BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[CrazyC83]

T-numbers:

SSD - T6.5 (supports 125 kt)
PGTW - T7.0 (supports 140 kt)
KNES - T6.0 (supports 115 kt)
CIMSS - T6.8 (supports 135 kt)

Intensity estimates:

IMD - 90 kt (3-min, 100 kt 1-min), 966mb
NRL - 130 kt, 926mb
CIMSS - 135 kt, 904mb

My guess: 140 kt, 909mb

[Derek Ortt]

if we go by the definition of what a super cyclonic storm is, this meets the definition, except to those at Incompetent Meteorological Department

[CrazyC83]

if we go by the definition of what a super cyclonic storm is, this meets the definition, except to those at Incompetent Meteorological Department

If their incompetence leads to a mega-catastrophe, there should be a global inquiry led by the WMO...

[btangy]

00Z ECMWF track showing a bend toward the E and a landfall just W of the Ganges Delta would be the absolute worst case scenario as it would send massive surge up the delta and flood much of the area shaded in red where the population density is >1000 persons/km^2. Given the right of track bias thus far, it's a scary thought.

[RobWalker]

Hey folks,

I'm a contributor to nowpublic.com, the online/citizen journalism news site. Basically anyone can register, post news and images and anyone else can add more media to their story.

Right now we're trying to cover Sidr as best we can before it makes landfall:

http://www.nowpublic.com/weather/powerf ... bangladesh

If you guys have any images, satellite, etc. that you think would help people understand where the storm is headed better, please feel free to add them to the link above. Also, if anyone is willing to explain in laymans terms what is happening with the storm, that would be great! I feel pretty out of my element here as I realize I know nothing about storms. You can also email me and I'd be happy to answer any questions.

Thanks,

Rob Walker
Content Manager
http://www.nowpublic.com/
rwalker@nowpublic.com

[btangy]

The eye continues to clear out and warm as evident by the Dvorak enhanced satellite loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 110700.jpg

Might see raw T numbers spike up above 7 during the next few fixes.

[Squarethecircle]

I hope the IMD loses its status for this... although the JTWC will never be RMSC... I'm guessing that this is 138-143 knots, between 903 and 911 hPa. It looks like a freaking monster. Has anyone seen the B&W convective?

[CrazyC83]

I hope the IMD loses its status for this... although the JTWC will never be RMSC... I'm guessing that this is 138-143 knots, between 903 and 911 hPa. It looks like a freaking monster. Has anyone seen the B&W convective?

I haven't seen that yet, but the NRL graphics shows a storm very similar to Katrina and Rita approaching peak intensity...the T-numbers often seem to be lower than the actual intensity when it comes to recent monsters (a possible exception being Cyclone Monica of 2006).

Even if this weakens to Cat 3 at landfall (my thinking), there could easily be a storm surge of 18-24 feet (locally up to 30 feet perhaps) going into the Ganges Delta...

[Squarethecircle]

That would really, really hurt. Actually, yeah, I just noticed that. The eye is emptying out of clouds and it seems to be nice and stable now. Convection is in a swirling circle, and the eye looks very circular as well. Everything about this storm points to "evil death monster."

[CrazyC83]

The most intense officially measured cyclone in the Bay of Bengal was Cyclone 05B of 1999, at 912mb (although that was a landfall intensity after weakening slightly so it was probably around 905mb in reality).

However, only recently have official estimates become available in the area, and the 1991 cyclone has unofficial estimates around 897mb. It is likely there have been other sub-900 storms in the Bay of Bengal as well.

[Coredesat]

if we go by the definition of what a super cyclonic storm is, this meets the definition, except to those at Incompetent Meteorological Department

I like this interpretation of the "IMD" acronym.

[Derek Ortt]

maybe for those updating on Wiki... change the wind speeds. This is not a 90KT storm

[WmE]

maybe for those updating on Wiki... change the wind speeds. This is not a 90KT storm

Derek, the IMD estimate is 90kts, and that's VERY conservative, but it's the official forecast of the RMSC, so it isn't going to be changed.

[Derek Ortt]

the 90KT is wrong. It does not matter how official something is when it is so clearly wrong

This is like the Brazilians saying that the hurricane was not a hurricane

As much as I detest going with the JTWC, it is closer to reality than IMD

[WmE]

the 90KT is wrong. It does not matter how official something is when it is so clearly wrong

This is like the Brazilians saying that the hurricane was not a hurricane

As much as I detest going with the JTWC, it is closer to reality than IMD

Well, both the IMD and JTWC estimates are given.

[CrazyC83]

maybe for those updating on Wiki... change the wind speeds. This is not a 90KT storm

Derek, the IMD estimate is 90kts, and that's VERY conservative, but it's the official forecast of the RMSC, so it isn't going to be changed.

That is why the JTWC number (130 kt - strong Cat 4) is also there, which is much closer to reality (it is really needed there since that is the only semi-official 1-min estimate available). The color-coding is based on the 130.

[HurricaneRobert]

That's ridiculous. IMD bulletins have no basis in reality "official" or not. That's why information on Wikipedia is usually wrong.

[Coredesat]

maybe for those updating on Wiki... change the wind speeds. This is not a 90KT storm

Derek, the IMD estimate is 90kts, and that's VERY conservative, but it's the official forecast of the RMSC, so it isn't going to be changed.

We've always provided both IMD and JTWC data. It's against Wikipedia policy to make up data. When an article is made, both the JTWC and IMD pressures will likely be listed.

I hate it too, but it's the way we have to do things.

[P.K.]

TPIO10 PGTW 141801

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIDR)

B. 14/1730Z

C. 16.6N/3

D. 89.3E/0

E. ONE/MET7

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/00HRS (14/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 20NM DG EYE SURR BY CMG
CONVECTIVE RING YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[P.K.]

I see the latest image has it as a T5.5 now when the last update only said T5.0 despite all the other estimates.