Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[JonathanBelles]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021656
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 54 20071102
164330 2955N 07344W 6969 02970 9799 +133 +074 271011 011 000 007 00
164400 2956N 07343W 6965 02973 9801 +131 +071 255007 010 000 007 00
164430 2958N 07342W 6968 02968 9805 +126 +073 255003 003 000 007 00
164500 2959N 07341W 6967 02968 9809 +120 +091 189001 002 000 008 00
164530 3001N 07340W 6967 02968 9812 +116 +099 120003 003 000 007 00
164600 3002N 07339W 6963 02970 9815 +112 +111 124002 003 000 007 03
164630 3004N 07339W 6966 02967 9820 +099 +099 108005 008 007 011 05
164700 3006N 07339W 6969 02968 9837 +094 +094 077008 010 007 010 00
164730 3006N 07339W 6969 02968 9834 +097 +097 073008 009 007 010 00
164800 3009N 07339W 6965 02973 9835 +103 +103 096008 009 010 008 03
164830 3009N 07339W 6965 02973 9826 +110 +103 109007 008 010 008 03
164900 3011N 07341W 6970 02980 9843 +106 +104 077007 008 999 999 03
164930 3009N 07341W 6969 02968 9826 +107 +107 019005 006 004 008 03
165000 3008N 07340W 6967 02969 9827 +105 +105 354006 009 007 009 00
165030 3006N 07340W 6969 02965 9846 +088 +088 016007 009 009 009 00
165100 3004N 07339W 6966 02965 9831 +098 +098 006005 007 005 010 00
165130 3002N 07338W 6970 02963 9813 +112 +112 331004 006 000 008 00
165200 3002N 07338W 6970 02963 9823 +108 +108 331004 006 000 008 00
165230 2959N 07337W 6967 02965 9814 +119 +076 267006 008 000 007 00
165300 2959N 07337W 6967 02965 9803 +124 +077 262007 009 000 007 00
$$
;

[RattleMan]

I also wanted to mention that my avatar is a self updating picture of the Floater on Noel.

I noticed, very cool. Would like to know how you did that?

He just put the URL of his avatar as http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl.jpg .

[JonathanBelles]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021706
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 55 20071102
165330 2956N 07335W 6967 02961 9804 +126 +072 258012 014 000 007 00
165400 2956N 07335W 6967 02961 9803 +127 +073 259014 016 000 007 00
165430 2952N 07333W 6967 02967 9796 +130 +087 262018 019 000 007 00
165500 2951N 07332W 6967 02964 9797 +127 +089 267020 021 000 007 00
165530 2951N 07332W 6967 02964 9799 +126 +090 267021 021 000 007 00
165600 2948N 07330W 6970 02961 9808 +120 +096 264020 021 000 007 00
165630 2946N 07329W 6968 02963 9808 +119 +092 262021 021 000 007 00
165700 2944N 07328W 6964 02965 9809 +120 +090 265021 022 000 007 00
165730 2943N 07327W 6968 02965 9810 +118 +092 267023 024 000 007 00
165800 2941N 07326W 6967 02966 9814 +120 +088 269024 025 000 007 03
165830 2939N 07327W 6969 02973 9818 +120 +092 272024 024 999 999 03
165900 2939N 07328W 6960 02976 9816 +116 +097 270022 023 007 017 03
165930 2939N 07330W 6872 03088 9812 +112 +094 271023 023 000 007 00
170000 2940N 07332W 6706 03291 9815 +103 +083 268025 026 000 007 00
170030 2940N 07333W 6502 03560 9826 +084 +078 272025 026 001 006 00
170100 2941N 07335W 6298 03824 9815 +077 +052 279024 025 007 006 00
170130 2941N 07337W 6093 04099 9800 +075 +029 281026 026 016 006 00
170200 2941N 07339W 5899 04340 9757 +064 +017 284023 025 022 006 00
170230 2942N 07341W 5743 04563 9757 +052 +006 274022 022 023 006 00
170300 2942N 07343W 5593 04778 9762 +038 -007 270025 026 023 006 00
$$

[JonathanBelles]

I also wanted to mention that my avatar is a self updating picture of the Floater on Noel.

I noticed, very cool. Would like to know how you did that?

He just put the URL of his avatar as http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl.jpg .

yep.

[Thunder44]

URNT15 KNHC 021713
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 56 20071102
170330 2943N 07345W 5463 04987 0070 +030 -058 264031 033 023 007 00
170400 2943N 07345W 5463 04987 0077 +030 -079 264033 033 023 007 00
170430 2944N 07349W 5372 05125 0080 +016 -041 267027 032 027 006 00
170500 2944N 07351W 5373 05128 0090 +008 -019 273022 024 029 006 00
170530 2945N 07354W 5373 05133 0095 +014 -034 281026 028 031 006 00
170600 2945N 07357W 5374 05135 0099 +007 -012 280024 027 041 007 00
170630 2946N 07359W 5377 05130 0101 +000 -011 294020 021 044 006 00
170700 2947N 07402W 5377 05136 0102 +007 -043 299018 020 057 006 00
170730 2947N 07405W 5385 05126 0105 +012 -054 290021 025 063 006 00
170800 2948N 07407W 5379 05130 0102 +012 -049 293019 023 065 006 00
170830 2948N 07409W 5381 05136 0102 +011 -047 293014 017 065 005 00
170900 2949N 07412W 5376 05137 0103 +009 -050 289010 013 065 005 00
170930 2949N 07414W 5380 05131 0105 +010 -033 316010 014 065 006 00
171000 2950N 07416W 5378 05135 0107 +007 -034 306014 016 063 005 00
171030 2950N 07418W 5381 05138 0106 +006 -030 324011 013 061 006 00
171100 2951N 07421W 5380 05134 0107 +005 -037 337011 013 061 006 00
171130 2951N 07423W 5378 05145 0109 +001 -022 333013 014 060 006 00
171200 2952N 07425W 5375 05148 0109 -003 -013 334013 014 058 006 00
171230 2952N 07427W 5378 05141 0108 -007 -011 326011 013 056 006 00
171300 2952N 07427W 5378 05141 0108 -008 -008 332012 014 055 006 00
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

in jupiter its like knock you on your ass windy out. any explanations?

[JonathanBelles]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021736
AF304 1316A NOEL HDOB 58 20071102
172330 3002N 07513W 4659 06277 0188 -096 -376 297054 055 034 006 00
172400 3002N 07515W 4595 06385 0196 -103 -367 293054 054 031 006 00
172430 3002N 07517W 4537 06485 0202 -104 -382 287052 054 026 007 00
172500 3003N 07518W 4480 06577 0205 -098 -388 283048 051 022 006 00
172530 3003N 07520W 4429 06666 0210 -101 -371 284044 044 019 006 00
172600 3003N 07522W 4385 06742 0215 -106 -377 284042 043 018 006 00
172630 3004N 07524W 4343 06817 0220 -111 -361 282039 041 012 007 00
172700 3004N 07526W 4314 06869 0224 -117 -361 282040 041 011 007 00
172730 3005N 07528W 4272 06944 0229 -122 -388 281038 039 006 007 00
172800 3005N 07530W 4235 07010 0233 -127 -378 279037 037 001 006 00
172830 3005N 07532W 4199 07079 0240 -133 -387 277035 036 000 006 00
172900 3006N 07534W 4160 07147 0243 -136 -359 275032 033 000 007 00
172930 3006N 07536W 4128 07208 0248 -139 -330 274029 032 000 007 00
173000 3007N 07538W 4098 07264 0251 -144 -308 274027 028 006 007 00
173030 3007N 07540W 4054 07343 0255 -148 -279 271023 024 008 006 00
173100 3007N 07542W 3998 07449 0262 -155 -238 266019 020 003 006 00
173130 3008N 07544W 3938 07564 0270 -163 -223 264016 017 001 006 00
173200 3008N 07546W 3923 07595 0274 -160 -196 257012 015 001 007 00
173230 3009N 07549W 3920 07601 0276 -162 -200 253016 017 004 006 00
173300 3009N 07551W 3922 07600 0278 -160 -215 254013 014 003 006 00
$$
;

[HenkL]

UZNT13 KNHC 021717
XXAA 52177 99300 70736 11603 99981 23802 07014 00669 ///// /////
92514 22202 06502 85249 19409 35509 70907 12208 35002 88999 77999
31313 09608 81651
61616 AF304 1316A NOEL OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 3002N07363W 1655 MBL WND 08513 AEV 00000 DLM WND 03
004 980715 WL150 08017 081 =
XXBB 52178 99300 70736 11603 00981 23802 11850 19409 22718 13413
33707 14010 44697 11407
21212 00981 07014 11960 09018 22946 10514 33933 11003 44922 04002
55850 35509 66697 35502
31313 09608 81651
61616 AF304 1316A NOEL OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 3002N07363W 1655 MBL WND 08513 AEV 00000 DLM WND 03
004 980715 WL150 08017 081 =


Pressure in center: 981 hPa.

[HenkL]

URNT11 KNHC 021737
97779 17344 60301 75900 73200 26013 66852 /5747
RMK AF304 1316A NOEL OB 17
LAST REPORT


00
NOUS42 KNHC 021445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 02 NOVEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-158

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE NOEL....NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: NOAA 43 IS PLANNING AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
INTO NOEL DEPARTING KMCF AT 03/0000Z. THEIR OPERATION
WILL BE AT 12,000 FT IN THE STORM ENVIROMENT IN CONCERT
WITH AN AEROSONDE (UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE) DEPARTING
KWAL AT 02/1600Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THE WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 021803
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 02/16:46:00Z
B. 30 deg 02 min N
073 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2929 m
D. 64 kt
E. 255 deg 32 nm
F. 356 deg 064 kt
G. 289 deg 071 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 13 C/ 3046 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1316A NOEL OB 15
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SE QUAD 12:16:40 Z

[DESTRUCTION5]

in jupiter its like knock you on your ass windy out. any explanations?

Its called Hello Fall...Good bye Humidity..

[BigA]

It's turning extratropical, but it is not weakening.

[Derek Ortt]

the core remains warm

I would not discontinue advisories until after tonight's manned and unmanned mission. I'd like to see definitive evidence of the cold core or it being attacked to a front before writing it off

[emeraldislencguy]

it has really gotten windy here in the past few hours--reminds me of a winter northeaster.

[JtSmarts]

It was even very windy here in upstate S.C. I enjoyed it.

[Thunder44]

the core remains warm

I would not discontinue advisories until after tonight's manned and unmanned mission. I'd like to see definitive evidence of the cold core or it being attacked to a front before writing it off

They said if convection continue to diminish this afternoon, it would probably be declared extratropical. Does that mean HPC will take over?

[cycloneye]

[bWOCN31 CWHX 021800
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM AST
FRIDAY 02 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM AST

... NOEL TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR
ATLANTIC CANADA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 325 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 600 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 978 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 02 3.00 PM 30.3N 73.0W 978 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 AM 35.1N 70.9W 972 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 3.00 PM 39.8N 68.4W 968 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 AM 45.2N 64.8W 966 80 148 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 3.00 PM 50.2N 61.0W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 AM 55.1N 57.2W 970 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 3.00 PM 59.8N 53.5W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 06 3.00 AM 62.6N 52.7W 984 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE NOEL IS WELL ON THE WAY TO TRANSITIONING INTO A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL STORM. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY
AND THROUGH LABRADOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CALLING IT A
POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AS IT PASSES.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAIN HIGH WINDS AND POUNDING SURF ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH
NOEL AS IT PASSES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA ON THE WEEKEND.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA ...
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H AT THE COAST AND AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H INLAND. WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H FOR PEI ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BREAK TREE BRANCHES LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNLINED POWER LINES. ACCORDINGLY LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WRECKHOUSE WINDS OF
140 KM/H WILL LIKELY BE FORECAST BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
WEATHER OFFICE.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN ... 50-70 MM ... IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.

HEAVY POUNDING SURF SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ... WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 M EXPECTED. THIS WOULD MAKE SOME
BEACH EROSION LIKELY SOME AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE MOST PART AS WE
ARE MOVING INTO A FAVOURABLE PART OF THE TIDAL CYCLE. HOWEVER WE
RAISE A CONCERN FOR REGIONS ADJOINING THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT
IN THAT THE SURGE CONTRIBUTION TO THE TIMING OF A HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING COULD EXCEED THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE BY 30 CM.

RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER
OFFICE AND BULLETINS BY THOSE OFFICES SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR
DETAILS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHWESTERN
MARITIME WATERS WITH STORM AND GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL REMAINING
AREAS. DETAILS ARE CONTAINED IN BULLETINS ISUED BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE.

THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS GALE WARNINGS FOR
ALL WATERS AND THEY CONSIDER UPGRADING MANY AREAS TO STORM WARNINGS
TONIGHT.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
WE CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE NHC LEAD ON THE INITIAL POSITION...
USING AN INTERPOLATION FROM THEIR 15Z BULLETIN. TRANSITION IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE STORM HAS LOST ITS PURE TROPICAL
SIGNATURE WITH THE DEEP CORE CONVECTION GONE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
12Z EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A TIGHT ENVELOPE OF MOST MODEL TRACKS
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. THE 15Z NHC GUIDANCE HAS A TRACK SLIGHTLY
EAST OF OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WHILE THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL RUN
CONTINUES WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. BECAUSE IT WILL BE A LARGE
SPRAWLING STORM THE EXACT TRACK LINE AND CENTRAL POSITION IS NOT
AS IMPORTANT AS IF IT WERE PURELY TROPICAL... ACCORDINGLY WE
BASICALLY MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK LINE BUT SLOW IT DOWN A TOUCH
IN LINE WITH THE GEM AND THE NHC ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL LEADING MOST
MODELS IN TRANSLATION SPEED.

GEM REGIONAL HAS A POWERFUL ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEHIND PT-NOEL WHICH ARE MOSTLY MOTION-BASED SINCE
THE GEM DOES NOT APPRECIABLY DEEPEN OR INTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION. PROG TEPHI/HODO PACKAGE SHOW 80-KT LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
UNSTABLE PBL... WHICH WE BELIEVE AND HAVE REFLECTED IN THE MAX WIND
ON THE TRACK. THIS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE REFLECTED IN THE DETAILED
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE ASPC OR NLWO... ALTHOUGH HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS IN FACT WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEHIND IT.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
OUR BIGGEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE STORM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
NO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

END BOWYER
][/b]

[HURAKAN]

The extratropical transition continues!

[hial2]

Noel's circulation should drag cooler fall like weather into Florida..unfortunately no rain,though

[Thunder44]

596
WHXX01 KWBC 021900
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1900 UTC FRI NOV 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071102 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071102 1800 071103 0600 071103 1800 071104 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 73.3W 31.7N 73.0W 33.3N 70.3W 35.3N 65.4W
BAMD 30.3N 73.3W 34.3N 71.4W 39.2N 69.1W 45.3N 65.2W
BAMM 30.3N 73.3W 32.9N 71.8W 36.5N 69.0W 41.2N 63.8W
LBAR 30.3N 73.3W 33.5N 71.0W 37.3N 68.5W 41.8N 64.3W
SHIP 70KTS 67KTS 66KTS 60KTS
DSHP 70KTS 67KTS 66KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071104 1800 071105 1800 071106 1800 071107 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 37.8N 60.0W 42.3N 52.9W 44.4N 48.7W 45.6N 49.7W
BAMD 51.3N 60.5W 60.2N 50.8W 65.6N 34.6W 66.5N 13.5W
BAMM 46.7N 57.1W 56.9N 42.6W 63.1N 24.7W 64.2N 2.2W
LBAR 45.9N 56.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 51KTS 42KTS 27KTS
DSHP 42KTS 36KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.3N LONCUR = 73.3W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 27.7N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 77.4W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 210NM RD34SE = 300NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$
NNNN

18z models still say "Tropical Cyclone Noel". We see what they say at 5pm.