BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#281 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:52 am

Crostorm wrote:I hope I was not so boring with all that sattelite pictures :)


On the contrary,very good images from all the different prospectives of this potential destructive and catastrophic cyclone.
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1221
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Tokyo
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#282 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:59 am

It looks evil. Still little mention of it in the press at the moment but I have a horrible feeling this will be headline news in 48 hours time!
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#283 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 14, 2007 6:07 am

The BBC World Service has an active project in which they've hired a boat to travel Bangladesh, so they'll be on hand, first-hand, to experience this cyclone if they're not careful.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 50
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#284 Postby Crostorm » Wed Nov 14, 2007 6:31 am

Image
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#285 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:03 am

Sorry if anyone's offended, but Jesus Christ! At this rate it'll still be cat 3/4 by landfall...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#286 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:25 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#287 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:58 am

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 14-11-2007



TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. NINETEEN ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 14 NOVEMBER, 2007.



THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 15.50 N AND LONG 89.50 E, ABOUT 800 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA(42809 ). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST NEAR SAGAR ISLAND ( 42903 ) BY 16TH NOVEMBER 2007 MORNING.



ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA

THE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY: T5.0 RPT T5.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 90-100 KTS AROUND THE STROM CENTRE.



SEA: PHENOMENAL.



FORECAST: THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 09 KT. INTENSIFY T5.5 RPT T5.5 WITH WINDS OF 110 KT GUSTING TO 125 KTS NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE STORM AT 0900 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER 2007.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#288 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:00 am

Image
0 likes   

Squarethecircle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2165
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
Location: Fairfax, VA

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#289 Postby Squarethecircle » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:06 am

We will remember this storm for years, mark my words. Is it just me or is it intensifying?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#290 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:10 am

Image

06BSIDR.130kts-926mb
0 likes   

User avatar
badkhan
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 74
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 5:06 am
Location: Karachi

#291 Postby badkhan » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:13 am

I've emailed the only person i know in Bangladesh to be prepared and expect more than what the media is telling them, I've also pasted a link to this thread. :cry:
0 likes   

Coredesat

Re:

#292 Postby Coredesat » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:19 am

badkhan wrote:I've emailed the only person i know in Bangladesh to be prepared and expect more than what the media is telling them, I've also pasted a link to this thread. :cry:


Good idea. This is definitely not looking good. Hopefully your friend will be safe.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#293 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:21 am

BBC World Service boat has picked up on the cyclone. I expect that the BBC will be stepping up coverage of the storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 50
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#294 Postby Crostorm » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:27 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2007 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 15:42:01 N Lon : 89:17:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 910.8mb/129.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.6 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -31.8C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Bay of Bengal: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR 0709

#295 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:48 am

Image
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

#296 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Nov 14, 2007 9:00 am

It does look like Katrina.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 06B - Sidr models thread

#297 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 14, 2007 9:36 am

00Z ECMWF in 1/2 millibar increments. Landfall 00Z Friday in Bangladesh.

Image
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1221
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Tokyo
Contact:

#298 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Nov 14, 2007 9:49 am

JTWC now carrying Sidr at 130kts :(

Looks like Derek's comments from earlier are spot on. I just hope the authorities are evacuating everyone in low lying areas in the path of Sidr otherwise thousands are going to be killed.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#299 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Nov 14, 2007 10:00 am

we will be fortunate if th death toll is "only" in the thousands.

One difference between this cyclone and the 1991 cyclone, the 1991 hit east of the Ganges Delta in Chittagong. This one will likely place the delta in the RFQ

May see some weakening prior to landfall, but likely not below cat 2. 90-100KT is still a good estimate. Tidal surges could exceed 20-25 feet
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#300 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Nov 14, 2007 10:01 am

and if anyone is reading this from eastern India of Bangladesh DO NOT LISTEN TO THE IMD!!!
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests