Trough Over Western Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Invest 91 has moved inland and will likely be completely gone soon. But as I have been saying, we need to watch the lingering trough over the Western Caribbean. Even though 91L is gone the trough remains.

UL Winds continue to look favorable for development.

[GCANE]

The convection at 18N 80W does have some organization to it. NHC has tagged it as a stationary front.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html





The strong UL High over mid Mexico may keep a lid on this developing quickly though.



As an opposing note, the water has high heat-content but a surface-low needs to really spin-up before it can draw energy out of the water. Right now, it is a mesoscale development scenario.

Very much worth keeping an eye on this; especially, of the UL High starts to relax.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, as I posted in the 91L thread, I had a feeling climatology would try to nudge this more north. It still hasn't formed, but there is no longer any swirl over Nicaragua and there is over the west Caribbean.

[GCANE]

Convection is still firing along the stalled front this morning with a defined UL Outflow and weak LL Convergence.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html





Shear is low south of the stalled front.



The UL Ridge over this may be relaxing a bit.



Winds are relatively high but steady at the Yucatan Buoy with MSLP steady.



Development is not imminent, but worth keeping an eye on this.

[boca]

If and if this where to develop it wouldn't affect Florida because were getting cold fronts swinging thru here this week and we have a northerly flow.The winds would have to swing around to the S or SE for a return flow to give us a shot a rain. By the way our next shot a rain will be in June 08. Only kidding we might get a rain event or two this winter.

[Sanibel]

You can see a low level inflowing band on visible.

I have a virus that keeps popping Internet Explorer spam up on my screen. It has taken over my computer. Have to get it removed (not cheap).

[tolakram]

You can see a low level inflowing band on visible.

I have a virus that keeps popping Internet Explorer spam up on my screen. It has taken over my computer. Have to get it removed (not cheap).

Firefox is free.

[wxman57]

I see a weak frontal boundary west of Jamaica. Convection is diminishing and/or moving inland into Central America. Development chances remote.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see a weak frontal boundary west of Jamaica. Convection is diminishing and/or moving inland into Central America. Development chances remote.

Saw GFS plays a little game down there..nothing alarming though for teh CONUS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Sanibel]

Had computer cleaned out and new anti-spyware software installed.


There's an inflow down by Panama, but the feature is weak and will probably cross to EPAC. This could be it for 2007.

[Frank2]

Yes, the GFS always shows something down there - it's practically a year 'round feature...

I agree - the season is apparently over...

Pray for rain...