INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

In the past hour, I'm estimating a west movement of 7-9 kts. Again, it's hard to make such an estimate. The convection has diminished around the circulation center in the past hour or two, making it a bit more visible.

[gatorcane]

and there is 0% chance it will move NW....?

the BAMMS typically send things west. Where are the global models?

Climatology says it should move into the NW Caribbean...

[CourierPR]

Climatology doesn't mean spit if the steering currents move the system elsewhere.

[wxman57]

and there is 0% chance it will move NW....?

the BAMMS typically send things west. Where are the global models?

Climatology says it should move into the NW Caribbean...

Forget it, it's not coming to Florida. No model is indicating anything but west into Mexico. BAM model have it in the East Pac in 36 hours, by the way. GFS has it inland in 24 hours or less. Here's the 12Z GFS 400-700mb mean steering level wind forecast for 21Z this afternoon. Note the large area of high pressure over the Gulf and ENE wind flow all across the disturbance? That means it'll move W-WSW.

[CourierPR]

The system does appear to be moving west on satellite imagery.

[wxman57]

The system does appear to be moving west on satellite imagery.

The low-level center was near 80W about 6 hours ago, now it's almost to 81W. Definitely moving westward (a bit south of west, actually). No other way it can go with the winds aloft from the ENE-E.

[cycloneye]

03/1745 UTC 14.1N 80.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

91L has floater images:

[GCANE]

Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!

THANKS

[GCANE]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING
A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N81W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND THE SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WSW TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR HAVE PUSHED S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE.
STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N74W TO 12N84W...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
BECOME CLUSTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 031848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC SAT NOV 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071103 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071103 1800 071104 0600 071104 1800 071105 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 80.8W 13.4N 82.7W 12.7N 84.9W 11.8N 87.2W
BAMD 14.1N 80.8W 13.9N 82.9W 13.6N 85.5W 13.3N 88.5W
BAMM 14.1N 80.8W 13.7N 82.6W 13.1N 84.9W 12.6N 87.5W
LBAR 14.1N 80.8W 14.0N 82.5W 14.1N 84.8W 14.3N 87.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071105 1800 071106 1800 071107 1800 071108 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 90.0W 10.8N 94.8W 10.4N 100.2W 9.4N 105.1W
BAMD 13.2N 91.7W 14.0N 98.3W 17.1N 103.9W 20.5N 105.2W
BAMM 12.3N 90.2W 12.2N 95.6W 13.3N 101.3W 14.0N 105.1W
LBAR 14.5N 89.8W 15.4N 94.5W 16.3N 97.7W 15.7N 99.2W
SHIP 42KTS 39KTS 27KTS 21KTS
DSHP 32KTS 29KTS 17KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 80.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 79.7W DIRM12 = 240DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 79.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[GCANE]

Looking at the WV Floater, I think development will not be rapid for the next 24 hrs even though it is over some high-heat content water.

It is being feed by some moist air from the east but the air is not very unstable. Lifting Indexes are -5 and -6. For this to really pickup energy from the water LI's need to be greater than this.

UL Winds over the center of the surface-low are about 15 knots, so this will keep it from vertically stacking quickly. This is inhibiting UL outflow on its east flank.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

The UL Highs are not really moving over this at the moment. So, development will be slow for the next 24 hrs.

[wxman57]

Movement is to the west at an estimated 8kts. Models suggest it has about 18 hours left over water. With 125nm to go before it reaches the coast of Nicaragua, that would be about right. Probably not enough time to develop.

[wxman57]

Here's a 36 hour model plot. The ends of the arrows indicate where the center will be at midnight tomorrow night. Unless all the models are wrong, this disturbance won't have too long over water.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface analysis with a WNW wind just south of the center.

[HURAKAN]

513
ABNT20 KNHC 032115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
CABEZAS...NICARAGUA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AND STRENGTHENING SHOULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
TONIGHT...AND THE WEATHER WILL LIKELY WORSEN IN THESE AREAS ON
SUNDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE
QUICK ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

TD17 at 11 pm?

[HURAKAN]

TD17 at 11 pm?

Convection is not helping at the moment.

[wxman57]

TD17 at 11 pm?

Convection is not helping at the moment.

True, the lack of convection and the fact that it's about 1/3 of the way inland already won't likely lead to an upgrade.

[Vortex]

some rain and gusty winds at best..not a big deal..