Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

A ship at 42N 70W reported sustained winds of 62 kts.

Possible, but I'd think that report is suspect. I see that 21Z ship report just west of the tip of Cape Cod at 42N/70.2W. It's reporting 62 kts from the NW while surrounding stations are reporting 25-35 kts. Ship reports are notoriously bad. That position is very near Cape Cod and there are quite a few observation stations on and offshore that would be more reliable. These stations are reporting between 40-50 kt winds this afternoon. It's possible the ship report was a gust, or at least not a full 1-minute average. It's hard to measure 1-minute winds on a moving ship.

Here's the 21Z surface plot. I identified that ship report with the red crosshairs. Note how much higher wind the ship is reporting vs. other stations.

[HURAKAN]

Would love to be in Nantucket right now

You're not the only one!!! People usually look at me in a weird way when I say that I had a great time during Wilma. You got to love the tropics!

[BigA]

A ship at 42N 70W reported sustained winds of 62 kts.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Would love to be in Nantucket right now

I saw some footage on the NBC Boston station from there this afternoon. It looked insane, even worse (steadier wind and rain) than some minor hurricanes (cat 1 or 2) from down south that I've seen on CNN or Fox.

[BigA]

The buoy 54 miles SE of Nantucket is reporting sustained winds of 58 mph with gusts to 80 mph. I wonder if hurricane force gusts will make it (or already have made it) onto Nantucket or Cape Cod.

[Thunder44]

There was some station in Nantucket sound that reported winds gusts up to 79 kts.

http://capewind.whgrp.com/

[CrazyC83]

The official Nantucket station had 71 mph gusts, then went down...

[btangy]

The buoy 54 miles SE of Nantucket is reporting sustained winds of 58 mph with gusts to 80 mph. I wonder if hurricane force gusts will make it (or already have made it) onto Nantucket or Cape Cod.

There are unconfirmed reports of hurricane force gusts on both Nantucket and Cape Cod.

[BigA]

79 knots...wow, I assume that that means that there have been hurricane force gusts over land. In any case, very strong.

I was looking at weather.com and Stu Ostro thinks that Ex-Noel still has some tropical characteristics http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_13990.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

And their on the so called "weaker" side for wind field. Should be interesting to see what happens east of myself in Eastern NB and Western Nova Scotia when the remnants of the eye actually makes landfall later, and drags the Eastern side of the wind field over land areas.

[BigA]

For what it's worth, the winds between Martha's vineyard and Cape Cod are still being reported as sustained at 64 and gusts to 88 so I would say that a little bit farther east they would be getting winds about that strong.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If the track keeps trending West the remains of the eye could make landfall just South of my area, or even slightly to the East. I could be near the strongest winds in the wee hours, nasty.

[cycloneye]

WOCN31 CWHX 040000
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12 MIDNIGHT ADT

..WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS NOEL APPROACHES THE MARITIMES
..PREPARATION EFFORTS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETED...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.7 N AND LONGITUDE 68.5 W... ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 400 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS...139 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
968 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 31 KNOTS...57 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 03 9.00 PM 40.7N 68.5W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 AM 43.5N 66.8W 965 75 139 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 AM 47.1N 64.8W 962 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 2.00 PM 50.7N 62.5W 965 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 8.00 PM 53.9N 60.1W 966 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 AM 56.9N 58.3W 968 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 AM 59.2N 57.2W 969 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 2.00 PM 62.0N 56.3W 972 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 8.00 PM 64.7N 55.8W 978 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED BACK TOWARD THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE..BASED ON A FARTHER-EAST STORM POSITION AT FORECAST
TIME. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE STORM CENTER JUST WEST OF NOVA SCOTIA..
INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH CENTRAL LABRADOR.

ALTHOUGH NOEL IS A POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM CENTRE SINCE THE HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE TRACK LINE ITSELF.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE NUMBER OF WARNINGS FOR THIS STORM ARE TOO NUMEROUS TO LIST BUT
ARE SUMMARIZED HERE WITH DETAILS BEING AVAILABLE IN BULLETINS ISSUED
BY THE QUÉBEC AND ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRES AND THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE...
...WIND AND/OR RAIN WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR QUÉBEC NEW BRUNSWICK
PEI NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
...HEAVY SNOWFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CHURCHILL FALLS
AND NORTHERN LABRADOR.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEWFOUNDLAND WRECKHOUSE
AREA AND IN LES SUETES IN THE CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS...100 KM/H
GUSTING TO 180/160 RESPECTIVELY. 140 KM/H WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST
OVER PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECAST IS 100 MM IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 M HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WEST OF THE STORM
AND ARE LIKELY 12 M EAST OF IT. WE ARE WARNING THAT THESE ENERGETIC
WAVES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
ATLANTICCOAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND AND WE
ADVISE PEOPLE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THESE SHORES. MEDIA
REPORTS HAVE ALERTED US TO A HIGH LEVEL OF INTEREST IN THESE WAVES
BY THE PUBLIC AND WE ADVISE AGAINST ANYONE TESTING THESE WATERS OR
EVEN GOING NEAR THE SHORE.

STORM SURGE IS UNLIKELY TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE TIDES ARE
RUNNING LOWER THAN NORMAL. WE DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO BE
MUCH ABOVE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

DAMAGE/IMPACTS...
WHERE WIND GUSTS TO AND ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE (120 KM/H) ARE FORECAST
..EXPECT TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS. SOME TREES WILL LIKELY
BE UPROOTED. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND CLADDING
MATERIAL ON SOME HOMES. SOME SIGNAGE COULD ALSO SUFFER DAMAGE WITH
WINDS GUSTING THIS HIGH. ALSO..WITH 11-METRE WAVES EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... AND UPWARDS OF 8-METRES IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY. COASTAL EROSION OF SOME
BEACHES IS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND DOCKS.
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS..ESPECIALLY
WHERE LEAF LITTER CLOGS STORM DRAINS.

EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA.
WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY IN THESE THUNDERSHOWERS.

A SUMMARY OF STORM OBSERVATIONS SO FAR WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE 12
MIDNIGHT INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARITIME WATERS AND MOST GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS. STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR SOUTHERN LABRADOR AS WELL AS FOR SOME ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
BUOY REPORTS ARE CONFIRMING WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE STORM ALONG WITH 11 M SIG WAVE HEIGHTS. THE STORM CENTER HAS
PASSED EAST OF BUOY 44008 TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

GOES IMAGERY PROVIDE A GOOD CENTER FIX ON THE POSITION AND CLEARLY
SHOWS THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE STORM WITH CONVECTION STILL ACTIVE
NEAR STORM CORE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL FORECASTS.
THE TRACK HAS BEEN BUMPED BACK TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD..SIMILAR TO THE TRACK ISSUED LAST NIGHT.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
DETAILS ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
TRADITIONAL WIND RADII TABLE IS LEFT OUT GIVEN THAT THE WIND
DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE STORM IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A PURELY
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL CONTINUES SUGGESTING THAT WAM AND WW3
MAY BE UNDERDOING THE WAVES WITH THIS STORM... WITH BOTH OF THOSE
MODELS SHOWING 11-12M. WITH 10M APPEARING AT B44008 THE MAX WAVES
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THIS SO 13-15M IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

GIVEN THE TROPICAL HISTORY OF THIS STORM..THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER

[wxman57]

For what it's worth, the winds between Martha's vineyard and Cape Cod are still being reported as sustained at 64 and gusts to 88 so I would say that a little bit farther east they would be getting winds about that strong.

What reporting station are you looking at? What's the station identifier? Martha's Vineyard (kmva) has reported a max sustained wind of 36 kts with a max gust to 56 kts. Hyannis (southern Cape Cod across the bay from Martha's Vineyard) has reported a max wind of 37 kts with a gust to 52 kts. I don't see any reports between the two stations. Several buoys near the Cape have reported max winds near 50 kts. I haven't seen anything higher on the reports.

[MiamiensisWx]

Would love to be in Nantucket right now

I saw some footage on the NBC Boston station from there this afternoon. It looked insane, even worse (steadier wind and rain) than some minor hurricanes (cat 1 or 2) from down south that I've seen on CNN or Fox.

Trust me. I've experienced actual 1-min Category 1 winds during Wilma in SE FL, and people who experienced Jeanne, Frances, and Katrina (Category 1/2 in FL) can attest that these storms were hardly "minor" by any stretch of the imagination. Other areas were certainly hit harder in 2004-2005, but actual hurricane-force winds are not a walk in the park. They're quite impressive when you actually face those conditions, especially in an urban area. Anyone who experienced sustained 'cane-force winds in nor'easters can find adequate examples of heavy vegetative damages during winds near ~64-70 kts (equivalent to 74-80 mph).

A weakening Category 1 hurricane with a narrow RMW is much different than a strengthening TC (any intensity) or ET low. Those reporters usually do not remain outside even in strong TS winds. It's not surprising that they exaggerate the current conditions when winds are below hurricane force. Anyone can classify this phenomenon as "hype" and an inaccurate depiction of +64 kt winds and their true effects.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Sorry I guess I was just relating it to Andrew which I went through in South Florida while visiting family in 1992. I did not mean to down play cat 1 or 2 storms, just couldn't think of a better term at the time.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Check out all the lightning strikes starting to pop up these last few hours across Nova Scotia, on the East side of Noel:

[RL3AO]

Noel's moisture has caused a winter storm warning to be issued in Northern Maine.

[CrazyC83]

Temperature AND dewpoint in Yarmouth, NS is 65F (18C). That is quite high for a cold-core system in November...

[CrazyC83]

WOCN31 CWHX 040300
POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.00 MIDNIGHT ADT SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

AT MIDNIGHT ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 42.0 N AND LONGITUDE 67.6 W... ABOUT 138 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 255 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 33 KNOTS... 61
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 967 MB.

RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 66 MM AT
YARMOUTH AS OF 9 PM. ABOUT 42 MM HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE HALIFAX
AREA. NEAR 35 MM HAS FALLEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
WITH STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN MONCTON. PEAK WINDS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA HAVE BEEN NEAR 100 KM/H. THE HIGHEST WIND SO
FAR (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ENHANCED WINDS IN CAPE BRETON AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND) HAS BEEN 100 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT AND
98 KM/H IN THE WESTERN APPROACH TO HALIFAX HARBOUR. PEAK WINDS OF
95 KM/H HAVE BEEN REGISTERED AT THE HALIFAX AIRPORT. THESE WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN SOME POWER OUTAGES..FOR INSTANCE..IN THE LUNENBURG AREA.

OFFSHORE..PEAK SIG WAVES IF 12.6 M HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT GEORGE'S
BANK BUOY WITH PEAK WINDS OF 58 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. PEAK WINDS
OF 69 KNOTS WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 44008 FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AS THE STORM PASSED TO THE EAST. SIG WAVES HAVE GROWN TO 5.5 M AT
THE HALIFAX HARBOUR BUOY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GROW OVERNIGHT TO NEAR
11 M BY DAYBREAK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS TRACKING AS FORECAST
AT 9PM AND IS ON A COURSE FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE CLOSEST
APPROACH TO NOVA SCOTIA IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 4 OR 5 AM. THIS
WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS
THE PROVINCE.

QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THERE ARE TWO ZONES OF HIGH WIND..ONE
WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM GIVING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES WHICH WERE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE SECOND PRIMARY WIND
JET APPEARS CLOSER TO THE STORM IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLIES.
BETWEEN THE WIND JETS THERE IS A SLIGHT DROP-OFF IN WIND AND IN THE
RAINFALL AS WELL. A THIRD AREA OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE EXISTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END FOGARTY