interesting...look at the Recon data. As the plane is away from the center, the flight level winds are 15 to 20 knots higher than the SFMR readings...but on their way back towards the center, the winds even out (and from time to time, the SFMR is higher than the Flight level winds). What causes that? Is it the fact they are getting closer to the core, and thus stronger storms to help move the wind down to the ground? Just a weird pass? Or what?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It is very odd that the highest wind at flight level is so far away from the center. wxman57 noted this earlier. But look right now at the obs as they come back toward the center, the winds are steadily decreasing way out there as you get closer to the center. This is very unusual.

And brunota2003 mentioned, the highest SFMR reading at that time, and for this entire mission so far, was just 39.0 knots over two continuous 30 second intervals. Meaning, 45 mph would be a good advisory intensity at the moment. There were two missing SFMR readings at the exact time the highest flight level winds were recorded, so they might want to go with 50 mph to be sure and since this is not where the highest winds are usually, but of course this is the highest winds so far, higher than any SFMR in the NE quadrant.

Just so odd that the wind maximum is so far out.

Or perhaps this is attributed to the high and Noel and not associated with the wind field of Noel, meaning Noel might not even be that strong. We'll have to see on the next pass.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010457
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 35 20071101
044530 2423N 07921W 8424 01503 0012 +172 +163 047032 034 034 008 00
044600 2422N 07920W 8419 01508 0012 +170 +164 048029 030 034 009 00
044630 2421N 07918W 8420 01504 0009 +174 +165 048029 030 034 009 00
044700 2419N 07917W 8425 01500 0007 +176 +163 048028 029 034 009 00
044730 2418N 07916W 8422 01503 0006 +178 +166 049026 026 034 009 00
044800 2417N 07915W 8423 01500 0007 +173 +169 052031 032 034 009 00
044830 2416N 07913W 8418 01504 0003 +178 +166 057030 031 033 009 00
044900 2415N 07912W 8417 01504 0003 +174 +167 056029 030 032 009 00
044930 2414N 07911W 8422 01497 0001 +175 +168 057030 031 030 009 00
045000 2413N 07910W 8421 01499 0001 +175 +168 058028 029 030 009 00
045030 2412N 07908W 8418 01502 9999 +175 +168 059028 028 028 009 00
045100 2410N 07907W 8419 01499 0001 +174 +168 060027 027 027 009 00
045130 2409N 07906W 8421 01498 0002 +172 +168 060027 027 028 009 00
045200 2408N 07905W 8417 01502 0001 +171 +171 064027 027 027 009 00
045230 2407N 07904W 8422 01494 0000 +174 +174 064027 027 026 009 00
045300 2406N 07902W 8425 01492 0001 +170 +170 068028 029 027 009 00
045330 2405N 07901W 8419 01497 0000 +170 +170 070028 028 028 009 00
045400 2404N 07900W 8423 01492 0003 +164 +164 075029 030 028 009 00
045430 2403N 07859W 8420 01494 9999 +167 +167 081030 031 027 009 00
045500 2402N 07858W 8417 01494 9996 +168 +168 088030 031 026 010 00
$$
;

[cpdaman]

the wind maximum was about 50 miles SE of miami

i'm not sure what it translates into at the surface

but could this be enough to issue a tropical storm warning or just let it be covered by the wind advisory

what will the miami NHC due

[gilbert88]

Storms that kill 50+ people should have the name retired. Everyone would be pretty sure about a storm getting retired for a smaller death toll in the US... and we know it CAN happen (Allison).

And Gordon not getting retired is kind of embarrassing. More people remember that storm than, say, Klaus or Diana.

[cpdaman]

did anyone notice the highest recon winds were located

around 24.8 79.8 55 knots flight level

which is about 50 miles SE of miami

will this get a TS warning

[CrazyC83]

Recon appears to be having transmission trouble now...

[RattleMan]

Recon appears to be having transmission trouble now...

Indeed, we're missing HDOB 36, 37, and now 38...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I think this was probably due to the high and Noel and not associated directly with Noel. The winds came down and then started to go back up as they approached the center, so probably not an extremely broad center. Unfortunately the HDOB data is not coming in at the moment. I wanted to see if the winds continued to increase to the center to be sure.

[brunota2003]

TS Noel...The New And Improved Energizer Bunny...No upgrade or downgrade on the TS Watch, either.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
200 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315
KM...SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[bocadude86]

winds on the increase here in Boca...

[dwsqos2]

Old VDM...

000
URNT12 KNHC 010705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/05:10:30Z
B. 23 deg 23 min N
078 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1363 m
D. 39 kt
E. 348 deg 120 nm
F. 062 deg 048 kt
G. 318 deg 107 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 17 C/ 1530 m
J. 22 C/ 1532 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1016A NOEL OB 15
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NW QUAD 04:33 Z

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
NOEL THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[Thunder44]

As of 5am, TS Warning now for SE FLorida. The great debate is over.