Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 011755
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/1717Z
B. 24 deg 53 min N
077 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1362 M
D. 53 KT
E. 134 deg 108 NM
F. 200 deg 59 KT
G. 133 deg 83 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 17C/ 1523 M
J. 21 C/ 1522 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 12 NM
P. AF302 1116A NOEL OB 14
MAX FL LVL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 1439Z
BROAD POORLY DEFINED WIND SHIFT IN CENTER
MAX FL TEMP 22C 121/25 NM FROM CENTER

[x-y-no]

Based on the latest VDM, it's still warm core (temperature profile better than it was yesterday).

Pressure is still dropping too, albeit pretty slowly.

[Frank2]

Per Downdraft's great post - meteorolgists are similar to farmers and fisherman, as they are very practical-minded folks - if it's there (whether it be corn, fish or a hurricane) it's there, but, if it isn't, it isn't, which doesn't sit well with today's media mindset that seems to enjoy making the most of deception as much as they do reporting facts...

That's why the late John Hope (TWC) was so well-liked - he'd say what was there, without making any more or less of it (I don't think he'd enjoy today's TWC, as it seems to be more entertainment than anything, but, I might be wrong)...

P.S. Thanks - you have a good weekend, too, Typhoon Willie (and to all here)...

[wxman57]

I'm wondering when the NHC will "hand it off", too. I'll be the only one on shift issuing advisories every 6 hours this weekend. As long as the NHC is putting out tracks, I'll do the same. My thinking is the NHC will issue the last advisory either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning, as it should be fully extratropical by then. It's going to be a very large storm across the Canadian Maritimes, though. Probably gale-force winds for southern New England (Cape Cod in particular). But no worse than they get with a moderate Nor'Easter in Cape Cod unless it tracks a bit more to the west.

[btangy]

I'm wondering when the NHC will "hand it off", too. I'll be the only one on shift issuing advisories every 6 hours this weekend. As long as the NHC is putting out tracks, I'll do the same. My thinking is the NHC will issue the last advisory either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning, as it should be fully extratropical by then. It's going to be a very large storm across the Canadian Maritimes, though. Probably gale-force winds for southern New England (Cape Cod in particular). But no worse than they get with a moderate Nor'Easter in Cape Cod unless it tracks a bit more to the west.

The local meteorologists haven't caught on to the shift in model tracks yet, so while it may be like a nor'easter, it still has the potential to be a high impact event. Might have <24 hours notice before conditions deteriorate along the coast. Just hope it doesn't track even further W giving Providence, Boston, and Portland a big event. ET is always very tricky, so I don't have any confidence in what Noel will decide to do in the next 72 hours.

[wxman57]

Maybe we will get a hurricane before he becomes extratropical?

That's difficult to say. Once Noel begins interacting with the upper trof tonight, upper-level winds will be increasing. The recon planes will likely find increasing FL winds. But the vertical wind profile for a system in transition won't fit the standard Fl-SFC wind reduction. Less of the stronger winds would make it down to the surface. I think it will likely have hurricane-force winds once it's purely ET, like a number of big storms in that part of the Atlantic from fall through spring.

The only difference it would make to me (us) is with our hurricane pool. One person has 14 named storms with 6 hurrianes, one has 14 and 5. We're waiting for Karen to be officially recorded as a hurricane, which would make it 14/5 for the year. If Noel becomes a hurricane before transitioning, then the person with 14/6 wins. Unfortunately, I have 14/8/4 so unless Noel breaks up into 3 separate storms (all named Noel) with all 3 hurricanes (2 majors), then I won't win the pool.

[wxman57]

The local meteorologists haven't caught on to the shift in model tracks yet, so while it may be like a nor'easter, it still has the potential to be a high impact event. Might have <24 hours notice before conditions deteriorate along the coast. Just hope it doesn't track even further W giving Providence, Boston, and Portland a big event. ET is always very tricky, so I don't have any confidence in what Noel will decide to do in the next 72 hours.

So, what do you do up there when you're expecting maybe winds of 35-45 mph and higher gusts? Do people stock up on supplies in case the power goes out?

[cycloneye]

WOCN31 CWHX 011800
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... NOEL TO BECOME A MAJOR FALL STORM FOR ATLANTIC CANADA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.0 N AND LONGITUDE 77.4 W... ABOUT 5 NAUTICAL MILES OR 9 KM
SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU BAHAMAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 990 MB. NOEL IS
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 01 3.00 PM 25.0N 77.4W 990 55 102
NOV 02 3.00 AM 27.1N 75.9W 988 60 111 TRANSITIONING
NOV 02 3.00 PM 30.2N 73.4W 989 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 AM 34.1N 70.4W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 38.5N 67.1W 980 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 AM 42.8N 63.4W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 PM 48.6N 58.0W 969 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 AM 53.2N 53.6W 964 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 PM 57.6N 48.6W 966 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 06 3.00 AM 58.4N 45.3W 970 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A MAJOR FALL STORM FOR MOST OF
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIMES SATURDAY AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TO NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
ISSUE WARNINGS OR MAKE STATEMENTS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS. HOWEVER THE
ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE MARITIMES ON THIS SYSTEM CONCURRENTLY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NOEL WHICH WILL BE A POST-
TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES CANADIAN WATERS. GALES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN
TO STORM FORCE. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY IT ISSUE WARNINGS WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE AND THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING NHC 15Z GUIDANCE ON ANALYSIS... WITH EXTRAPOLATION TO 18Z.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE HAVE NUDGED OUR FORECAST TRACK WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
LATEST CMC AND GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE WEST. BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH A LARGE SPRAWLING STORM
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US WE ARE CAUTIOUS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE TRACK IN THAT THE IMPACTED AREAS WILL STILL BE MOSTLY
THE SAME... IT IS ONLY THE DETAILS THAT REMAIN TO BE IRONED OUT.

THE GEM GLOBAL TAKES POST-TROPICAL NOEL THROUGH WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. THE REMAINDER OF DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL COME IN AFTER THIS FORECAST ISSUE AND IF THERE IS A
CONSENSUS IN THE MORE WESTERN TRACK THEN OUR 00Z PACKAGE WILL REFLECT
THIS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A MORE WESTERN TRACK WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS TYPE OF UNCERTAINTY IS A GOOD REMINDER OF
WHY WE DO NOT ISSUE WARNINGS WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS UNTIL WITHIN THE
TIME PERIOD OF THE PUBLIC FORECASTS. RAINFALL WARNINGS SEEM
INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN
AREAS HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED... HENCE THE REASON FOR NOT ISSUING
WARNINGS TOO EARLY.

WE FORECAST HURRICANE FORCE CONDITIONS WITH THE STORM AS IT ENTERS
CANADIAN WATERS AND INLAND WIND WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

WE WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT POTENTIAL STORM SURGE CONCERNS TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY BUT OUR INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT SINCE WE WILL BE
IN A FAVOURABLE POINT IN THE TIDAL CYCLE ON SATURDAY WE COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 0.5M OF ROOM BETWEEN THE HIGH TIDE AND THE HIGHEST
POSSIBLE TIDES IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS... WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE
AGAINST SURGE INNUDATION.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WIND RADII ARE NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED BAROCLINIC NATURE
OF THE STORM WHEN IT ARRIVES.

END BOWYER/FOGARTY

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrica ... e-services

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm wondering when the NHC will "hand it off", too. I'll be the only one on shift issuing advisories every 6 hours this weekend. As long as the NHC is putting out tracks, I'll do the same. My thinking is the NHC will issue the last advisory either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning, as it should be fully extratropical by then. It's going to be a very large storm across the Canadian Maritimes, though. Probably gale-force winds for southern New England (Cape Cod in particular). But no worse than they get with a moderate Nor'Easter in Cape Cod unless it tracks a bit more to the west.

12Z GFDL and HWRF both suggest some pockets of hurricane force winds on Cape Cod, with HWRF having 60 knot winds to Boston South Shore suburbs.

NWS BOX yesterday was talking about far offshore waters, the 6 am discussion was picking up on need for possible wind warnings and the such for Cape Cod.

[Sal Collaziano]

Squalls from Noel. West Palm Beach. 11/01/07 ~1:30pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR9KOLVFnPE

It's small but it blows up nicely...

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we will get a hurricane before he becomes extratropical?

That's difficult to say. Once Noel begins interacting with the upper trof tonight, upper-level winds will be increasing. The recon planes will likely find increasing FL winds. But the vertical wind profile for a system in transition won't fit the standard Fl-SFC wind reduction. Less of the stronger winds would make it down to the surface. I think it will likely have hurricane-force winds once it's purely ET, like a number of big storms in that part of the Atlantic from fall through spring.

The only difference it would make to me (us) is with our hurricane pool. One person has 14 named storms with 6 hurrianes, one has 14 and 5. We're waiting for Karen to be officially recorded as a hurricane, which would make it 14/5 for the year. If Noel becomes a hurricane before transitioning, then the person with 14/6 wins. Unfortunately, I have 14/8/4 so unless Noel breaks up into 3 separate storms (all named Noel) with all 3 hurricanes (2 majors), then I won't win the pool.

Of course hurricane season is not over yet though so those numbers are still subject to change...

[MiamiensisWx]

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

2:00 p.m. EDT advisory

The latest pressure is ~993 mb at Nassau, Bahamas.

29.32 in. Hg (0993 hPa)

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

That's quite accurate!!! The broad center is passing over the Bahamian capital.

[btangy]

So, what do you do up there when you're expecting maybe winds of 35-45 mph and higher gusts? Do people stock up on supplies in case the power goes out?

We all go out and sit on the beach and declare it a nice day, but gusts over hurricane force on the Cape and Nantucket per the latest GFS would be a far different story. Plus, you don't want to be a local meteorologist forecasting partly cloudy on Thurs evening for Saturday and having it rain 2 inches on Saturday by not paying attention to the possible model spread. I'm not -removed- for something major to happen. I would give it <20% chance of being equivalent to a major nor'easter for New England, but given the current uncertainty, one has to be wary given that if one is unlucky and draws the short straw, the potential impact is high.

[Sal Collaziano]

It's interesting to see that even in the middle of November, Tropical Storms can be pretty powerful. Even with sustained winds at only 40mph, this seemed like a pretty interesting event (Tropical Storm Gordon - November 13-16, 1994).

http://youtube.com/watch?v=EiNyAsSmI4s

[cycloneye]

And in mid november,1999,Lenny was a powerful cat 4 in the Caribbean.But not every year it has to be favorable in November for a powerful system to form as the factors dont align up every year to be favorable.

A offtopic note:

This Main Noel thread is the third most biggest thread ever in storm2k.Only the Hurricane Ivan (352 pages) Chris (265 pages) and Wilma (238 pages) threads are the most bigger.Anyone wondering about the Katrina thread,it had 114 pages.

[Cyclone1]

And in mid november,1999,Lenny was a powerful cat 4 in the Caribbean.But not every year it has to be favorable in November for a powerful system to form as the factors dont align up every year to be favorable.

A offtopic note:

This Main Noel thread is the third most biggest thread ever in storm2k.Only the Hurricane Ivan (352 pages) Chris (265 pages) Wilma (238 pages) threads are the most bigger.

viewtopic.php?f=55&t=87542&start=5280

Chris had 265.

[cycloneye]

Yes Cyclone1.I added it.

[btangy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
322 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...

.THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY...AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

MAZ005>007-013>024-RIZ001>008-020900-
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0005.071103T1000Z-071104T0400Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
322 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH.

ALONG THE COAST FROM PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

FARTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERSTATE 495 CORRIDOR...WINDS MAY BE A BIT
WEAKER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HOWEVER...
THESE LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES SINCE
MANY TREES STILL HAVE THEIR LEAVES.

KEEP IN MIND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WOULD DECREASE IF IT TRACKS FARTHER OFFSHORE...
BUT WOULD INCREASE OVER MORE OF THE AREA IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES
AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING PROPERTY DAMAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.
YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:







Looks like it continues to deepen.

[HURAKAN]

Bahamas Radar: