INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

[StormTracker]

Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!

THANKS

GCANE... I had your back all the way from the beginning...cudos to you maan!!! Great call on a last minute storm!!!

[gatorcane]

we need to watch the convection now building east of this invest towards the NW Caribbean and Jamaica. As the invest moves ashore and fizzles, alot of disturbed weather should remain in its wake....

[Thunder44]

638
WHXX01 KWBC 040023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC SUN NOV 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071104 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071104 0000 071104 1200 071105 0000 071105 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 81.9W 13.5N 84.1W 12.7N 86.3W 11.9N 89.1W
BAMD 14.2N 81.9W 14.2N 84.2W 14.1N 86.9W 14.1N 89.7W
BAMM 14.2N 81.9W 13.9N 84.0W 13.5N 86.5W 13.1N 89.2W
LBAR 14.2N 81.9W 14.2N 83.9W 14.3N 86.4W 14.3N 89.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071106 0000 071107 0000 071108 0000 071109 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 92.1W 11.9N 97.7W 12.2N 103.3W 11.4N 108.2W
BAMD 14.3N 92.5W 15.5N 98.5W 17.9N 103.1W 20.4N 104.4W
BAMM 13.0N 92.1W 13.4N 98.2W 15.2N 103.9W 16.4N 106.7W
LBAR 14.7N 91.8W 15.7N 96.5W 16.3N 99.4W 15.8N 101.0W
SHIP 41KTS 38KTS 29KTS 21KTS
DSHP 32KTS 28KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 80.2W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 79.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

0z models show no upgrade yet.

[HURAKAN]

063
ABNT20 KNHC 040209
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA WITH LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...SQUALLY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Patrick99]

Interesting. Noel goes east and north. 91L goes west and south. No rain for Sanibel.


Let's see if that chart nudges a little north.

yeah, the tropics just do not want to give us *anything* this year.

[Thunder44]

968
ABNT20 KNHC 041009
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AND IS NOW JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. EVEN THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
COAST SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.
HOWEVER...SQUALLY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Gustywind]

Interesting. Noel goes east and north. 91L goes west and south. No rain for Sanibel.


Let's see if that chart nudges a little north.

yeah, the tropics just do not want to give us *anything* this year.

Yeah Patrick99 so good news for your country very glad to see that , this remind me 2005 in my island ...nothing ...we were seeing all the canes passing in all directions that was great...no troubles ,whereas compared to us i tkink that we get more rain during the season of 2005 than you in US . So the lotery has changed this year... but i don't like the two cat 5 in the carib too

[Gustywind]

I tkink that we get more rain during the season of 2005 than you in US ...2007 excuse me

[GCANE]

Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!

THANKS

GCANE... I had your back all the way from the beginning...cudos to you maan!!! Great call on a last minute storm!!!

Thanks StormTracker!!!

[caribepr]

Hmm Vortex...what part of this sounds like "not a big deal"? (from the early a.m. TWO)

THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.

[wxman57]

Bones says that even though the disturbance will cause heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras, it has missed its opportunity to become a TC in the Caribbean.

[Cyclone1]

Inland.

[hial2]

Bones says that even though the disturbance will cause heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras, it has missed its opportunity to become a TC in the Caribbean.

Mr X-57, are my eyes deceiving me,or is "the thing" heading slightly more NW now? I was looking at the WV loops and that's the impression I got..but then again I have glaucoma,so...

[Sanibel]

Another one that looks like it would have become a hurricane if it didn't go inland.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041605
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

I guess no Recon for today!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wish like crazy that this would turn northwest
and hit florida. I want it so bad. Nice rain and wind.

[cycloneye]

I guess no Recon for today!!!

NOUS42 KNHC 041530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SUN 04 NOVEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON AREA IN CARIBBEAN WAS CANX
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.



Nope.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I guess no Recon for today!!!

NOUS42 KNHC 041530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SUN 04 NOVEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON AREA IN CARIBBEAN WAS CANX
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.



Nope.

maybe a cold front turns it towards the SE. I can only
hope.

[Squarethecircle]

Interestingly enough, it doesn't seem to be ripped apart yet, although that should happen soon. Convective signature looks decent enough for an inland storm. Might make a depression for a couple advisories in the EPac, but even that seems a little unlikely.