Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the 18z GFS continues to show a very strong front in mid November, but it has backed off a bit on the setup for possible wintery weather for TX (though it still looks possible in Oklahoma and Kansas and places further north)...

[CaptinCrunch]

Yall do know CRACK kills??

It's forecast to be in the mid 80's today, and with post cool frontal passage (after sunset) temps tomorrow with only reach the lower 60's, which is about the norm for this time of year in NCTX.

forecasted temps show a steady rise after Wednesday, and we will be back up into the mid to upper 70's maybe low 80's by next week.

Hell, I didn't even fell bad about slacking with the firewood gathering this past summer, I'm heading into winter with less than 1 cord and I think I my have wood left over after win-spring.....

FYI: The average 1st freeze of the year for NCTX is Nov. 17th.... :cold

Afternoon Update:

THE COLDEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS
ILLUSTRATES A 1035MB SFC HIGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE...
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AND TUES NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR READINGS /5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL/.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WED
MORNING...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. GFS MAINTAINS WARMER TEMPS WED
MORNING THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL
BE COMPLETELY IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND AS A RESULT WILL GO
WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER. LOW LYING AREAS AND
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF URBANIZED CENTERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
WITNESS FROST ON ROOFTOPS AND GRASSY SURFACES.

AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER WARM
DAYS /AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL/ AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING SFC LOW IN SE COLORADO.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Forecasted highs in the 60s here the next two days with lows in the 40s (a good 5-8 degrees below normal). This will be short lived though and by the end of the week we warm up again. Might be looking at another cool front by early next week though and then possibly a stronger one late next week. Could get interesting. For now, however, I am just looking forward to the next two days!

[Opal storm]

NWS now has a light freeze for the rural parts of NW Florida Wednesday night. Let's see if it stands.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 8&map.y=74

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the current NWS forecast holds up, then my prediction will end up being right...

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. (8˚ below normal)

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 68. East wind around 5 mph. (7˚ below normal)

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. East wind around 5 mph. (7˚ below normal)

[Scorpion]

The next few days should be really nice and cool, with highs in the low 70's and lows in the low 50's with one or two nights in the 40's.

[HarlequinBoy]

Freeze warnings up for northern Gulf Coast states, including Memphis, Birmingham, and Atlanta.

[Opal storm]

Freeze watch all the way down here.

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND A PORTION OF
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT THE FIRST ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR OF
THE SEASON INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE WATCH AREA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DROP FURTHER
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. FROST WILL BE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

[cpdaman]

the last 3 strong la nina's have been in 73' 77' and 89'. what do they all have in common?

signifigant snowfall in florida (most likely northern) at some time during the year.

will this season's la nina be categorized as "strong"? Joe sobel (sp?) from accuweather says it looks like it will be at least moderate so break out those snow shovels jacksonville and tallahassee lol

[lrak]

Big ice storm in Corpus with a big fish kill in the bays because of the cold back in 1989 if my memory serves me correctly.

[jdray]

I would love a repeat of 1989.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Big ice storm in Corpus with a big fish kill in the bays because of the cold back in 1989 if my memory serves me correctly.

Yep. i was living in the RGV at the time. Lowest temp recorded during that pre Christmas freeze was 12. Didn't get above 32 for three days.

[CaptinCrunch]

Big ice storm in Corpus with a big fish kill in the bays because of the cold back in 1989 if my memory serves me correctly.

Yep. i was living in the RGV at the time. Lowest temp recorded during that pre Christmas freeze was 12. Didn't get above 32 for three days.

D/FW hit -1 on Christmas Eve that year, it was part of the cold snap that lasted a week with highs staying well below 32 degrees (temps in the lower 20's to upper teens for highs and lows in the lower teen's to single digits for lows). I remember it well as I was living in and Apartment and was 1 of only 3 people in the building that didn't have a pipe burst in the wall due to being frozen. I did go for 3 straight days without any water preasure.

On Record December 1989 had 21 recorded freezes which is tied for 1st place with 1963 for most freezes in the month of Dec. Oh yea, our first freeze of the seasom was recorded on November 3rd that year.

As for the rest of winter 89/90 we saw our last freeze (32) on Feb 17, 1990 and recorded a total of 30 freezes for the winter (Dec-Feb).

[Johnny]

I guess the big cold front for next week is a no go?

[Ed Mahmoud]

A couple of days before Christmas in 1989, we had snow flurries in AUS, and a day later a morning low of +2ºF. -17ºC. Bitter cold for all but people living in International Falls, who call that a normal January day.

[Portastorm]

Well, while it's nice to stroll down memory lane and recall the sharp Arctic Outbreak of December 1989 ... the La Nina going into that winter is different from what we are seeing now. There are a lot of other influential indices that should be watched like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-- (how's that for acronyms?!) besides La Nina.

Interestingly enough, Accuwx's JB is now saying 1949-50 is the winter he is locking onto. That winter was quite warm and quite dry for us in Texas.

[JonathanBelles]

What was the winter of 1899? La nina, El nino? did they even watch ENSO back then?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Well, while it's nice to stroll down memory lane and recall the sharp Arctic Outbreak of December 1989 ... the La Nina going into that winter is different from what we are seeing now. There are a lot of other influential indices that should be watched like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-- (how's that for acronyms?!) besides La Nina.

Interestingly enough, Accuwx's JB is now saying 1949-50 is the winter he is locking onto. That winter was quite warm and quite dry for us in Texas.

Hopefully JB will be as correct as he was about hurricane season this year and last.

[Below N.O.]

the last 3 strong la nina's have been in 73' 77' and 89'. what do they all have in common?

signifigant snowfall in florida (most likely northern) at some time during the year.

will this season's la nina be categorized as "strong"? Joe sobel (sp?) from accuweather says it looks like it will be at least moderate so break out those snow shovels jacksonville and tallahassee lol

That's interesting! I wasn't aware that those years were all strong La Nina's.

[CaptinCrunch]

I wont ever compare the winter of 89' to anything this coming season.......

As I have already stated the Dec-Feb winter season will be a record top 10 warmest for the nation as an whole, with only the NW, and Northeren Plains having an cooler than avg season.

Now I'm not saying that it wont get cold, I as expect we will see a few arctic intrutions into the South, but for the most part the number of mild/warm days will out way the cold/very cold days this season.