Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

186
URNT15 KNHC 021126
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 21 20071102
111330 3102N 07345W 6964 03086 0045 +039 +039 069031 031 013 011 03
111400 3102N 07344W 6966 03086 0057 +031 +031 074032 033 999 999 03
111430 3104N 07343W 6965 03089 0058 +032 +032 078033 033 999 999 03
111500 3105N 07345W 6964 03093 0044 +042 +042 075032 033 999 999 03
111530 3104N 07347W 6967 03089 0035 +049 +049 069032 033 017 025 03
111600 3102N 07349W 6970 03083 0037 +047 +047 065032 033 032 042 03
111630 3100N 07350W 6967 03084 0039 +042 +042 067034 035 027 009 03
111700 3059N 07351W 6964 03083 0045 +035 +035 063036 037 028 010 00
111730 3057N 07353W 6967 03078 0051 +029 +029 054035 035 031 010 00
111800 3055N 07354W 6967 03077 0062 +020 +020 054037 037 029 011 00
111830 3054N 07356W 6967 03075 0057 +023 +023 055038 039 031 013 00
111900 3052N 07357W 6965 03076 0061 +019 +019 051040 041 032 014 00
111930 3051N 07359W 6964 03073 0061 +016 +016 049041 042 037 016 00
112000 3049N 07400W 6968 03067 0059 +015 +015 050042 042 038 016 03
112030 3047N 07402W 6967 03067 0057 +015 +015 050044 044 038 018 01
112100 3045N 07403W 6967 03064 0054 +015 +015 052045 046 040 019 01
112130 3043N 07404W 6968 03062 9990 +014 +999 051045 046 039 020 01
112200 3041N 07405W 6965 03064 9990 +016 +999 057047 050 041 023 01
112230 3039N 07406W 6966 03069 9990 +031 +999 071045 046 045 026 01
112300 3038N 07407W 6963 03067 9990 +039 +999 076047 049 047 025 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

245
URNT15 KNHC 021135
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 22 20071102
112330 3036N 07408W 6967 03067 9990 +041 +999 074047 048 047 026 01
112400 3034N 07409W 6977 03052 0030 +042 +042 080049 051 047 028 00
112430 3032N 07410W 6963 03069 0024 +042 +042 078053 057 049 028 00
112500 3030N 07411W 6969 03056 0025 +040 +040 078054 058 053 028 00
112530 3029N 07412W 6964 03060 0018 +045 +045 083056 058 053 028 00
112600 3027N 07413W 6970 03053 0015 +046 +046 084063 064 052 026 00
112630 3025N 07414W 6969 03054 0010 +049 +049 089062 064 049 027 00
112700 3023N 07415W 6957 03065 0007 +050 +050 088062 063 052 027 00
112730 3022N 07415W 6976 03042 0003 +051 +051 102056 057 052 026 00
112800 3020N 07416W 6968 03053 9999 +055 +055 105049 051 051 025 00
112830 3018N 07417W 6966 03054 9996 +057 +057 104048 049 050 022 00
112900 3017N 07418W 6965 03050 9993 +056 +056 105048 050 051 023 00
112930 3015N 07419W 6963 03050 9996 +052 +052 103043 046 051 024 00
113000 3013N 07420W 6973 03042 9991 +057 +057 107043 045 047 028 00
113030 3012N 07421W 6967 03048 9989 +059 +059 125055 059 055 027 00
113100 3010N 07421W 6957 03053 9975 +064 +064 133057 059 056 024 00
113130 3009N 07422W 6962 03054 9975 +066 +066 131059 062 055 023 00
113200 3008N 07423W 6968 03044 9973 +069 +069 131055 057 053 022 00
113230 3006N 07424W 6959 03054 9980 +063 +063 129059 064 055 022 00
113300 3005N 07425W 6963 03044 9980 +062 +062 129052 055 053 019 00
$$
;

64 knts

[HURAKAN]

748
URNT15 KNHC 021145
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 23 20071102
113330 3003N 07425W 6969 03048 9982 +061 +061 132058 060 050 018 00
113400 3002N 07426W 6959 03053 9966 +062 +062 131056 061 053 017 00
113430 3000N 07427W 6981 03024 9953 +072 +072 138054 056 053 015 00
113500 2959N 07428W 6978 03027 9971 +057 +057 134052 055 050 019 00
113530 2958N 07428W 6963 03047 9946 +075 +075 129051 054 053 018 00
113600 2956N 07429W 6974 03028 9951 +067 +067 127054 058 056 020 00
113630 2955N 07430W 6960 03035 9951 +060 +060 122052 055 055 025 00
113700 2953N 07431W 6983 03013 9948 +067 +067 126048 052 053 032 00
113730 2951N 07432W 6956 03046 9961 +058 +058 120050 055 057 029 00
113800 2950N 07432W 6986 03012 9964 +057 +057 125039 044 059 021 00
113830 2948N 07433W 6944 03060 9957 +059 +059 132041 049 058 021 03
113900 2947N 07434W 6971 03029 9962 +059 +059 117043 044 057 025 00
113930 2945N 07435W 6977 03024 9964 +055 +055 111042 043 059 019 00
114000 2944N 07436W 6965 03039 9961 +058 +058 113044 052 056 020 00
114030 2942N 07437W 6943 03060 9956 +057 +057 114050 058 056 028 00
114100 2940N 07437W 6981 03014 9961 +053 +053 105038 039 056 028 00
114130 2939N 07438W 6971 03026 9962 +054 +054 102040 043 061 025 00
114200 2937N 07439W 6952 03045 9957 +056 +056 101040 044 063 022 00
114230 2936N 07440W 6972 03024 9954 +060 +060 096038 042 062 021 00
114300 2934N 07441W 6961 03038 9954 +059 +059 099037 039 064 017 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

628
URNT15 KNHC 021156
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 24 20071102
114330 2932N 07442W 6968 03030 9954 +059 +059 095036 039 062 016 00
114400 2930N 07443W 6950 03046 9948 +060 +060 090033 034 069 022 03
114430 2929N 07443W 6962 03025 9948 +055 +055 091036 040 066 020 00
114500 2927N 07443W 6972 03015 9935 +064 +064 088038 040 060 018 03
114530 2925N 07443W 6953 03037 9944 +058 +058 088034 037 051 026 00
114600 2923N 07443W 6965 03022 9931 +067 +067 067034 037 059 020 03
114630 2921N 07443W 6970 03011 9918 +075 +075 071031 033 060 012 00
114700 2920N 07443W 6959 03027 9919 +074 +074 060030 032 052 011 03
114730 2918N 07442W 6971 03007 9914 +075 +075 061029 030 042 009 00
114800 2916N 07441W 6964 03012 9902 +080 +080 058029 030 027 009 03
114830 2915N 07440W 6967 03008 9891 +085 +085 056026 027 023 009 00
114900 2913N 07439W 6971 02996 9882 +089 +089 053023 024 021 008 00
114930 2912N 07438W 6966 02998 9881 +087 +087 053022 023 024 010 00
115000 2910N 07437W 6960 03002 9874 +088 +088 058017 020 020 009 00
115030 2909N 07436W 6966 02992 9857 +099 +099 049013 015 025 010 00
115100 2907N 07435W 6969 02987 9854 +098 +098 052011 013 031 012 00
115130 2906N 07433W 6967 02983 9861 +091 +091 038010 012 023 012 03
115200 2904N 07432W 6972 02972 9847 +099 +099 030010 011 020 010 03
115230 2903N 07430W 6966 02981 9841 +104 +104 034010 011 011 014 03
115300 2902N 07429W 6968 02980 9838 +105 +105 065009 010 012 007 00
$$
;

984 mb with 10 knts

[Thunder44]

URNT15 KNHC 021205
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 25 20071102
115330 2901N 07427W 6970 02973 9833 +109 +105 076009 011 014 007 03
115400 2900N 07426W 6963 02981 9827 +111 +108 065007 008 008 007 03
115430 2858N 07425W 6967 02976 9822 +115 +098 057009 009 012 007 00
115500 2856N 07425W 6969 02971 9815 +116 +090 053007 008 010 008 00
115530 2855N 07425W 6966 02969 9813 +120 +088 040006 006 000 007 00
115600 2853N 07425W 6969 02967 9807 +120 +087 025006 006 000 008 00
115630 2851N 07425W 6961 02975 9807 +120 +089 005007 008 000 007 00
115700 2849N 07424W 6969 02962 9800 +126 +084 354007 008 000 008 00
115730 2847N 07424W 6971 02961 9796 +127 +083 336007 007 000 007 00
115800 2845N 07424W 6968 02962 9790 +129 +080 332008 010 000 007 00
115830 2844N 07423W 6963 02967 9783 +135 +074 337009 010 000 007 00
115900 2842N 07423W 6969 02960 9785 +135 +076 315006 007 000 007 00
115930 2840N 07423W 6964 02969 9782 +135 +079 291008 009 000 007 00
120000 2838N 07422W 6968 02961 9784 +135 +081 273009 009 000 007 00
120030 2836N 07422W 6967 02960 9785 +136 +081 249009 010 000 007 03
120100 2836N 07422W 6967 02960 9780 +141 +074 254011 013 000 007 03
120130 2833N 07421W 6969 02961 9779 +143 +071 257013 013 000 007 00
120200 2831N 07420W 6961 02970 9780 +140 +072 251015 017 000 007 03
120230 2830N 07419W 6967 02962 9779 +144 +067 256019 020 000 008 00
120300 2829N 07417W 6969 02961 9781 +140 +070 253020 021 000 007 00
$$

Lowest extrap pressure about 978mb.

[Thunder44]

URNT15 KNHC 021215
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 26 20071102
120330 2827N 07415W 6967 02966 9784 +139 +072 243023 026 000 007 00
120400 2826N 07414W 6966 02967 9797 +131 +069 248028 031 000 007 00
120430 2825N 07412W 6967 02965 9790 +133 +072 250030 031 000 007 00
120500 2823N 07411W 6969 02964 9789 +134 +071 249034 036 000 007 00
120530 2822N 07409W 6972 02959 9790 +134 +072 246037 038 000 007 00
120600 2821N 07408W 6964 02970 9787 +135 +066 246039 039 000 007 00
120630 2819N 07406W 6969 02966 9788 +138 +061 246038 038 000 007 00
120700 2818N 07404W 6963 02975 9790 +139 +060 250039 040 000 007 00
120730 2817N 07403W 6969 02966 9786 +143 +058 248041 042 004 007 00
120800 2815N 07401W 6967 02977 9790 +144 +061 247044 045 004 007 00
120830 2814N 07400W 6966 02977 9804 +135 +061 245048 049 005 007 00
120900 2813N 07358W 6970 02975 9801 +138 +067 246050 051 006 007 00
120930 2811N 07357W 6967 02984 9801 +139 +068 247048 049 011 007 00
121000 2810N 07355W 6966 02985 9796 +145 +066 248046 047 018 007 00
121030 2809N 07353W 6969 02986 9797 +147 +060 248044 045 020 007 00
121100 2807N 07352W 6968 02987 9810 +139 +072 248046 047 021 007 00
121130 2806N 07350W 6968 02993 9824 +131 +079 2;FF&WvV
121200 2805N 07349W 6968 02994 9825 +130 +071 246049 050 031 007 00
121230 2803N 07347W 6967 03000 9830 +131 +073 242049 049 033 007 00
121300 2802N 07345W 6965 03000 9834 +127 +083 240050 050 032 007 00
$$

[Thunder44]

Latest recon is finding a larger area of central minimum pressure, colder temps and lower dewpoints, and stronger winds well away from the center. Noel is rapidly becoming ET.

[drezee]

121630 2753N 07335W 6966 03026 9877 +115 +057 227087 090 054 007 00

90 kts

[drezee]

90 kt flight level winds just recorded and 979 extrapolated pressure WATCH OUT New England!

[drezee]

Station 41047 - NE Bahamas
over 200 nautical miles from center

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
7:35 am 43.1 kts SSE ( 156 deg true )

[Thunder44]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021231 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 02/11:59:30Z
B. 28 deg 40 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. NA mb 2925 m
D. 64 kt
E. 005 deg 107 nm
F. 090 deg 065 kt
G. 005 deg 106 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 15 C/ 2927 m
K. C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 1316A NOEL OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SE QUAD 12:16:30 Z
SFC WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
CORRECTED TO ADD 700MB IN ITEM CHARLIE AND APPEND MAX FL LVL WINDS OUTBOUND
;

[TheEuropean]

746
URNT15 KNHC 021235
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 28 20071102
122330 2738N 07317W 6972 03057 9947 +094 +056 214060 060 046 007 00
122400 2736N 07315W 6963 03073 9954 +091 +057 218060 060 045 007 00
122430 2736N 07315W 6963 03073 9961 +087 +061 218059 060 042 007 00
122500 2734N 07312W 6967 03072 9969 +084 +059 219061 065 039 007 00
122530 2733N 07311W 6967 03074 9991 +070 +064 216066 067 038 007 00
122600 2732N 07310W 6963 03080 9989 +073 +059 215067 068 040 007 00
122630 2731N 07308W 6963 03081 9993 +071 +062 214068 069 040 007 00
122700 2730N 07307W 6966 03083 0003 +065 +065 214068 069 040 007 00
122730 2729N 07306W 6966 03081 0005 +065 +065 214067 068 039 007 00
122800 2727N 07305W 6967 03083 0004 +066 +066 213065 066 038 007 00
122830 2726N 07303W 6965 03090 0007 +065 +065 214065 066 037 008 00
122900 2725N 07302W 6964 03090 0005 +068 +068 212066 067 036 007 00
122930 2724N 07301W 6964 03089 0006 +070 +070 211065 067 034 008 00
123000 2723N 07259W 6965 03092 0009 +070 +070 213063 063 035 007 00
123030 2722N 07258W 6965 03093 0012 +070 +070 213065 065 035 008 00
123100 2721N 07257W 6971 03091 0016 +070 +070 212067 068 035 007 00
123130 2720N 07256W 6968 03097 0016 +072 +072 215066 067 034 007 00
123200 2719N 07254W 6967 03099 0012 +076 +069 216065 066 034 007 00
123230 2717N 07253W 6971 03097 0012 +076 +069 215064 064 033 007 00
123300 2716N 07252W 6963 03109 0011 +080 +067 215063 063 031 007 00
$$

Do anyone have the obs data till 1223?

[drezee]

Storm NOEL: Observed By Air Force #304
Storm #16 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 90KT (103.5mph 166.7km/h) In SE Quadrant At 12:16:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 81.0KT (93.2mph 150.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SFC WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR CORRECTED TO ADD 700MB IN ITEM CHARLIE AND APPEND MAX FL LVL WINDS OUTBOUND
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, November 02, 2007 7:59:00 AM (Fri, 2 Nov 2007 11:59:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 28° 40' N 074° 23' W (28.7°N 74.4°W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 64KT (73.6MPH 118.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 107nm (123.05miles) From Center At Bearing 5°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 65KT (74.75mph 120.4km/h) From 090°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 106nm (121.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 5°
Minimum pressure: 981 mb (28.97in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 5nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[TheEuropean]

953
URNT15 KNHC 021245
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 29 20071102
123330 2715N 07250W 6971 03103 0009 +083 +069 215063 063 032 007 00
123400 2714N 07249W 6967 03107 0010 +084 +066 214063 063 032 007 00
123430 2713N 07248W 6967 03108 0010 +085 +074 214062 062 031 007 00
123500 2712N 07246W 6968 03109 9990 +089 +999 213061 062 033 007 01
123530 2711N 07245W 6967 03112 9990 +088 +999 214061 062 032 007 01
123600 2709N 07244W 6971 03107 9990 +088 +999 213062 062 032 007 01
123630 2708N 07242W 6966 03118 9990 +081 +999 214061 062 031 007 01
123700 2707N 07241W 6967 03117 0019 +084 +080 215060 061 030 007 00
123730 2706N 07240W 6973 03111 0020 +084 +072 213059 060 028 007 00
123800 2705N 07238W 6966 03117 0022 +082 +079 212059 061 026 008 00
123830 2704N 07237W 6960 03127 0027 +080 +078 213059 060 028 008 00
123900 2703N 07236W 6967 03120 0030 +079 +072 214058 058 027 008 00
123930 2702N 07235W 6963 03129 0028 +084 +057 216057 058 027 007 00
124000 2700N 07233W 6968 03125 0024 +089 +056 215055 055 025 007 00
124030 2659N 07232W 6967 03124 0027 +088 +050 216058 059 027 007 00
124100 2658N 07231W 6965 03128 0027 +089 +053 213058 058 027 007 00
124130 2657N 07229W 6968 03126 0029 +088 +057 212059 060 025 007 00
124200 2656N 07228W 6966 03129 0034 +085 +068 211059 060 026 007 00
124230 2655N 07227W 6965 03132 0029 +090 +060 211059 059 027 007 00
124300 2654N 07225W 6967 03131 0030 +089 +066 210058 059 028 007 00
$$

[Sal Collaziano]

What are the chances that Noel gives some strong winds to Long Island, New York?

[HURAKAN]

Just to show where the 90 kts wind was found and how Noel begins to look non-tropical.

[Thunder44]

Station 41047 - NE Bahamas
over 200 nautical miles from center

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
7:35 am 43.1 kts SSE ( 156 deg true )

I seen several ship reports of TS force sustained winds even farther away from center, especially to the South and East. TS Force (or Gale Force) extend outward over 350 miles from center now.

Here are the ship and buoy plots on GE as of 12z. The ones colored in yellow are reporting sustained winds TS force. I also plotted the vortex fix to show how far away they are from center:

[HURAKAN]

ET Noel shaping up.

[TheEuropean]

789
URNT15 KNHC 021256
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 30 20071102
124330 2652N 07224W 6963 03133 0030 +090 +071 211057 057 029 007 00
124400 2651N 07223W 6967 03130 0034 +087 +079 211058 058 030 006 00
124430 2650N 07221W 6967 03144 0039 +087 +082 211057 058 027 007 03
124500 2651N 07219W 6968 03138 0038 +090 +082 209060 061 999 999 03
124530 2653N 07219W 6968 03133 0035 +090 +080 205060 060 999 999 03
124600 2655N 07219W 6968 03131 0026 +092 +077 203059 060 031 007 03
124630 2657N 07219W 6970 03127 0026 +090 +078 203060 060 031 007 00
124700 2659N 07219W 6967 03130 0027 +090 +077 203060 060 031 007 00
124730 2702N 07219W 6967 03126 0026 +089 +080 203061 061 031 006 00
124800 2704N 07219W 6963 03130 0027 +086 +084 203062 062 031 007 00
124830 2706N 07219W 6968 03123 0030 +083 +083 205063 064 031 007 00
124900 2708N 07218W 6967 03130 0029 +084 +084 20503f&6vV
124930 2711N 07218W 6964 03130 0023 +089 +076 204064 064 033 006 00
125000 2713N 07218W 6969 03118 0022 +090 +073 203064 064 033 007 00
125030 2715N 07218W 6968 03122 0020 +089 +072 202066 066 034 007 00
125100 2718N 07217W 6967 03122 0020 +087 +077 201067 068 034 006 00
125130 2720N 07217W 6967 03119 0016 +088 +076 201069 069 033 007 00
125200 2722N 07217W 6967 03114 0015 +087 +080 202070 070 035 007 00
125230 2725N 07217W 6968 03116 0018 +085 +080 202069 069 035 007 00
125300 2727N 07217W 6969 03113 0017 +085 +071 202070 070 036 007 00
$$

[storm4u]

looks like i might have to go to the cape today for some pics should be fun!!