Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
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Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Here are my opinions on each storm and the cases for and against retirement for each storm, along with my estimated probability of retirement (from <2% to >99%).
Subtropical Storm Andrea
Case for: No good cases
Case against: Minimal damage, never actually became tropical, no landfall
Likelihood: 2%
Tropical Storm Barry
Case for: No good cases
Case against: Minimal damage, 3 deaths
Likelihood: 2%
Tropical Storm Chantal
Case for: Near-record flooding in parts of Newfoundland
Case against: No deaths, no land impacts while tropical
Likelihood: 3%
Hurricane Dean
Case for: 42 deaths, $4B damage, widespread destruction, Category 5 landfall
Case against: No real "catastrophic" damage anywhere
Likelihood: 90%
Tropical Storm Erin
Case for: Severe flooding, 18 deaths
Case against: Never got above 35 kt, made landfall as TD
Likelihood: 10%
Hurricane Felix
Case for: 100-140 deaths, severe damage in Central America, Category 5 landfall
Case against: No significant impact elsewhere
Likelihood: 85%
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Case for: No good cases
Case against: Minimal damage, no deaths
Likelihood: 2%
Tropical Storm Ingrid
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2% (to allow the miniscule potential for a WMO technical decision)
Hurricane Humberto
Case for: >$500M damage, sudden intensification
Case against: 1 death, no real major damage
Likelihood: 20%
Tropical Storm Jerry
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2%
Hurricane? Karen
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2%
Hurricane Lorenzo
Case for: Significant flooding
Case against: Low death toll, narrow scope of damage
Likelihood: 5%
Tropical Storm Melissa
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2%
Hurricane Noel
Case for: 148+ deaths, catastrophic flooding and mudslides across a large region
Case against: Did most damage as a tropical storm or extratropical, hardest-hit countries have poor retirement records (i.e. Gordon-94, Isabel-85)
Likelihood: 50%
Subtropical Storm Andrea
Case for: No good cases
Case against: Minimal damage, never actually became tropical, no landfall
Likelihood: 2%
Tropical Storm Barry
Case for: No good cases
Case against: Minimal damage, 3 deaths
Likelihood: 2%
Tropical Storm Chantal
Case for: Near-record flooding in parts of Newfoundland
Case against: No deaths, no land impacts while tropical
Likelihood: 3%
Hurricane Dean
Case for: 42 deaths, $4B damage, widespread destruction, Category 5 landfall
Case against: No real "catastrophic" damage anywhere
Likelihood: 90%
Tropical Storm Erin
Case for: Severe flooding, 18 deaths
Case against: Never got above 35 kt, made landfall as TD
Likelihood: 10%
Hurricane Felix
Case for: 100-140 deaths, severe damage in Central America, Category 5 landfall
Case against: No significant impact elsewhere
Likelihood: 85%
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Case for: No good cases
Case against: Minimal damage, no deaths
Likelihood: 2%
Tropical Storm Ingrid
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2% (to allow the miniscule potential for a WMO technical decision)
Hurricane Humberto
Case for: >$500M damage, sudden intensification
Case against: 1 death, no real major damage
Likelihood: 20%
Tropical Storm Jerry
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2%
Hurricane? Karen
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2%
Hurricane Lorenzo
Case for: Significant flooding
Case against: Low death toll, narrow scope of damage
Likelihood: 5%
Tropical Storm Melissa
Case for: None
Case against: Never affected land at all
Likelihood: <2%
Hurricane Noel
Case for: 148+ deaths, catastrophic flooding and mudslides across a large region
Case against: Did most damage as a tropical storm or extratropical, hardest-hit countries have poor retirement records (i.e. Gordon-94, Isabel-85)
Likelihood: 50%
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Personally, I disagree with your synopsis on Dean and Humberto. Dean was quite comparable to Janet '55 when it struck Mexico in terms of intensity and track. Although Mexico didn't request retirement for Emily in 2005, you should note that Dean was much stronger (~145 kts/906 mb) at landfall near the significant (local standards) city of Chetumal. More than 135,000 people inhabit the city. Dean's storm surge and maximum 1-min largely affected the sparsely populated marshes, especially within the northern quadrant. Despite the lower population, I disagree with the statement that says, "No 'real' catastrophic damage" occurred during Dean. Mahahual was devastated by wind and water, and it did not receive the maximum 1-min winds (it was situated in the W and E eyewall). Additionally, there is a major cruise port near Mahahual, and it was heavily affected by Dean. Tourism is very important for Mexico's economy. Chetumal is an important trade location. Although the city narrowly missed Dean's inner core, it probably experienced Category 2 winds (~85 kts/100 mph) in small streaks. Finally, other areas (Jamaica and Antilles) may request Dean's retirement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chetumal
Personally, I would not be surprised if Humberto is retired. It affected an area that was hit by Rita '05. Local damages were surprisingly significant after Humberto. I saw some gas stations with torn awnings, while more severe damage occurred in small streaks. Weaker structures were destroyed on High Island, TX. Roof damage was quite evident in local locations per images. If TS Allison '01 and Frances '04 were retired, I think Humberto may receive retirement requests from the United States in the post-2005 environment. There have been other Category 1 landfalls with fewer impacts (i.e. virtually NONE in some cases) than Humberto. Lately, the United States has been requesting retirement for more storms that have made fewer impacts. It looks like the standards for "retirement" have been broadened.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/humbertojeffersonpics.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/humberto.php
"Humberto made history due to its rapid strengthening from a tropical depression the morning of September 12, 2007, to a hurricane early on September 13, 2007, as no other hurricane has ever strengthened so quickly close to landfall. After making landfall between High Island, TX, and Sea Rim State Park, TX, the hurricane then tracked northeastward across Jefferson and Orange counties, impacting the Golden Triangle metropolitan area of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange. This area had been severely damaged by Hurricane Rita just two years earlier. Although a small hurricane with a very tight wind field, Humberto caused considerable wind and flood damage across Jefferson and Orange counties, with numerous trees and power lines blown down along with some damage to structures. The storm knocked out power to 120,000 customers in the area. Damage estimates across Southeast Texas from Humberto were around $60,000,000.
Humberto continued northeastward across southern Newton county, crossing the state line into western Calcasieu and Beauregard parishes, and causing additional wind and flood damage along its path. The storm weakened as it moved further northeastward, moving across Vernon, Rapides, and far northwestern Allen parishes during the afternoon hours on September 13th, before exiting the area."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chetumal
Personally, I would not be surprised if Humberto is retired. It affected an area that was hit by Rita '05. Local damages were surprisingly significant after Humberto. I saw some gas stations with torn awnings, while more severe damage occurred in small streaks. Weaker structures were destroyed on High Island, TX. Roof damage was quite evident in local locations per images. If TS Allison '01 and Frances '04 were retired, I think Humberto may receive retirement requests from the United States in the post-2005 environment. There have been other Category 1 landfalls with fewer impacts (i.e. virtually NONE in some cases) than Humberto. Lately, the United States has been requesting retirement for more storms that have made fewer impacts. It looks like the standards for "retirement" have been broadened.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/humbertojeffersonpics.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/humberto.php
"Humberto made history due to its rapid strengthening from a tropical depression the morning of September 12, 2007, to a hurricane early on September 13, 2007, as no other hurricane has ever strengthened so quickly close to landfall. After making landfall between High Island, TX, and Sea Rim State Park, TX, the hurricane then tracked northeastward across Jefferson and Orange counties, impacting the Golden Triangle metropolitan area of Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange. This area had been severely damaged by Hurricane Rita just two years earlier. Although a small hurricane with a very tight wind field, Humberto caused considerable wind and flood damage across Jefferson and Orange counties, with numerous trees and power lines blown down along with some damage to structures. The storm knocked out power to 120,000 customers in the area. Damage estimates across Southeast Texas from Humberto were around $60,000,000.
Humberto continued northeastward across southern Newton county, crossing the state line into western Calcasieu and Beauregard parishes, and causing additional wind and flood damage along its path. The storm weakened as it moved further northeastward, moving across Vernon, Rapides, and far northwestern Allen parishes during the afternoon hours on September 13th, before exiting the area."
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Noel 90%
Felix 85-90%
Dean 65-70%
That is what I think. Noel be far was the most deadiest, followed by Felix.
Felix 85-90%
Dean 65-70%
That is what I think. Noel be far was the most deadiest, followed by Felix.
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Did one on the Wikia, let's get it up here...
Andrea- 0% - No, no, NO. Oh, and by the way, NO.
Barry- 1% - Well, you know, KLAUS got in. But still, no.
Chantal- 2% - Five mil is not worth a retirement.
Dean- 85% - Really significant damage in Jamaica, fair amount of deaths, and somewhat significant damage elsewhere. The intensity might also bias WMO more towards the "retire" side.
Erin- 5% - Only slightly worse than Barry, but there was the Missouri incident, and Texas was in flood stage, so I'm bumping it up a little bit. Oh, and Oklahoma.
Felix- 80-95% - Depends on the damage report; small, then the minimum, high, then the maximum. I say this because of the intensity, and the number of deaths (Stan was retired even though 80 of the deaths were recognized, although the damage was fairly high).
Gabrielle- 1% - It did less damage than help, no deaths, and damage reports are so low that they have not come out yet. Plus, the whole ordeal just sucked, interesting-wise.
Humberto- 15% - Did a fair amount of damage, but not really enough to be retired. However, the fast intensification might give a bias toward retirement.
Ingrid- negative 54% - No chance.
Jerry- negative 22% - Have to think about this... NO CHANCE!
Karen- negative 10% - Well, you know ; ).
Lorenzo- 12% - Unless the damage report is substantial, there isn't too much about this storm to get it retired. However, my reasoning is somewhat similar to Humberto.
Melissa- 0% - I mean, come ON people.
Noel- 80% - Same reasoning as Felix, except without intensity bias. May be a low estimate if really bad damage occurs in the Maritimes.
Andrea- 0% - No, no, NO. Oh, and by the way, NO.
Barry- 1% - Well, you know, KLAUS got in. But still, no.
Chantal- 2% - Five mil is not worth a retirement.
Dean- 85% - Really significant damage in Jamaica, fair amount of deaths, and somewhat significant damage elsewhere. The intensity might also bias WMO more towards the "retire" side.
Erin- 5% - Only slightly worse than Barry, but there was the Missouri incident, and Texas was in flood stage, so I'm bumping it up a little bit. Oh, and Oklahoma.
Felix- 80-95% - Depends on the damage report; small, then the minimum, high, then the maximum. I say this because of the intensity, and the number of deaths (Stan was retired even though 80 of the deaths were recognized, although the damage was fairly high).
Gabrielle- 1% - It did less damage than help, no deaths, and damage reports are so low that they have not come out yet. Plus, the whole ordeal just sucked, interesting-wise.
Humberto- 15% - Did a fair amount of damage, but not really enough to be retired. However, the fast intensification might give a bias toward retirement.
Ingrid- negative 54% - No chance.
Jerry- negative 22% - Have to think about this... NO CHANCE!
Karen- negative 10% - Well, you know ; ).
Lorenzo- 12% - Unless the damage report is substantial, there isn't too much about this storm to get it retired. However, my reasoning is somewhat similar to Humberto.
Melissa- 0% - I mean, come ON people.
Noel- 80% - Same reasoning as Felix, except without intensity bias. May be a low estimate if really bad damage occurs in the Maritimes.
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
I would be shocked if Noel's death toll in Haiti and the Dominican Republic doesn't rise significantly over the next several days. Personally, I have not seen recent information from the rural and mountainous areas in those countries, despite the large number of flooded villages. They have mentioned that it will take time to uncover "bodies" as flooding subsides. This information provides convincing evidence and the impetus that the Hispaniolan death toll probably exceeds +500 people. The governments in Nicaragua and Honduras may have covered the true Felix toll, too. I have not seen any information from the higher terrain after Felix. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, and it probably isn't true, but I would not be surprised. I can see similarities between Hispaniola and these twin Central American countries. I suspect the true Central American toll exceeded +300 people.
Hopefully, I am completely wrong.
Hopefully, I am completely wrong.
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- DanKellFla
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Re:
DanKellFla wrote:Has there ever been a Cat. 5 at landfall that wasn't retired? I would be very surprised if Dean/Felix wasn't retired.
I'm quite sure Edith was the last, though I forget before that. There haven't been too many category five landfalls.
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Erin may have peaked at 45-50KT over Oklahoma
also, Isabel did its damage to PR as a wave; thus, it does not qualify for consideration
also, Isabel did its damage to PR as a wave; thus, it does not qualify for consideration
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Sun Nov 04, 2007 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Derek Ortt wrote:Erin may have peaked at 45-50KT over Oklahoma
That was surprisingly random... Are you suggesting the estimates for it should be nudged up?
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:surface obs from Oklahoma clarly indicated a 45-50KT storm. It is in a favorable location with regards to the synoptic flow that allowed it to intensify over land (a well defined eye even formed on radar, similar to what happened with Allison in 2001 over Mississippi)
I acknowledge that this is true, I'm almost certain of winds in excess of 40 knots, but what is your point, sir?
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my thoughts"
Andrea: Forget about it
Barry: See Andrea
Chantal: Please
Dean: if France had Klaus retired, Dean's a goner
Erin: Waiting for the Oklahoma damage totals. Still have not come in
Felix: Na na na na, Na na na na, Hey hey hey, Good bye!
Gabrielle: No way
Humberto: If storm's like it are retired, we'd have to resort to using the Chinese alphabet for names
Ingrid: hahaha
Jerry: See Iris
Karen: See the previous 2
Lorenzo: See Humberto
Melissa: Unless storms are retired for failure to perform, we'll be seeing this in 6 years
Noel: Want to see the final death toll first
Andrea: Forget about it
Barry: See Andrea
Chantal: Please
Dean: if France had Klaus retired, Dean's a goner
Erin: Waiting for the Oklahoma damage totals. Still have not come in
Felix: Na na na na, Na na na na, Hey hey hey, Good bye!
Gabrielle: No way
Humberto: If storm's like it are retired, we'd have to resort to using the Chinese alphabet for names
Ingrid: hahaha
Jerry: See Iris
Karen: See the previous 2
Lorenzo: See Humberto
Melissa: Unless storms are retired for failure to perform, we'll be seeing this in 6 years
Noel: Want to see the final death toll first
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:my thoughts"
Andrea: Forget about it
Barry: See Andrea
Chantal: Please
Dean: if France had Klaus retired, Dean's a goner
Erin: Waiting for the Oklahoma damage totals. Still have not come in
Felix: Na na na na, Na na na na, Hey hey hey, Good bye!
Gabrielle: No way
Humberto: If storm's like it are retired, we'd have to resort to using the Chinese alphabet for names
Iris: hahaha
Jerry: See Iris
Karen: See the previous 2
Lorenzo: See Humberto
Melissa: Unless storms are retired for failure to perform, we'll be seeing this in 6 years
Noel: Want to see the final death toll first
Iris IS retired.

But Ingrid, yeah, my reaction is the same as yours.
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:my thoughts"
Humberto: If storm's like it are retired, we'd have to resort to using the Chinese alphabet
Brisbane and Perth are replacing 21 names this year link (including Ingrid

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- AussieMark
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Re: Re:
HurricaneRobert wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:my thoughts"
Humberto: If storm's like it are retired, we'd have to resort to using the Chinese alphabet
Brisbane and Perth are replacing 21 names this year link (including Ingrid) (Or if they're don't get rid of those, the list of retirements down below is very extensive.) They obviously aren't worried about running out of names even though they use many of the same ones that we do. We also have Spanish and French names, while celebrities are always coming up with new ones. We're never going to run out.
Ingrid was a very legitimate case. She made landfall as a category 5 several times across Northern Australia back in 2005. Then in 2006 we had Larry and Monica as notable ones.
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Re: Retirement potential for 2007 storms - analysis
Category five Aussie scale, you mean. I believe the winds, sustained 1-min, were around 130, 135 knots, and it really did quite a bit of damage. I'd say that Ingrid but not necessarily Monica should be retired, and Larry should be retired as well. What were the damages again...
Monica- unknown, no deaths
Larry- 800 million USD, 1 billion Australian
Ingrid- unknown, but likely quite high
Monica- unknown, no deaths
Larry- 800 million USD, 1 billion Australian
Ingrid- unknown, but likely quite high
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