SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[PTrackerLA]

Not a bust here, NWS is going with 37 tonight!

[southerngale]

It will be interesting to see when we finally see our first frost/freeze around here given the La Nina pattern. I see they have given the gulf coast a likely chance of drought developing this winter along with above normal temps = yuck.

Dry and above normal temps - yuck indeed, sorta. If it's gonna be dry, it might be nice to not to be too cold though - could be perfect weather for doing things outdoors. Last year we had cooler temps and a VERY WET winter, yet not a single snowflake. Just rain, rain, and more rain... all winter long. We couldn't do anything outside because the ground never had a chance to dry out. It was disgusting outside all winter.
Coming from someone who has always loved thunderstorms and rainy weather in general, I admit that I've been enjoying the drier weather the past few months. We had like 16 months in a row of so much rain, it was unreal. With all the flooding that occurred during that timeframe, it sure is nice to finally have a real yard again! Mud and slop = yuck.

I'm hoping we can somehow sneak in the right conditions that brings us some snow this winter. I can dream...

[vbhoutex]

At this point it looks like the front is hung up between College Station and Houston at about the NW cornere of Harris County. Haven't seen muchmovemnet this way in the last few hours. We may end up with just a glancing blow if this keeps up.

12:30 pm and it looks like it is filtering in now. Certainly isn't coming in like it was originally announced several days ago.

Still hasn't gotten through town or IT IS A BUST!!! Not sure which yet. We are still at 70º in the Galleria area. SOME FRONT!!!!LOLOLOL!!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have 90% clear skies overhead right now with temperatures in the upper 60s and falling dewpoints (currently in the mid 40s). If these clear skies remain through the night, then tomorrow morning is looking to be quite chilly (<45˚)!

[Extremeweatherguy]

dewpoint now down to 43˚ at Hooks airport as of 4pm.

update: dewpoint now down to 41˚ at Hooks and temperatures are starting to drop too. My thermometer is currently reading 66.2˚ (5:13pm).

[CajunMama]

Odd that it's cooler over here. You always get the weather before us. It's 63 here with a dewpoint of 33. NWS is forecasting a low of 37 tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The clouds have built back in some this evening and they have slowed the cooling process a bit (It is 63˚ at 8pm). However, the dewpoint remains quite low (in the upper 30s), so any clearing we recieve overnight should lead to a pretty rapid temperature drop. Depending on how much clearing we get, I think low to mid 40s is still a good bet north of Houston with mid to upper 40s at IAH and near 50˚ south of town.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the NWS now thinks we will not see much clearing at all tonight. Even with dewpoints in the 30s, it looks like the best we will do is near 50˚ in downtown Houston, mid to upper 40s north of town, and lower 50s south of town. If we would have been clear, then temperatures would have been a good 5˚+ cooler. Too bad for those wanting a good chill...

FWIW though, the NWS did mention that any area that happens to see some breaks in the clouds will be much cooler than surrounding areas...so do not be surprised if a few places do manage to get below 45˚ tonight.

[southerngale]

It's still cool enough, EWG. Patience, grasshopper.

It's supposed to get down to 41° tonight and 43° tomorrow night. It was so hot recently... I think the cooler temps feel great!! Currently, it's 51° - ahhh.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the clouds held steady all last night and lows only reached the lower 50s here. Tonight, however, looks to be more promising for cooler temperatures since we should finally clear out and the dewpoints will still be quite low. I expect widespread 40s across the area.

[southerngale]

It got down to 44° and 45° at the two Instaweather (Weatherbug) stations closest to me. It feels great outside right now at 56°

I can't wait until it gets cold enough to have a fire in the fireplace, but I think that's gonna be a while. Highs in the mid to upper 70's and/or 80° the next several days. This cold shot will be short-lived. It's still nice weather though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Today has been the chilliest one so far this fall (for highs that is). So far, IAH has only reached 65˚ and Hooks has only reached 64˚. It sure does feel great!

Too bad this all ends by tomorrow...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the weather seems to have taken a surprising turn tonight. Skies have become clear, winds are getting lighter and the temperatures are falling fast (I am sitting at 58.3˚ at 6:11pm). With dewpoints still in the 30s, I think the NWS forecast of lows in the upper 40s to near 50 with mostly cloudy skies could be in jeopardy. They might need to tweak the lows downward a few degrees in the next update (unless the clouds suddenly decide to build back in before then).

update: Now down to 56˚ at 6:36pm

[Extremeweatherguy]

7pm airport reports...

Conroe - 50˚
Hooks - 52˚
IAH - 55˚
Hobby - 57˚

My thermometer - 54˚

With dewpoints still in the upper 30s and lower 40s coupled with mostly clear skies and calm winds, I think 40s are a very good bet this evening.

[Extremeweatherguy]

8pm temperatures...

Conroe - 48˚
Hooks - 50˚
IAH - 53˚
Hobby - 55˚

My thermometer - 51.4˚

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well I had gotten as low as 50˚ 45 minutes ago, but a broken deck of clouds has built back in and my temperature has risen to 52.5˚ (at 9:24pm). The NWS says to expect back and forth periods of cloudiness overnight though (with decent temperature drops taking place in the clear areas), so I think 44-48˚ is a good bet for tonight assuming this back and forth temperature movement (with cooling winning out over warming) continues.

update (10:19pm): The clouds remain and they are definitely a wrench in the forecast. My current temperature is now 54.7˚...up 4.5˚ from where I was 1.5 hours ago. Hopefully they start clearing soon so that we can resume a downward temperature trend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

what a weird night. It was cloudy and 56˚ when I went to bed, then we cleared a bit overnight and managed to reach the 40s (48.7˚ on my thermometer), but now it is cloudy again with a temperature of 52˚ at 5:43am.

[Dionne]

37.4F at sunrise. Light frost on roof tops.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 PM CST FRI NOV 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT SO WITH LIGHT SFC
WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT
DECIDE ON THAT FOR SURE. OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY BUT POSSIBLE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. POPS WERE HELD AT 20 PERCENT FOR SE TX BUT CHANCES
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT DEPENDING ON GULF MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS TX EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND STRONG
POLAR JET OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE INITIALIZATION FOR THE 12Z
RUNS SEEMS TO BE BETTER TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE DESERT SW MONDAY AND
THEN INTO W TX ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THESE AND
RESULTS IN A MORE CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
TRENDED TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY BE
POSSIBLE TUE/WED. THE GFS/CANADIAN TAKES THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER MUCH OF TX TUE INTO WED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST WILL STICK WITH MAINLY 40 POPS FOR
NOW JUST IN CASE THE MODELS FLIP AGAIN ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. TUE
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHICH MAY COME TO AN END LATE WED. BOTH MODELS BRING A
STOUT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH SOME BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. STILL...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REALLY PUSH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS PARTS OF TX COULD BE PRIMED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

[Ptarmigan]

It's more humid and warmer right now. This could be a setup for a severe weather event next week. November has had severe weather events including the 1992 tornado outbreaks in the Houston area.