Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

[CrazyC83]

This would be considered a tropical storm now if it was sitting in the Atlantic.

[Chacor]

In case you missed it, we just described a few posts ago why this hasn't been named yet.

[Chacor]

We should have cyclone watches soon if this keeps up.

[hcane27]

[Squarethecircle]

We beat Debby by a whole month; hopefully not a precursor to events in the not too distant future. A repeat of last year could be disastrous. It appears that this will not be a threat, though I wouldn't know, since I can't find any of those pressure data maps.

[hcane27]

updated to include QLM model output

[HURAKAN]

Wrong basin!

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, that looks a lot better than it did this morning.

[HURAKAN]

[hcane27]

sorry .... fixed it in the proper thread

[Coredesat]

Brisbane likely won't upgrade until the system moves over water. Right now it's still over Papua New Guinea.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2005 UTC 13 November 2007

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low with central pressure 998 hPa was centred within 30
nautical miles of 11.2 S 147.2 E moving west at 10 knots. A 1020 hPa High in the
Tasman Sea extends a slowly weakening ridge along the Queensland coast.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
SE/NE winds 34/45 knots developing within 150 nautical miles of the centre in
the southern semicircle during the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas becoming very rough
to high with increasing swells.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 14 November: Within 45 nautical miles of 11.3 south 146.4 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
At 1800 UTC 14 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 11.6 south 146.3 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email
to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through
Land Earth Station Perth 222
Next warning issued by 131900 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

Any reports of flooding in southeastern Papua New Guinea?

[HURAKAN]

Lots of convection. Should be interesting once it moves completely over water.

[HURAKAN]

13/2030 UTC 11.2S 147.4E T3.0/3.0 02P -- South Pacific Ocean

[Squarethecircle]

Pretty nice T-numbers there... Everything looks fit to go, especially the curve away from land.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2013NOV20 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 12:01:30 S Lon : 147:42:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.1 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -59.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it was last year that Australia lost most of their banana crop to a cyclone in Queensland.