South Caribbean Disturbance

#21 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:25 am

there are no troughs to pull it up. If the northeastern side can get going then it has more of a chance to move WNW to NW...but if the center develops farther south as it looks like it is trying EPAC bound it goes.

Actually the thing is very disorganized at this time and I give it 5% chance of development.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #22 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:27 am

thank you gatorcane for that information

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:27 am

Typhoon_Willie · #24 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:58 pm

You might want to check out the area between Jamaica and Columbia on the visible loop. There were some thunderstorms on the increase there.

Typhoon_Willie · #25 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:06 pm

Looks to me that there is a low level circulation between Columbia and Jamaica moving in a westward fashion.

Typhoon_Willie · #26 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:46 pm

Here is an IR loop of the region.

Cyclone1 · #27 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:00 pm

I agree Typhoon_Willie. That area is getting a bit more interesting. Something could spin up.

#28 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:48 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #29 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:07 pm

Looks pretty impressive...maybe a tropical depression soon?

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:08 pm

Looks "impressive" but in the loops there is no organization whatsoever. Just a lot of scattered convection.

Just look at the shear values. I think you guys are expecting too much from Mother Nature.

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:15 pm

499
ABNT20 KNHC 102213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
ARE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE ARE FEW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

#32 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:34 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Looks pretty impressive...maybe a tropical depression soon?

Soon as in the next 72-120 hours?

caribepr · #33 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:39 pm

It doesn't look as interesting as it did, but I'll be glad when it goes away (though if it meant some cooling off here, no one would mind...it's been incredibly hot in the daytime!).

Sanibel · #34 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:59 pm

A little thin, but I see what looks to be a center and spin in curvature north of Panama. Currents appear to be towards EPAC. Could have something here.

Yes, TB Hunter, we need the rain.

A big Coast Guard four engine prop plane flew over at low altitude here before sunset. It was cool.

#35 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 6:50 pm

Looks good enough to be an invest. Maybe they could throw us a bone since it's the end of the season.

#36 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:08 pm

It'll be inland into Costa Rica in 24-36 hours then out into the East Pac. No time for development.

#37 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:06 pm

Is now invest 93L.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=99021

Cyclone1 · #38 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:12 pm

"We got one, baby!" -Dusty, from Twister

South Caribbean Disturbance

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