INVEST 93L: SW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

[Squarethecircle]

So much for that, I guess.

[boca]

Maybe the moisture will head north, probably wishful thinking at this point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121331
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1331 UTC MON NOV 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071112 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071112 1200 071113 0000 071113 1200 071114 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 82.7W 11.5N 85.0W 11.5N 87.4W 11.5N 89.9W
BAMD 11.2N 82.7W 11.6N 85.6W 12.2N 88.5W 12.8N 91.4W
BAMM 11.2N 82.7W 11.6N 85.1W 11.9N 87.7W 12.0N 90.5W
LBAR 11.2N 82.7W 11.6N 84.6W 12.5N 86.7W 13.3N 88.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071114 1200 071115 1200 071116 1200 071117 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 92.7W 10.6N 99.1W 10.6N 106.0W 11.1N 112.3W
BAMD 13.4N 94.2W 15.0N 99.1W 17.1N 102.2W 18.7N 101.1W
BAMM 12.0N 93.3W 12.3N 99.1W 13.3N 104.4W 13.8N 107.3W
LBAR 13.5N 90.1W 13.6N 92.6W 13.5N 94.9W 13.1N 96.2W
SHIP 29KTS 28KTS 21KTS 20KTS
DSHP 32KTS 31KTS 25KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 82.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 80.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

I tought they ended doing runs for this.

[Sanibel]

I guess that weird vortex hanging east of the convection center WAS the center, after all, since it is still offshore and spinning naked east of the overland center.

[gatorcane]

the energy continues to move NW into the NW Caribbean -- now lets see if we get persistence here because it would be something we would need to watch if something can get going in the NW Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

[gatorcane]

The naked swirl is drifting NW from what I can tell...

what do you see?

[Sanibel]

Same. Weak feature with dry air over the surface spiral fighting to stay offshore. I doubt it is trying to creep up the boundary between the two High's WX57 showed us.

[gatorcane]

Same. Weak feature with dry air over the surface spiral fighting to stay offshore. I doubt it is trying to creep up the boundary between the two High's WX57 showed us.

What are the chances there are two huge surface high features north of it in mid November? Unbelievable. We could really use the rain.

[Sanibel]

Maybe those blocking High's are the Nina's contribution to this late season?

I'd laugh if this managed to stay offshore and form.

[gatorcane]

Maybe those blocking High's are the Nina's contribution to this late season?

I'd laugh if this managed to stay offshore and form.

Well it probably will move ashore but what could be more concerning is the convection now developing in the NW Caribbean. I don't think many anticipated all the convection we are seeing this morning -- although it could die off over the next 24 hours.

The fact is that the trough still remains in the Caribbean and more lows can develop from it....

[Sanibel]

I don't think so. If you look, that convection is a band associated with this weak naked spiral.

[gatorcane]

The LLC is clearly moving NNW now....lets see how long it can do this before it makes a west wobble back into Nicaragua.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

277
ABNT20 KNHC 121556
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST MON NOV 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THIS
SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[dixiebreeze]

Interesting that they used the words "POORLY ORGANIZED" at all, indicating there is some organization in the NW Caribbean.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

It's moving onshore but yet another swirl has developed off the coast of Columbia. It's striking how fast the low clouds are moving to the west.

[Sanibel]

The moisture has diminished.

[vegastar]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130946
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/WALLACE

[Squarethecircle]

Completely and utterly obliterated, as far as I can see.