Convection between Jamaica and Honduras

[GCANE]

Convection has been persitant around and especially south of Jamaica for the last couple days.

It seems like it may be decoupling from Noel and Noel is providing a lift of moist ITCZ air into this reagion.



WV & CIMSS shows a broad UL Ridge with some areas of UL Outflow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html





Judging from QuikSCAT, there appears to be a surface trough:



Seems like this is about the only place in the Atlantic Basin that has minimal shear.



CMC is showing some development down the road.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[GCANE]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA
REVEAL HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE COMBINATION OF
A TRAILING TROUGH HANGING SWD FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL...ALONG
21N80W 10N79W...IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. THE STRONGEST SMALL CLUSTERS ARE
CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SW TIP OF
HAITI. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WITHIN 60NM OF 17N85W. THE AIR DRIES OUT SOME TO
OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY FRESH NWLY WINDS. THE E
CARIB IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW AND
DRIER MID/UPPER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BY NLY WINDS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW E OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA.

[GCANE]

I believe this will be an area to watch for the next few days. Shear will be dropping quickly as Noel moves N / NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS has something near the Yucatan on Tuesday:

[Vortex]

12Z NAM rolling in and more agressive...

[Vortex]

18Z NAM at H+66

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif


H+72 Fairly agressive

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[xironman]

Looks like the "crazy uncle" has gotten better with development as well http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007110200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=084hr

[GCANE]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVATE THIS MORNING DUE TO A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE NOEL. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W S ALONG
17N79W TO 11N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM
OF LINE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W ALONG 14N80W TO THE YUCATAN
NEAR 18N88W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

[GCANE]

The environment is improving for development as Noel pulls away.

The trough is becoming better defined, with plenty of high Theta-E air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html



Shear is lessening:



Pressure Gradient of the UL Ridge has also relaxed:

[boca]

I wonder how much model support their is for something to get going down there. I only see the Nam and CMC jumping on this so far.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Looks like Noel's tail might form into something. It looks ominous down there.

[GCANE]

Vis Sat seems to show a surface trough or maybe a surface-low around Jamaica. Some convection is firing just south of the island.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+HURRICANE&type=Animation&numframes=6&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=2&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=17&lon=-78

MSLP at Montego Bay is 1009mb

850mb Vorticity has detached from Noel and is in the pocket of low shear:

[caneman]

Well, it looks like we could have another developer. Rhis from the 2:00 NHC disco.

A TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL IS KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. LIGHTNING DATA IS
DEPICTING NUMEROUS TSTMS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
78W-82W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N BETWEEN 85W-88W...WITH ONSHORE NLY
FLOW. THE TROUGHING IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF ERN CUBA...JAMAICA..AND HAITI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 71W-83W. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC LOW S OF JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
DRIFTING IT S/SW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING S OF NOEL.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
THIS REGION SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW MAPS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED...MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER HIGH.

[GCANE]

The Broad Upper-Level High is plainly seen on Water-Vapor. A flare-up is occuring at 15N 81W which is just south of a broad surface-low / trough as shown on ASCAT. Good lightening activity associated with the convection.

Montego Bay has dropped to 1007mb from 1009mb this morning.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 15&lon=-81

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_ ... as_BIG.gif

[GCANE]

IMHO there is a good chance that an Invest will form here this weekend.

1) A broad Upper-Level High is setting in over this area.

2) A surface-trough exists here.

3) High Theta-E air is forecast to remain here for at least 96 hours.

4) Shear is relatively low.

[gatorcane]

I give this 0% chance of developing.

Tails rarely develop.

[StormTracker]

I give this 0% chance of developing.

Tails rarely develop.

Cmon' gatorcane, stop trying to burst GCANE'S bubble!!! LOL!

[StormTracker]

I give this 0% chance of developing.

Tails rarely develop.

Cmon' gatorcane, stop trying to burst GCANE'S bubble!!! LOL!

GCANE, your digging deep for this one, let's see if your'e right! So far all info looks good!!!

[StormTracker]

IMHO there is a good chance that an Invest will form here this weekend.

1) A broad Upper-Level High is setting in over this area.

2) A surface-trough exists here.

3) High Theta-E air is forecast to remain here for at least 96 hours.

4) Shear is relatively low.

SST's still look decent!

[boca]

If this were to develop it wouldn't be a threat to the US because the eastern half of the country is under a northerly flow keeping whatever forms down there to stay there in move into Central America.

[StormTracker]

If this were to develop it wouldn't be a threat to the US because the eastern half of the country is under a northerly flow keeping whatever forms down there to stay there in move into Central America.

A week from now that could change, no???