BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[HURAKAN]

11/1430 UTC 10.2N 91.8E T2.5/2.5 06B -- Bay of Bengal

[Derek Ortt]

WTIO31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 10.4N 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 91.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.9N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.6N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.5N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.5N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (NONAME) LOCATED 100NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS, AS
WELL AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUPPORT THIS INTENSITY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN 111743Z TRMM 85H MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTI-
NUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU
24. AFTER THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR DEVELOPS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE AND OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. DUE TO
THESE MOSTLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE STORM WILL INTEN-
SIFY MODERATELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND
122100Z.//
NNNN

not sure why JTWC slowed down the rate of intensification.

Earth to IMD, this IS a cyclonic storm

[Derek Ortt]

This likely will be a disaster

http://www.nwhhc.com/TC9-B.gif

UKMET model forecast at T+72h. Model NCEP is similar. Moving in a NW to NNE direction toward NE India/Southern Bengledesh. Resolution of this output I believe is 2.5 degree

Not only do we have an intensifying TC, but we may have one that takes up most of the Bay of Bengal

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 002
WTIO31 PGTW 112100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 10.4N 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 91.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.9N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.6N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.5N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.5N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 91.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[RL3AO]

What is IMD waiting for to name it? An eye?

[Derek Ortt]

"Yemyin" had an eye and it was only a deep depression

And if IMD were to call this Yemyin, their director should be horsewhipped

[HURAKAN]

WAKE UP PEOPLE!

[Derek Ortt]

EARTH TO THE CLOWNS AT IMD


That is a strong tropical storm or hurricane equivalent. Do your job or let another nation do it for you

[Derek Ortt]

if anyong here is reading this board


IGNORE ALL OFFICIAL INFORMATION!. The official statements are wrong and listening to them could place your lives in danger. I usually do not say this, but keep checking in with this thread for the latest information

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 NOV 2007 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 10:36:15 N Lon : 90:57:45 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -57.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Derek Ortt]

that is right in line with what I am thinking the intensity is

[RL3AO]

Is there anything the WMO can do (better yet will do) about the IMD? Like replace them with a new RSMC (don't know if there is anyone else out there)?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I a million percent agree with Derek ortt, this area is a area which has had cyclones kill hundreds of thousands of people in the past. In yet the IMD is so very very slow, normally yes I do question the other forecast centers, but normally I do that because I disagree about one thing or another. But what the IMD is doing is a little bit more serious, hopefully they upgrade the system and put the needed warnings and info out to the people that need it.

I think this system is already a strong tropical storm.

[Derek Ortt]

even Great One's MWHC would be better than the IMD

[cycloneye]

What is the name of this Cyclone to edit the title?

[Derek Ortt]

the IMD is refusing to name this. They still have this as a depression, and not even a deep depression

[cycloneye]

That is incredible.NRL has it as Tropical Cyclone 06B.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

even Great One's MWHC would be better than the IMD

At least great one would error on the high side. Which can be a good thing to warn people in the path of a strong system.

[HURAKAN]

The next name is "Yemyin."

The Pakistan Meteorological Department referred to Tropical Cyclone 03B as "Tropical Cyclone Yemyin". However, the official WMO body responsible for tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea, the India Meteorological Department, did not name the storm. Thus, the storm officially has no name and the name "Yemyin" remained unused after the storm.

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_North ... e-03B_note

[RL3AO]

The next name should be Sidr.