Monthly Tropical Weather Summary: October 2007

[Chacor]

218
ABNT30 KNHC 011134
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY DURING THE MONTH WAS BELOW AVERAGE. IN A TYPICAL
OCTOBER...TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE FORM. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT THE OCTOBERS OF 2006 AND 2007 WERE THE QUIETEST
CONSECUTIVE OCTOBER PERIODS OBSERVED SINCE 1993 AND 1994.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
FIRST SEEN TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON 4 OCTOBER.
THE AREA REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON 8 OCTOBER. THE LOW BEGAN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON 9 OCTOBER...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 860 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 905 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ON 13 OCTOBER...THEN TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND
MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON 14 OCTOBER. IT BECAME AN
EXTRATROPICAL GALE ON 16 OCTOBER ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE LOW WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE AZORES.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL...NOEL FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEPARTED
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 16 OCTOBER. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHED
THE LESSER ANTILLES...IT BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS INTERACTION LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON 23 OCTOBER...
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AFTER FORMING...THE LOW MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
THAT INITIALLY INHIBITED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
DECREASED ON THE 27 OCTOBER. THIS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 28 OCTOBER...ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. THE DEPRESSION TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND
STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE MAXIMUM
WINDS INCREASED TO 60 MPH BEFORE NOEL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI EARLY ON 29 OCTOBER. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
NOEL BECAME DISRUPTED OVER HAITI AND THE CENTER REFORMED NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER THE
CENTER REFORMED...NOEL TRACKED WESTWARD AND MADE ANOTHER LANDFALL
IN EASTERN CUBA EARLY ON 30 OCTOBER. NOEL SPENT A LITTLE MORE THAN
24 HOURS OVER EASTERN CUBA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON 31 OCTOBER. AT THE MONTH'S END NOEL WAS CENTERED BETWEEN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

PRELIMINARY MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NOEL
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI THAT HAVE RESULTED IN LOSS OF LIVES OF ABOUT 80
PEOPLE.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE
MPH $MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
TD FIFTEEN 11-12 OCTOBER 30
TS NOEL 28 OCT- 60 80*
--------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
* INCOMPLETE

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN/BLAKE

[Chacor]

036
ABPZ30 KNHC 011451
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT THU NOV 1 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ONLY ONE TROPICAL STORM...KIKO...FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THIS IS BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
OF TWO TROPICAL STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...WITH
ONE BECOMING A HURRICANE. SO FAR...2007 IS THE SECOND QUIETEST
SEASON (BASED ON RELIABLE RECORDS SINCE 1971) BEHIND 1977 IN TERMS
OF ACE...ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH IS A MEASURE OF THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES.
JULIETTE...A SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM...DISSIPATED EARLY IN
OCTOBER.

JULIETTE FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA ON 12 SEPTEMBER AND ENTERED THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ON 23 SEPTEMBER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMED ON 27 SEPTEMBER APPROXIMATELY 300 N MI SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. CONVECTION CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE FORMED AT 0000 UTC 29 SEPTEMBER
APPROXIMATELY 365 N MI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE
DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2007
EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...LATER THAT DAY AND REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 45 KT AT 1200 UTC 30 SEPTEMBER. THEREAFTER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR...COOLER SSTS...AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS RESULTED
IN WEAKENING AND JULIETTE QUICKLY DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AT
1200 UTC 2 OCTOBER.

KIKO ORIGINATED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE
CONTINUED WESTWARD AND ENTERED THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON 8 OCTOBER.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND THE SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 15 OCTOBER...WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 350 N
MI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD FOR A LITTLE OVER A DAY. IT BRIEFLY BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM ON OCTOBER 16...BUT WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. THE CYCLONE MOVED EASTWARD AND EAST- NORTHEASTWARD
WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. KIKO BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM...ONCE AGAIN...EARLY ON 17 OCTOBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 335 N
MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...KIKO
MOVED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS A MINIMAL STORM...TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. BY EARLY ON 19 OCTOBER...KIKO TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE DEVELOPED OVER MEXICO. DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KIKO MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED...AND REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KT
AROUND ON 20 OCTOBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 150 N MI WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO. KIKO GRADUALLY WEAKENED DUE TO BOTH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 22 OCTOBER. THE DEPRESSION MOVED WESTWARD AND
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 24 OCTOBER. THE REMNANT LOW
CONTINUED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW THEN TURNED NORTHWARD BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY ON 27 OCTOBER.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (KT) DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------
TS JULIETTE 29 SEP-2 OCT 45
TS KIKO 15-23 OCT 60
-------------------------------------------------------

NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
* UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/RHOME

[cycloneye]

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY DURING THE MONTH WAS BELOW AVERAGE. IN A TYPICAL
OCTOBER...TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE FORM. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT THE OCTOBERS OF 2006 AND 2007 WERE THE QUIETEST
CONSECUTIVE OCTOBER PERIODS OBSERVED SINCE 1993 AND 1994.


That is a very telling stat

[Gustywind]

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY DURING THE MONTH WAS BELOW AVERAGE. IN A TYPICAL
OCTOBER...TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE FORM. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT THE OCTOBERS OF 2006 AND 2007 WERE THE QUIETEST
CONSECUTIVE OCTOBER PERIODS OBSERVED SINCE 1993 AND 1994.


That is a very telling stat

Absolutely very significative

[CrazyC83]

It makes it easier to reach that since 2006 had nothing at all in October...

[RL3AO]

A lot less to type about this month for the NHC.

On another note, I find stuff like this really interesting.

KIKO ORIGINATED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE
CONTINUED WESTWARD AND ENTERED THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON 8 OCTOBER.

[WmE]

It makes it easier to reach that since 2006 had nothing at all in October...

Well Isaac lasted into October, but other than that nothing formed.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, so 93/94 had very slow Octobers. Then look what happened in 1995...

I have no idea if one can look at any kind of patterns and figure these things out with any reliability but the odds of next season being as inactive in the hurricane dept as this one was would seemingly be very low. Esp since there is a raging La Nina IN PLACE right now. It should still be around to some extent when we get to June 1, 2008.

Interesting season coming up in about 7 months!