Cold Turkey Day for Texas?

[gboudx]

Lately, my feelings about the DFW weather have been

[Extremeweatherguy]

Come on EWG....give us a cold Turkey day!!

I'm heading off to the hill country (Wimberley) from Nov. 28th to the 3rd of December. I'm hoping from some cold weather while we are there.

Don't worry. I think we will be in for some good, chilly weather later on this month (If JB and the models are right). Today's 18z GFS even shows quite a few days with highs only in the 40s or 50s starting in about about 10-15 days. Could definitely be an interesting close to November!

As for Thanksgiving in particular...the 18z run is showing a seasonal day with highs probably in the 60s and lows in the 40s with a chance of showers and the wind turning from the NE to SE. Nothing too warm or too cold. Things could always change though..so stay tuned!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest 6z GFS run shows a chilly Thanksgiving with highs likely in the 50s, lows in the 40s with variable clouds and a chance of showers early in the day.

[Johnny]

That sounds like the perfect kind of Turkey Day. It isn't all that far away so hopefully the models are seeing something.

[double D]

The GFS has been somewhat consistent on showing a pretty good cool down for the end of November. I'm feeling pretty confident that we will have some refreshing fall weather for Thanksgiving.

Hopefully the GFS will latch on to a colder solution and show our first freeze of the season. We need to get rid of these bugs!

[lrak]

Do the models show the cold air making it as far south as Corpus Christi?

[CaptinCrunch]

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the models, because the last few cool fronts that have made it in to texas didn't last that long. We are expecting a cool front here by tomorrow afternoon that will drop temps back down to seasonal (60's/40's) but it's only for 1 or 2 day period, then temps back in to the lower 70's for high's. Next front is forecast for Sunday night that may bring us back down to the mid 60's again, but only for another day or two.

NTX avg temp's for mid November are mid to upper 60's/40's, but we have been running on average of 77.5 for highs and 56.8 for lows. So far for the Month we have only had 2 days with highs in the 60's, (65 x2) the rest have been between 71 and 84, with our coldest reading of 48 also twice. We are 5 days away form our annual 1st freeze of the season, however I don't expect to see our first freeze till the first week of December if even then.

Texas winter wont start till late December (maybe) and run thru early Feburary, then it's back to a late fall like season with the back and forth temps.

[Portastorm]

I don't know about that ... usually La Nina winters have one or two dramatic cold events for us in Texas and they often happen early in winter (like December). Then the remainder of winter ends up being pretty warm and dry. We shall see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the models, because the last few cool fronts that have made it in to texas didn't last that long. We are expecting a cool front here by tomorrow afternoon that will drop temps back down to seasonal (60's/40's) but it's only for 1 or 2 day period, then temps back in to the lower 70's for high's. Next front is forecast for Sunday night that may bring us back down to the mid 60's again, but only for another day or two.

NTX avg temp's for mid November are mid to upper 60's/40's, but we have been running on average of 77.5 for highs and 56.8 for lows. So far for the Month we have only had 2 days with highs in the 60's, (65 x2) the rest have been between 71 and 84, with our coldest reading of 48 also twice. We are 5 days away form our annual 1st freeze of the season, however I don't expect to see our first freeze till the first week of December if even then.

Texas winter wont start till late December (maybe) and run thru early Feburary, then it's back to a late fall like season with the back and forth temps.

I have a feeling that you will be shocked come later this month. I am willing to bet that you do see your first freeze before December 1st..and Houston might even see a freeze before then as well. I could be wrong, but if JB and the models are right, then I will not be. A pattern change does appear to be upcoming and I am definitely thrilled!

BTW, the 12z GFS was showing lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s for Houston on Thanksgiving day. If we are that cold down here, then I would think that north Texas would be even colder. IMO, that currently looks like your best shot at a possible first freeze.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That sounds like the perfect kind of Turkey Day. It isn't all that far away so hopefully the models are seeing something.

The model prediction looks even better today. It is showing partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 38˚ at IAH (meaning even colder in Conroe), and an afternoon high in the 50s.

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't know about that ... usually La Nina winters have one or two dramatic cold events for us in Texas and they often happen early in winter (like December). Then the remainder of winter ends up being pretty warm and dry. We shall see.

You are correct, La Nina winters do tend to be warmer than normal, and yes I do believe we will see 2 maybe 3 very cold spells, that may last 3 to 4 days during this winter. But, that will not happen till the pacific NW see's it's shift to a below normal seasonal trend, and that wont start till around late December into early January. For now we can expect cool pacific fronts, but the colder of the fronts will be back door fronts from the NE, as they we see slightly below normal temps heading into late November and into early December.

[CaptinCrunch]

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the models, because the last few cool fronts that have made it in to texas didn't last that long. We are expecting a cool front here by tomorrow afternoon that will drop temps back down to seasonal (60's/40's) but it's only for 1 or 2 day period, then temps back in to the lower 70's for high's. Next front is forecast for Sunday night that may bring us back down to the mid 60's again, but only for another day or two.

NTX avg temp's for mid November are mid to upper 60's/40's, but we have been running on average of 77.5 for highs and 56.8 for lows. So far for the Month we have only had 2 days with highs in the 60's, (65 x2) the rest have been between 71 and 84, with our coldest reading of 48 also twice. We are 5 days away form our annual 1st freeze of the season, however I don't expect to see our first freeze till the first week of December if even then.

Texas winter wont start till late December (maybe) and run thru early Feburary, then it's back to a late fall like season with the back and forth temps.

I have a feeling that you will be shocked come later this month. I am willing to bet that you do see your first freeze before December 1st..and Houston might even see a freeze before then as well. I could be wrong, but if JB and the models are right, then I will not be. A pattern change does appear to be upcoming and I am definitely thrilled!

BTW, the 12z GFS was showing lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s for Houston on Thanksgiving day. If we are that cold down here, then I would think that north Texas would be even colder. IMO, that currently looks like your best shot at a possible first freeze.

I just dont buy into the models, as I have seen this exact same setup before. But then again there's Thanksgiving 1993....LOL, and we all remember that one dont we.....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the models, because the last few cool fronts that have made it in to texas didn't last that long. We are expecting a cool front here by tomorrow afternoon that will drop temps back down to seasonal (60's/40's) but it's only for 1 or 2 day period, then temps back in to the lower 70's for high's. Next front is forecast for Sunday night that may bring us back down to the mid 60's again, but only for another day or two.

NTX avg temp's for mid November are mid to upper 60's/40's, but we have been running on average of 77.5 for highs and 56.8 for lows. So far for the Month we have only had 2 days with highs in the 60's, (65 x2) the rest have been between 71 and 84, with our coldest reading of 48 also twice. We are 5 days away form our annual 1st freeze of the season, however I don't expect to see our first freeze till the first week of December if even then.

Texas winter wont start till late December (maybe) and run thru early Feburary, then it's back to a late fall like season with the back and forth temps.

I have a feeling that you will be shocked come later this month. I am willing to bet that you do see your first freeze before December 1st..and Houston might even see a freeze before then as well. I could be wrong, but if JB and the models are right, then I will not be. A pattern change does appear to be upcoming and I am definitely thrilled!

BTW, the 12z GFS was showing lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s for Houston on Thanksgiving day. If we are that cold down here, then I would think that north Texas would be even colder. IMO, that currently looks like your best shot at a possible first freeze.

I just dont buy into the models, as I have seen this exact same setup before. But then again there's Thanksgiving 1993....LOL, and we all remember that one dont we.....

Leon Lett remembers it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brr. The 18z GFS looks downright bitter for the end of next week...

Wednesday afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif
^^Very strong front racing into the area (with rains and breezes)^^

Around midnight (12am) Thanksgiving morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif
^^Very cold rain falling across Houston with sub-50˚ temperatures. Rain changes to snow and ice in parts of north and central TX as well as in the panhandle^^

Thanksgiving afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_216l.gif
^^VERY cold with rain, clouds and highs only in the 40s for Houston.^^

Around midnight (12am) Friday - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_228l.gif
^^Clouds starting to clear with temperatures falling into the 30s in Houston. Most of TX would experience a frost or freeze by sunrise Friday (except southern TX).^^

Friday afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_240l.gif
^^Another cold day with highs struggling to get above 50˚ in Houston^^

[gboudx]

Keep it coming EWG. I'm just hoping for a cool down with highs in the upper-50's/lower 60's. Putting up Christmas lights in shorts just ain't right.

[Portastorm]

OK folks, EWG is doing a good job of coaxing down this cold airmass for Thanksgiving weekend for us Texans. Model support this Wednesday morning looks good.

Here's the 0z GFS run at 240 hrs showing a nice, cool (at least 5-10 degrees below normal) airmass over the state:

[img][/img]

And the NCEP ensembles this morning are showing some definite below normal temps for Thanksgiving weekend for our part of the nation:

[img][/img]

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW is staying with high's in the mid 70's for Monday and Tuesday of next week. This is the last small port of the morning AFD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
FOR NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THANKSGIVING OR AFTER.

[Johnny]

Fomr Jeff!!


Thanksgiving Week:



Potential for large storm system to affect the central US Thanksgiving and the following weekend. Large scale long wave trough is forecast to develop over the W US early next week and transition into the plains Thanksgiving Day and the following weekend. Return to southerly flow will begin early next week behind the weekend system with above normal temps expected through Wednesday. Strong polar boundary associated with the developing trough will surge out of Canada and down the plains Tuesday and Wednesday likely arriving in TX on Thanksgiving. GFS has come in very cold with the post frontal air mass with highs only in the 40’s late Thanksgiving and the following several days as an intense overrunning/isentropic regime develops over the cold dome producing widespread clouds and rain in the cold air mass. Could very well be one of those powerful fronts where it is 75 in the morning and 45 in the afternoon…we shall see.

[double D]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_ten204240_m.shtml

The 12z is painting a winter storm for the panhandle and N. central Texas. Will it move further south or is the GFS just up to it's old tricks again?

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_ten204240_m.shtml

The 12z is painting a winter storm for the panhandle and N. central Texas. Will it move further south or is the GFS just up to it's old tricks again?

Looking at both those models NTX never gets to 32, and the bulk of the precip is over ETX while the 0 line (32 degrees)runs from Wichita falls to Abilene to El Paso on the 23rd, and only parts of the Panhandel to Lubbock to Odessa on the 24th.

so NO winter storm for NTX and only a chance of frozen precip for the Panhandle.