Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

[tgenius]

I think this is the last storm for 07 with a possibility for Florida. I could be wrong, but given the time of year and the fronts.. i think the bell has rung.

[wxman57]

Storm moving northward, and convection pulling away from Florida. This is it. The lon gawaited turn is begining.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Cone is weird: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

The cone always represents the average 5-year track error. It never changes in that respect. However, a fast-moving storm with only a 3-day track will yield a cone that looks long and narrow. A 5-day cone for a nearly stationary storm would be a big circle.

[boca]

Storm moving northward, and convection pulling away from Florida. This is it. The lon gawaited turn is begining.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Cone is weird: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Can you say hello severe water restrictions. The only rain well get here in S FL for the next 6 months are from cold fronts that usually come thru dry. Thanks Noel for leaving us high and dry. Those poor cities around Lake O water will suffer the most with their water supply running out just like a sci fi movie come April or May because by that time Lake o will be so low it won't be able to flow.

[Evil Jeremy]

Storm moving northward, and convection pulling away from Florida. This is it. The lon gawaited turn is begining.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Cone is weird: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

The cone always represents the average 5-year track error. It never changes in that respect. However, a fast-moving storm with only a 3-day track will yield a cone that looks long and narrow. A 5-day cone for a nearly stationary storm would be a big circle.

Actually wxman, I said that because about 10 minutes ago, the cone did not have the cone of error, only a white dot, and the Black lines that form the center of the cone. The actual cone and times and dates were missing. They probably put them back in.

[sfwx]

Goodbye cloudy, gloomy weather and hello cool dry weather. Our first REAL cool front of the year is almost here. The weekend looks awesome.

Eric

[StormTracker]

I have to say NOEL has been an extreme learning experience for me!!! Thanks to all of you here on S2K!!!

[cpdaman]

what is that "feature" on WV that appears to be now just north of the cyclone and lifting out w/ the dryer air on the back side

was this the feature that was supposed to pick noel up, or is everything still going according to schedule?

[Evil Jeremy]

It is suppoused to weaken the ridge that will allow Noel to move northward. However, Noel does not look like it is moving north much yet, and after the cold front moves off of the coast later today, the ridge will build back in. I am starting to wonder if the cold front is not going to be able to fully pick up Noel.

[cpdaman]

oh boy, it better lift this "thing" out later today

[Evil Jeremy]

On a side note, if the NHC 8AM position is true, then the center is exposed again.

[P.K.]

According to a HF radio operator in the UK they have been relaying data over HF radio rather than the SATCOM as that is broken. When he was listening they said they were going to release two more dropsondes and then abort the mission.

[ericinmia]

On water vapor you can really see the effect of that front on Noel...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

New vortex message put the center at 23.5N/78W, about 30 miles east of the NHC 7am CDT estimated position. Could mean the center has been tracking NNE and/or it's reforming closer to the convection. If that's the case, then the center won't get but about another 15-20 miles closer to Miami than it is now at its closest approach. Only 47 kts at FL in the quadrant with the strongest squalls.

URNT12 KNHC 011235

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/1134Z
B. 23 deg 30 min N
078 deg 01 min W
C. 850 mb 1372 M
D. 33 kt
E. 253 deg 59 nm
F. 334 deg 028 kt
G. 249 deg 078 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 18 C/ 1523 m
J. 20 C/ 1527 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF302 1116A NOEL1 OB 05
MAX FL LVL WIND 28 KT SW QUAD 1110Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 47 KT NE QUAD 1157 Z

[wxman57]

URNT12 KNHC 011235

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/1134Z
B. 23 deg 30 min N
078 deg 01 min W
C. 850 mb 1372 M
D. 33 kt
E. 253 deg 59 nm
F. 334 deg 028 kt
G. 249 deg 078 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 18 C/ 1523 m
J. 20 C/ 1527 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF302 1116A NOEL1 OB 05
MAX FL LVL WIND 28 KT SW QUAD 1110Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 47 KT NE QUAD 1157 Z

[Evil Jeremy]

The "wall" is building back in. This looks like this is the end of confusion for Noel.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Wow, look at what the king of hype and lies is still predicting!
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... tormNum=13

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 011228
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC THU NOV 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071101 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071101 1200 071102 0000 071102 1200 071103 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 78.3W 24.4N 78.5W 24.8N 77.9W 25.1N 75.9W
BAMD 23.5N 78.3W 25.2N 77.2W 27.3N 75.0W 30.4N 71.8W
BAMM 23.5N 78.3W 24.8N 77.7W 26.0N 76.0W 28.0N 72.9W
LBAR 23.5N 78.3W 24.7N 77.8W 26.5N 77.0W 28.7N 75.8W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071103 1200 071104 1200 071105 1200 071106 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 73.1W 28.6N 67.0W 30.8N 61.3W 31.2N 58.5W
BAMD 34.7N 68.8W 45.0N 58.6W 56.7N 45.8W 65.6N 30.3W
BAMM 31.4N 69.2W 40.4N 57.6W 49.6N 44.3W 58.9N 30.2W
LBAR 31.7N 73.7W 40.4N 63.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 69KTS 72KTS 65KTS 37KTS
DSHP 69KTS 72KTS 49KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 78.3W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 22.9N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 28DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 78.3W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 115NM

[wxman57]

The "wall" is building back in. This looks like this is the end of confusion for Noel.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

You are quite correct. Noel won't get much closer to Florida than it is right now. And with wind shear increasing and the trof axis moving in, Noel's chances of becoming a hurricane are just about gone. Should begin a transition to extratropical storm later today as it accelerates off to the NNE.

[Evil Jeremy]

NRL is saying that Noel has weakened to a 45KT storm with 1 995 MB pressure. Is this official?

[cycloneye]

From the Canadian Hurricane Center.

WOCN31 CWHX 011200
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...NOEL NEAR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.9 N AND LONGITUDE 78.3 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 150 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU BAHAMAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 992
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 01 9.00 AM 24.0N 78.5W 992 55 102
NOV 01 9.00 PM 27.2N 76.5W 992 60 111
NOV 02 9.00 AM 30.2N 73.8W 994 55 102 TRANSITIONING
NOV 02 9.00 PM 33.3N 70.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 AM 36.9N 67.5W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.3N 63.9W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 AM 45.6N 60.0W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 PM 50.7N 56.0W 974 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 AM 55.2N 52.9W 976 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 PM 60.0N 49.9W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH NOW THAT ATLANTIC CANADA WILL HAVE A WET
AND WINDY WEEKEND WITH A DEVELOPING STORM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING.
IF NOEL BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND WILL SIMPLY
BE WETTER AND WINDIER.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING STORM
WILL AFFECT NOVA SCOTIA PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. PRECEDING THAT WILL BE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NOEL
WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA
TODAY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS COULD GIVE A SIGNIFICANT SHOT
OF RAIN OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION
CENTRE HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THIS RAIN
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MEANS THAT GALES COULD BE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT ... WELL
AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE
WARNINGS BUT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE MENTIONED IN THE
OUTLOOKS FOR MARITIME WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS
FOR SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE INITIAL CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON NHC TRACK ISSUED NEAR
010900Z.

B. PROGNOSTIC
MOST MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS
EXCEPT A BIT FARTHER WEST. ACCORDINGLY WE SUSPECT THAT IF THE TRACK
IS IN ERROR IT COULD BE TOO FAR EAST.

BECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE DEVELOPING STORM AND THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN INTENSE LOW IN SOME STAGE OF
BEING POST-TROPICAL... EITHER AS A CLASSIC ET OR AS A WARM SECLUSION.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE CRITICALLY TIMED WITH LEADING MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM
NOEL OR THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. REGIONS OF EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON COULD RECEIVE 20-40 MM OF RAIN
WHILE WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA GETS NONE. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. INDEPENDENTLY OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM THE POST TROPICAL STORM WILL
CAUSE ANOTHER RAIN EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ATLANTIC
REGIONS.

GDFL CUMULATIVE QPF FOR BOTH THE FRONT AND POST-TROPICAL STORM
EXCEEDS 50 FOR ALL NS PEI MOST OF NFLD AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NB AND
IT EXCEEDS 100 IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF NS CAPE BRETON
AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NFLD. THE PATTERN AND NUMBERS ARE NOT
WILDLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR OWN MODELS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CANADIAN WATERS NOELS STATUS IS EXPECTED
TO BE POST TROPICAL OR A BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION OF ITS REMNANTS.
AS A RESULT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP.
WIND RADII ARE NOT PRODUCED AS IT DOES NOT APPLY AT THIS POINT.

END BOWYER/ROUSSEL