Are the seasonal forecasts worth anything???

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion, no they are not. We who live anywhere along the U.S.
coastline should every hurricane season be prepared for the possible effects
of hurricane and not let a forecast dictate that. I just don't believe the science
of hurricane forecasting will ever be perfected to know exactly how many storms we will have and how many will be monsters and where they will go. I also think Katrina and Rita has left everyone (NHC/media/forecasters,etc.) really trigger happy. Everything the models predicted as areas for possible development the NHC and most everyone else jumped on it more than ever this season. Do you guys remember the Cat.5 that was suppose to be in the GOM in September? I guess it will take a awhile before things calm down. Anyway like the Boy Scouts we should always be prepared.

[Stormcenter]

I agree. All they do is scare people, hype up the insurance company like you said, and give people an excuse to complain when we don't get 20 storms.

Don't forget the good old oil companies who love the excuse to jack up the
prices due to a phantom storm.

[jlauderdal]

We are now in the beginning of November with our 14th named storm. More than likely
the rest of November with be quiet. With this in mind, the 2007 hurricane season will go down as a near normal season.

MY POINT..

Both Dr. Gray and NOAA, predicted a season way above normal. Thus do
we need these seasonal forecasts when most are never close to being correct.

It seems that all these forecasts do is get the insurance industry in a frenzy to
raise rates.


MY OPINION

Certainly not worth the resources that are put into them, I have been questioning this for years on this board. Every year gray and his team get pr when they release forecasts and really whats the difference if they are right or wrong. I would say cancel the seasonal forecasts or at least no public funding and pour everything into track forecasting 5 days and closer. Thsoe forecasts can really have a financial effect when accurate. Sorry gray, its a waste of time and money.

[Derek Ortt]

oil companies do NOT affect the price of oil. That is determined by commodity traders


as for seasonal forecasts, there is some use to the June and August forecasts, if used correctly. The way they are used on this board is NOT the appropriate way to sue them. They should be used as a general guide on activity, not an absolute forecast. If used properly, they provided some good insight as to what was going to happen this year. We had a far more destructive season than last year... as forecast

[cpdaman]

last year i brought up the intresting idea that forecasters for hurricane's were immune to much critisim because they said they were in the developmental stages of these sort of predictions.... and at the same time the insurance industry's rates were closely related to these forecasts...hmmmm..........however looking at the link showing last 8 years of Dr. gray's guesstimates he has not high balled the forecast numbers (in retrospect compared with the totals) , (which would be the eye opener) even though one of the companies providing the funds for the forecast is a insurance group.

i think strong el nino years produce the highest rate of predictability ( in long range forecasts) other wise it is a crap shoot, and as long as the forecast focuses on total storms, and not US LAND FALLING storms which the INSURANCE industry's care about (no disrespect to JApan, central america, austrailia, and the like) it devalues the value of the forecast.

[hial2]

oil companies do NOT affect the price of oil. That is determined by commodity traders


as for seasonal forecasts, there is some use to the June and August forecasts, if used correctly. The way they are used on this board is NOT the appropriate way to sue them. They should be used as a general guide on activity, not an absolute forecast. If used properly, they provided some good insight as to what was going to happen this year. We had a far more destructive season than last year... as forecast

Then they should not give projected number of storms, or percentages of CONUS land falling possibilities,areas more likely to get hit by a storm,etc,etc...
When they're wrong even on monthly forecasts, their credibility is shot...the crying wolf syndrome will eventually get people totally unprepared when the next inevitable major storm hits..2008 or beyond..

[jinftl]

Forecasts as to overall steering patterns (strength and placement of Bermuda high for example) would be of value....but even those would be misread and misunderstood.

If these seasonal forecasts continue, people will gauge their need to be prepared each season on a crap shoot. People need to be as prepared each June 1 no matter what....seasonal forecasts reinforce the opposite behvior.

[hial2]

Forecasts as to overall steering patterns (strength and placement of Bermuda high for example) would be of value....but even those would be misread and misunderstood.

If these seasonal forecasts continue, people will gauge their need to be prepared each season on a crap shoot. People need to be as prepared each June 1 no matter what....seasonal forecasts reinforce the opposite behvior.

IMO,the only value about forecasting what you mention would be if there would be something to track...I think there's a tendency to information overload..Just remind everyone that it's June 1st and environmental conditions appear to be favorable or unfavorable for an active season, and make sure to have the supplies you should have anyway just in case..

[Sanibel]

We just got lucky. The normal steering currents would have sent two category 5 monsters up into the Gulf in an average year.

[hial2]

We just got lucky. The normal steering currents would have sent two category 5 monsters up into the Gulf in an average year.

Exactly my point. It's not just this year we got lucky,most years we get lucky...until we get one..I remember believing Andrew would not hit because hurricanes always veered north before they got to Florida..Now is the opposite,and that creates complacency as well..How many every day citizens are going to believe Dr Gray or NHC next year if (when) they ring the "alarm bell"??