TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 18.3N 129.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WTPN21 PGTW 030100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 129.9E TO 16.7N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 129.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IN-
DICATES FLARING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED OUT OF A COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW (TUTT CELL), BUT HAS TO TAKEN ON SHALLOW WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. AVAILABLE QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES WINDS OF 20
KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
EASTERN CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040100Z.//
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