ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center November update

Weak to moderate La Nina is predicted to continue at least thru the first couple of months of 2008.Read all the November outlook at link above.

[Jim Hughes]

Climate Prediction Center November update

Weak to moderate La Nina is predicted to continue at least thru the first couple of months of 2008.Read all the November outlook at link above.

The most recent trimonthly reading was just below the moderate level and the trade winds have gotten stronger again. The recent minor step backwards was just part of the overall process. A moderate event continues.

[cycloneye]

BoM 14th of November Update

La Nina continues to get stronger according to the Australians.Read all the update at hypertext link above.

[JonathanBelles]

"All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the start of autumn 2008."

[cycloneye]

"All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the start of autumn 2008."

Being this update from the Australians,when they say Autumm,is Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.In other words,La Nina until at least the start of Spring 2008.

[Cyclone1]

"All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the start of autumn 2008."

Being this update from the Australians,when they say Autumm,is Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.In other words,La Nina until at least the start of Spring 2008.

I thought the Atumnal equinox, which is in September, starts the beginning of Autumn, world-wide, regardless of weather conditions. I think they mean exactly what they say, La Nina until Autumn/September. The name stays the same, even though the conditions are opposite south of the equator, right?

[StormWarning1]

"All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the start of autumn 2008."

Being this update from the Australians,when they say Autumm,is Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.In other words,La Nina until at least the start of Spring 2008.

I thought the Atumnal equinox, which is in September, starts the beginning of Autumn, world-wide, regardless of weather conditions. I think they mean exactly what they say, La Nina until Autumn/September. The name stays the same, even though the conditions are opposite south of the equator, right?

If you read the details section of the article is states the La Nina conditions are expected to last until March 2008. The summary also says La Nina thru the southern autumn of 2008..

[Cyclone1]

I have no idea.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly Update

Moderate La Nina thru Early 2008 is what they are forecasting.Read the whole update at hypertext link above.Cyclone1,CPC is more clear for you than the Aussies about when La Nina will start to fade.

[Cyclone1]

Haha, okay.

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

The ENSO models are forecasting La Nina to be around for at least until May.

[cycloneye]

BoM 12/5/07 Update



The Australians say La Nina will stay moderate at least thru next Spring in the Northern Hemisphere (Autumm in Southern Hemisphere)

[Cyclone1]

May... keeps closing in on hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/6/07 Update



Moderate La nina until May.If this verifies,then Neutral ENSO will kick in during the start of the 2008 hurricane season.The question is,how much time will neutral ENSO stay in the Pacific before El Nino comes.

[Cyclone1]

Or will an El Nino come?

[Squarethecircle]

Doubt it, there was a minor one the year before last and I don't think it will have time to develop anyway.

[Cyclone1]

I agree. 2008-09 winter will likely be a neutral one.

Though, I'd like a nice El Nino, I could use the rain.

[cycloneye]

Here are the ENSO models in their December forecast:

Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions from November
About ENSO outlooks
Product Code: IDCKGLM000

La Niña To Persist For Several Months
Summary
The latest forecasts of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation from international coupled climate models point to continued moderate La Niña conditions well into 2008. The La Niña has intensified in recent weeks in line with predictions from October. While most models surveyed here are not forecasting conditions to strengthen further, they do agree that it will persist at least until the end of the southern summer. Most models are producing very similar forecasts to those issued one month ago.

Colder than average sea surface temperatures (SST) are now present across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The western Pacific has cooled significantly, with the 7-day NINO4 index falling from -0.41°C on 28 October to -1.09°C on 25 November in response to stronger than normal trade winds. Waters below the surface are still colder than average across most of the equatorial Pacific and, significantly for Australian climate, the SOI has risen to +12 (up from +4 at the end of October). Our ENSO Wrap-up has more details.

The models summarised in the table below are in agreement that the La Niña event will persist well into 2008. At present there is no suggestion in their forecasts that an El Niño is likely to develop in the outlook period as none of the forecasts from these models reach El Niño levels by southern spring 2008. The most likely outcome is for La Niña to gradually weaken and for conditions to return to neutral around May 2008

ENSO Models December Update

[P.K.]

2/1/08 BoM update:

Summary: La Niña strengthens

A La Niña event is firmly established in the Pacific, strengthening over the past month and contributing to the enhanced eastern Australian rainfall since November.

Cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now extend further west along the equator than at any time since 2000, while warmer than average SSTs surround northern Australia. The December 2007 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of 14.4 is the highest monthly SOI value since April 2006. Trade Winds remain enhanced and cloudiness continues to be suppressed along much of the central equatorial Pacific; both indicators of the now mature event. While sub-surface temperatures remain cooler than normal in the east, some warming has occurred in the western regions.

Although some computer models suggest that the event is nearing its peak, most continue to indicate the persistence of cool Pacific Ocean temperatures, consistent with a La Niña, until at least autumn 2008.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Jim Hughes]

The La Nina is actually in it's maturing phase and is shifting from east to west based. Any stregthening will be subtle. So it has basically peaked. But it will not go away as fast as the El Nino did last year. This one lingers on longer.