After Bill what is out there to look at?
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cycloneye
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After Bill what is out there to look at?
Well now that Bill went inland dissipating but raining hard in many places in the SE US what is out there to begin to look at.There is a tropical wave emerging africa right now more north in latitud than past waves this season.By the way GFS follows this wave with a low pressure but what the next runs from this and other models will say?But the question is if it will survive the long travel thru the atlantic?Now that july has arrived here in Puerto Rico we begin to look to our east as the area east of the lesser antilles becomes a hot spot for developments especially from late july and beyond.The rest of the atlantic is tranquil with some upper lows in the central atlantic and the western caribbean as the TUTT is in that area.
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Still A Bit Suspicious
I am still watching the old 93L with one eye. It has showed some signs this morning that it still has some life. It will be approaching the eastern Caribbean in the next day or so. This is where July storms can form. ULL to its north should stay far enough north to not bother it significantly. Worth watching anyhow. Wave off Africa looks good but its early for that area. Enjoy the weather if you can. Cheers!!
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Toni - 574
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Re: Still A Bit Suspicious
Steve H. wrote:I am still watching the old 93L with one eye. It has showed some signs this morning that it still has some life. It will be approaching the eastern Caribbean in the next day or so. This is where July storms can form. ULL to its north should stay far enough north to not bother it significantly. Worth watching anyhow. Wave off Africa looks good but its early for that area. Enjoy the weather if you can. Cheers!!
Agree, Steve H. I think 93L has the best shot now for development. The Islands needs to keep an eye out for this little spin. Could be a factor in their weather in about a week or so.
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wx247
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Any thing out there to inhibit development. Latitude looks to be better in recent days. I know there is not much convection, but anything else negative?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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chadtm80
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 01 JUL 2003
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS NEAR 33.2N 87.7W AT 01/1500 UTC
MOVING NE 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON BILL FROM NHC. SEE FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KWNH ISSUED BY HPC. HEAVY
RAINS... ISOLATED TORNADOES... AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE DEPRESSION AS IT SPREADS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE
SE UNITED STATES.
TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG 15W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT
WITH A 1013 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE PICTURES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED WAVE LEAVING THE
AFRICAN COAST WITH LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-22W.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND ITS POSITION IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 47W/48W IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 47W
S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER THIS
IS A WAVE OR JUST A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL IN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 55W/56W S OF 17N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE
IS OBSERVED IN THE 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES... A SMALL WIND SHIFT FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS... AND
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS WHICH SHOW A LOW/MID CLOUD BROAD
ROTATION RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION
OVER S AMERICA IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 94W/95W IS NOW S OF THE AREA.
AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W
12N48W 9N61W. ITCZ IS ILL-DEFINED W OF 30W AND EXHIBITS A WEAK
DOUBLE STRUCTURE. CONVECTION IS RATHER WIMPY TODAY WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 54W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 39W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N24W 5N35W.
AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 01 JUL 2003
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS NEAR 33.2N 87.7W AT 01/1500 UTC
MOVING NE 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON BILL FROM NHC. SEE FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KWNH ISSUED BY HPC. HEAVY
RAINS... ISOLATED TORNADOES... AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE DEPRESSION AS IT SPREADS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE
SE UNITED STATES.
TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG 15W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT
WITH A 1013 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE PICTURES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED WAVE LEAVING THE
AFRICAN COAST WITH LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-22W.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND ITS POSITION IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 47W/48W IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 47W
S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER THIS
IS A WAVE OR JUST A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL IN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 55W/56W S OF 17N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE
IS OBSERVED IN THE 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES... A SMALL WIND SHIFT FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS... AND
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS WHICH SHOW A LOW/MID CLOUD BROAD
ROTATION RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION
OVER S AMERICA IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 94W/95W IS NOW S OF THE AREA.
AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W
12N48W 9N61W. ITCZ IS ILL-DEFINED W OF 30W AND EXHIBITS A WEAK
DOUBLE STRUCTURE. CONVECTION IS RATHER WIMPY TODAY WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 54W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 39W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG A
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N24W 5N35W.
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