Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012259
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 20 20071101
224730 2500N 07746W 8430 01464 9966 +185 +165 341030 031 030 002 00
224800 2501N 07745W 8428 01465 9966 +186 +161 339031 031 031 001 00
224830 2502N 07743W 8430 01463 9966 +184 +161 337030 031 030 003 00
224900 2504N 07742W 8430 01462 9967 +183 +162 337029 029 030 001 00
224930 2505N 07741W 8428 01465 9966 +185 +161 337028 028 030 001 00
225000 2506N 07740W 8428 01463 9967 +180 +167 335025 026 029 002 00
225030 2507N 07739W 8430 01460 9971 +175 +172 340026 026 029 002 00
225100 2508N 07737W 8429 01461 9967 +175 +170 338025 025 029 002 00
225130 2509N 07736W 8428 01463 9967 +175 +170 342024 024 031 000 00
225200 2510N 07735W 8431 01457 9966 +175 +170 345024 025 032 001 00
225230 2511N 07734W 8432 01455 9963 +179 +168 341023 024 031 003 00
225300 2513N 07733W 8424 01464 9959 +185 +166 337022 023 031 002 00
225330 2514N 07731W 8431 01456 9958 +185 +165 338022 023 031 002 00
225400 2515N 07730W 8430 01456 9959 +184 +164 339022 023 030 002 00
225430 2516N 07729W 8429 01456 9958 +180 +166 336022 023 030 002 00
225500 2517N 07728W 8428 01455 9958 +180 +168 335019 020 029 002 00
225530 2518N 07726W 8428 01453 9957 +180 +168 334019 020 030 002 00
225600 2519N 07725W 8430 01451 9956 +183 +167 328018 019 030 002 00
225630 2521N 07724W 8428 01452 9954 +184 +166 321017 017 030 002 00
225700 2522N 07723W 8430 01452 9954 +184 +169 323016 016 031 001 00
$$
;

Headed for the core. 995mb pressure so far.

[Derek Ortt]

that was something else, but not the center

recon still has a little ways to go to reach the center (probably in 20 minutes)

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012309
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 21 20071101
225730 2523N 07721W 8427 01453 9953 +182 +170 315014 015 032 002 00
225800 2524N 07720W 8430 01448 9952 +184 +172 320017 018 031 000 00
225830 2525N 07719W 8428 01450 9949 +189 +163 316018 019 030 001 00
225900 2527N 07717W 8426 01451 9950 +183 +170 313016 016 030 001 00
225930 2528N 07716W 8428 01451 9946 +186 +170 313015 016 028 002 00
230000 2529N 07715W 8434 01441 9948 +182 +172 320016 017 029 000 00
230030 2530N 07714W 8431 01442 9949 +179 +172 322018 019 029 002 00
230100 2531N 07712W 8427 01449 9947 +181 +169 320019 020 032 001 00
230130 2532N 07711W 8430 01445 9946 +180 +171 327019 019 033 001 00
230200 2534N 07710W 8428 01444 9945 +184 +173 329019 019 033 001 00
230230 2535N 07709W 8428 01442 9944 +180 +177 335019 020 033 001 00
230300 2536N 07707W 8428 01442 9945 +175 +175 337019 019 034 002 00
230330 2537N 07706W 8427 01443 9944 +175 +175 339018 019 034 001 00
230400 2538N 07705W 8432 01439 9944 +177 +177 339019 019 034 002 03
230430 2539N 07703W 8426 01443 9941 +180 +179 336018 019 033 001 00
230500 2539N 07701W 8428 01439 9939 +180 +179 335017 018 031 001 00
230530 2540N 07700W 8428 01438 9938 +180 +179 332016 016 031 002 00
230600 2540N 07658W 8430 01437 9937 +180 +180 329015 016 031 002 00
230630 2541N 07656W 8430 01435 9936 +180 +179 324013 014 030 002 00
230700 2542N 07655W 8432 01432 9936 +180 +180 323013 014 032 002 00
$$
;

Inching towards the core. 994mb and falling.

[Category 5]

Pressure keeps dropping.

I read a ob from Abaco. Pressure 989mb, winds out of the north at 53mph.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

How long do you think the transition will take?

The models are keeping it in that in between category until landfall (asymmetric warm core). I remember that Wilma took forever and a day to transition (started prior to Florida landfall and took about 2 days and a landfall to complete it)

Realistically or how long until the NHC hands it off to the HPC as ET?

Those are two different questions and I may know the answer to the first somewhat...but the second? I haven't a clue.

It looks like ETT will take about 24 hours...considering the elongation of the LLC right now. Its getting butchered. Its also starting to get a tail...

HPC isn't going to pick it up if it's not expected to cause a flooding event in the U.S., though.

Also, on another note:

The death toll from Tropical Storm Noel in the Caribbean has risen to more than 100 - making it the deadliest storm of the Atlantic region this year.

Sixty-six people have now died in the Dominican Republic, where over 62,000 residents have fled their homes, and 40 are confirmed dead in Haiti.

The Bahamas has grounded flights and residents are boarding up their homes and stocking up on basic goods.

Rescuers have been struggling to reach cut-off communities on Hispaniola - the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A 30-day state of emergency has been declared in the Dominican Republic, where dozens of people are missing after chest-high flood waters surged across swathes of the country.

President Leonel Fernandez has launched an international appeal for loans of $200m (£96m) to rebuild ravaged roads, collapsed bridges and a smashed electrical network.

Helicopters and boats are trying to reach communities that have been isolated after three days of heavy rainfall.

The villages of Piedra Blanca and Villa Altagracia were swept away when swollen rivers overflowed.

Bienvenido Castillo, who was rescued by boat, lost his whole family in the storm.

"I've been here for 20 years and this has just finished me off. It took 60 chickens, 26 pigs - and my family," he said.

In Haiti, most of the bodies have been found in and around the capital, Port-au-Prince.

Rescuers fear the death toll could climb once they reach remote rural towns.

Haiti is especially vulnerable to flash floods and mudslides because most of its trees have been felled to make charcoal.

One person was also killed in Jamaica.

Noel has also wreaked havoc across provinces in central and eastern Cuba, but no deaths have been reported.

At least 2,000 homes have been damaged, thousands of tons of crops have been obliterated and 24,000 people have been evacuated, according to reports.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7071666.stm

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012319
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 22 20071101
230730 2543N 07653W 8428 01436 9936 +180 +180 318013 014 030 002 03
230800 2544N 07651W 8428 01435 9933 +180 +180 309014 014 031 002 00
230830 2545N 07650W 8428 01434 9933 +182 +180 304014 014 030 002 03
230900 2546N 07649W 8432 01429 9929 +185 +180 295014 015 030 001 00
230930 2547N 07648W 8431 01430 9928 +185 +179 288016 017 030 002 03
231000 2549N 07647W 8430 01429 9926 +189 +177 286016 017 032 001 00
231030 2551N 07646W 8427 01431 9925 +188 +177 293015 016 033 002 00
231100 2552N 07646W 8426 01432 9931 +177 +177 315015 016 033 001 03
231130 2554N 07645W 8430 01426 9931 +173 +173 324021 026 030 003 00
231200 2555N 07644W 8434 01422 9932 +169 +169 330025 026 029 004 03
231230 2556N 07642W 8422 01432 9931 +166 +166 325027 028 031 003 00
231300 2556N 07641W 8432 01418 9926 +172 +172 310026 029 034 002 03
231330 2558N 07639W 8427 01420 9920 +175 +175 298025 027 033 002 03
231400 2559N 07638W 8426 01419 9919 +174 +174 301026 029 031 003 00
231430 2600N 07637W 8431 01411 9913 +177 +177 292027 029 029 002 00
231500 2602N 07636W 8431 01409 9905 +186 +184 291028 030 031 001 03
231530 2603N 07636W 8430 01408 9899 +191 +181 307028 029 029 002 00
231600 2605N 07635W 8428 01403 9898 +181 +181 300031 032 029 000 00
231630 2606N 07634W 8428 01398 9887 +190 +183 301032 033 028 001 00
231700 2608N 07634W 8425 01398 9886 +185 +185 297030 031 025 002 00
$$
;

989mb - and maybe not the lowest? Surface winds around 25 kt at that point.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure keeps dropping.

I read a ob from Abaco. Pressure 989mb, winds out of the north at 53mph.

Pressure is probably 986mb in my view, since they recorded 988.6mb with a 25 kt SFMR...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012329
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 23 20071101
231730 2609N 07633W 8431 01388 9879 +190 +185 292027 029 024 002 03
231800 2611N 07632W 8429 01386 9872 +194 +182 275024 025 022 002 00
231830 2612N 07631W 8431 01379 9865 +201 +179 273023 024 022 002 03
231900 2614N 07631W 8422 01389 9863 +202 +177 281019 020 021 000 00
231930 2616N 07631W 8423 01388 9865 +200 +181 292018 021 012 002 00
232000 2617N 07631W 8430 01377 9854 +217 +173 304018 022 014 001 03
232030 2619N 07631W 8426 01374 9848 +218 +171 292014 016 006 001 03
232100 2620N 07630W 8427 01374 9845 +215 +171 266014 015 019 000 03
232130 2622N 07629W 8439 01355 9839 +221 +169 234015 017 015 002 03
232200 2624N 07629W 8428 01365 9832 +227 +165 221010 014 011 002 03
232230 2625N 07630W 8432 01356 9821 +245 +154 204005 010 014 001 00
232300 2627N 07631W 8432 01357 9817 +254 +148 257003 008 013 001 00
232330 2629N 07632W 8435 01353 9826 +230 +164 309013 015 016 001 00
232400 2630N 07632W 8431 01354 9824 +226 +169 328015 016 024 001 03
232430 2631N 07632W 8417 01366 9826 +219 +173 309015 018 999 999 03
232500 2633N 07631W 8429 01352 9818 +234 +160 250009 012 018 000 03
232530 2634N 07630W 8438 01342 9815 +237 +157 193017 026 018 002 00
232600 2635N 07628W 8441 01339 9826 +216 +170 171033 035 028 003 00
232630 2636N 07627W 8448 01333 9827 +214 +170 166037 038 030 001 00
232700 2637N 07625W 8445 01335 9837 +196 +180 176039 041 032 003 00
$$
;

982mb!!! Hurricane Noel, maybe?? Need the winds to confirm.

[cpdaman]

981 BOOM

[CrazyC83]

981.5mb pressure extrapolated (15 kt SFMR at the time - so probably 981mb) - rapid intensification or missed the lowest pressure last time?

[cycloneye]

981 mbs is what recon found.

[CrazyC83]

981 BOOM

Yep, probably 981mb after accounting for the surface winds. Now they appear to be going to the NE Quad to see if they have hurricane-force winds.

[Noles2006]

I wonder how Noel will impact the FSU/BC game... 8:00 p.m. Saturday night in Chestnut Hill, MA...

[CrazyC83]

Hard to believe but Noel is now the 3rd most intense storm of the season with the 981-982 pressure...

[cpdaman]

Given the rapid intensification, the wind driven swells may give one last UMMPH to the beach erosion on the florida coast. could be devestating and surprising , because the winds are still at 10 degrees N or NNE in lake worth for high tide in the wee hours 3 ish.

i was on the beach at boca just before sunset and besides being beautiful, two observations
the surf was increasing in size FAST and the gulf stream was starting to go bonkers. i would HOPE nobody is caught in the gulf stream off palm beach tonite, gulfstream will be well over 20 feet.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012339
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 24 20071101
232730 2639N 07623W 8385 01409 9844 +197 +176 184038 039 032 003 00
232800 2640N 07622W 8428 01362 9838 +211 +173 179040 043 040 004 00
232830 2641N 07620W 8420 01375 9841 +213 +170 177045 045 041 003 00
232900 2643N 07619W 8423 01376 9851 +203 +172 179050 053 039 005 00
232930 2644N 07617W 8423 01383 9864 +192 +177 179053 053 037 006 00
233000 2645N 07615W 8424 01387 9880 +186 +169 176052 053 036 005 00
233030 2646N 07614W 8426 01394 9881 +189 +174 174053 055 037 006 00
233100 2648N 07612W 8419 01404 9889 +182 +181 171052 053 037 006 00
233130 2649N 07611W 8423 01405 9893 +182 +182 169052 053 040 006 00
233200 2650N 07609W 8424 01407 9902 +174 +174 169052 053 038 006 00
233230 2651N 07608W 8417 01418 9907 +174 +174 171050 051 038 007 00
233300 2652N 07606W 8424 01413 9913 +169 +169 170046 048 039 009 00
233330 2654N 07604W 8423 01419 9913 +173 +173 165043 043 040 010 00
233400 2655N 07603W 8419 01424 9917 +173 +173 167045 046 040 010 00
233430 2656N 07601W 8423 01422 9923 +165 +165 168048 050 038 011 00
233500 2657N 07600W 8419 01427 9933 +156 +156 164046 055 048 016 00
233530 2658N 07558W 8428 01413 9924 +154 +154 164049 061 060 028 01
233600 2700N 07557W 8439 01399 9919 +152 +152 137052 056 066 039 01
233630 2701N 07555W 8432 01405 9990 +151 +999 142055 057 067 043 01
233700 2702N 07554W 8419 01427 9990 +150 +999 150056 059 066 054 01
$$
;

61 kt FL, 67 kt SFMR - SFMR supports a hurricane, FL winds do not yet

[deltadog03]

I think we are about to have a hurricane!!!

[RL3AO]

Expect hurricane warnings here at the intermediate.

EDIT: Keep forgeting this is just for obs...sorry.