Spin East of Lesser Antilles

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tolakram
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Spin East of Lesser Antilles

#1 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:31 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Looks like a low level circulation, though conditions are extremely unfavorable for development out there.

Image

Image

Image

It's got a small slot before moving under extreme shear. I'm not anticipating anything from it, it just caught my eye. :)

I believe it's this (from TWD):

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
AREA OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

from the 2pm TWD:


BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED
V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE AREA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 28W-37W.
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#2 Postby Gustywind » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:26 pm

Yeah i saw it too this morning....but as others areas suffering from olympics shear games recenty...we will see if we can have a gold medal for sustained convection :wink: but tkanks for your trained eyes i appreciate :D !
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:25 pm

Image

Image

Image

Mr shear will do its job.
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#4 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 03, 2007 6:50 pm

continues to look healthier this evening...

invest soon?
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:19 pm

Image
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#6 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:39 pm

I'm actually surprised to see a storm like that east of the Antilles this time of year.

Chances are low, but I actually wouldn't count it out totally.
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#7 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:46 pm

If the LLC persists until it gets near the Caribbean then at least it will be a focus for generation, IMO.
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#8 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:08 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT (humm...i prefer... sunday maybe a mistake by the NHC) NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 36W-39W. :wink:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
10 or 20 kts of shear for the moment but after that... Olympics Shear Games will occur quickly and i don't expect a gold medal :eek: :cheesy: ...awesome shear ahead :spam:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Increasing shear ahead of the 40-42w :double: :eek: :oops: ...we will see but troubles down the road given what my untrained eyes are seeing :cheesy:
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#9 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 10:24 am

AAAANNDDD.....


Gone.
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#10 Postby tolakram » Sun Nov 04, 2007 10:28 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

The low level spin is still there but, as expected, the convection has been obliterated.
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#11 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 10:32 am

Yep.

Conditions are so hostile across the entire tropical Atlantic, I'd say our only chance for Olga, at least for the next 5-7 days, would be a subtropical, born-from-seemingly-nowhere storm. Kinda like the last Olga, actually.
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Re:

#12 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 04, 2007 1:58 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Yep.

Conditions are so hostile across the entire tropical Atlantic, I'd say our only chance for Olga, at least for the next 5-7 days, would be a subtropical, born-from-seemingly-nowhere storm. Kinda like the last Olga, actually.


Subtropical or not iffff....it's wait and see 8-) :roll: :)
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#13 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:18 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB
LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12.5N. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. WHILE THE
OVERALL WAVE SIGNATURE IS CLEAR...CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AT BEST WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS SHEARED BY MID TO UPPER
WESTERLIES. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRAGMENTATION OR SOME
ENERGY ABSORPTION OF THIS WAVE AS A LARGE DEEP LAYER AREA OF LOW
PRES...CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE AZORES...DIGS SW. :wink:
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#14 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Nov 04, 2007 8:23 pm

It's got no chance in my book with the shear, but the low forming is somewhat unexpected. This could do something, although I'd say it's a least a day too early to tell; this could be obliterated at any moment.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 05, 2007 7:12 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 22N61W TO 15N59W TO 7N57W...MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N59W. LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISPLACED WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ACTIVITY IS
STRONGEST WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N51W.
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE EAST CARIBBEAN...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 18N59W...MOVING SLOWLY NW. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM ABOUT 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. :wink: :cheesy:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg :wink:
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#16 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Nov 05, 2007 8:44 am

It seems that this thing is being ripped apart by shear, though, whatever the situation is with the low.
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Re: Spin Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 05, 2007 7:21 pm

The spin is still there,fighting the strong shear.



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 42W-47W. A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
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