Derek Ortt wrote:even if this weakens to 85-100KT (which may be the final landfall intensity), that would still devastate Bangladesh. remember, the 1970 cyclone was the equivalent of a marginal 3 (and Texas and western Louisiana know how bad a marginal 3 is... just look back at Rita)
Actually, some estimates place it as high as 110 knots, however, the point is valid. Any slowing down or significant intensification of this system will cause enormous damage to Bangladesh. An interesting coincidence; today is the date of landfall for stated system, and the track, while heading straight north its entire life, was not to dissimilar from the track so far and the forecast track. Most likely the toll will be sizable, but a repeat of that event is unlikely; it hit in a very, very susceptible spot. While the eye is more ragged, the convection is flaring again, encircling the storm, and the eye seems to be in the perfect place to reform. When was the last time (if ever) in recorded history that a season was potentially as active as this one, at least in terms of number of depressions and strong storms?
