BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2007 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 16:41:01 N Lon : 89:13:08 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 901.2mb/137.4kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -33.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Squarethecircle]

Looks like we probably have a category five out there. I refuse to believe that both the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic had more category fives than the West Pacific.

[wxman57]

Check out the satellite picture of the 1970 cyclone that killed 300,000-500,000 people in Bangladesh. It's in about the same area as Sidr.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Bhola_cyclone

[wxman57]

Looks like we probably have a category five out there. I refuse to believe that both the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic had more category fives than the West Pacific.

If not for recon, many Atlantic hurricanes would not have been identified as Cat 5s.

[Squarethecircle]

Looks like we probably have a category five out there. I refuse to believe that both the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic had more category fives than the West Pacific.

If not for recon, many Atlantic hurricanes would not have been identified as Cat 5s.

... What are you saying?

[wxman57]

Looks like we probably have a category five out there. I refuse to believe that both the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic had more category fives than the West Pacific.

If not for recon, many Atlantic hurricanes would not have been identified as Cat 5s.

... What are you saying?

I'm saying that there is no recon to confirm Cat 5 strength in the Pacific. If not for recon in the Atlantic, the best track database would have listed many that are known to be Cat 5s as Cat 3 or 4 hurricanes. The various forecast offices are very reluctant to identify a Cat 5 without absolute proof, either from recon or a very high Dvorak number.

[HenkL]

Bangladesh used to have a website for their meteo office: http://bmd.gov.bd/
But can't be opened at the moment.

[Squarethecircle]

If not for recon, many Atlantic hurricanes would not have been identified as Cat 5s.

... What are you saying?

I'm saying that there is no recon to confirm Cat 5 strength in the Pacific. If not for recon in the Atlantic, the best track database would have listed many that are known to be Cat 5s as Cat 3 or 4 hurricanes. The various forecast offices are very reluctant to identify a Cat 5 without absolute proof, either from recon or a very high Dvorak number.

It's still a fairly moot point; the West Pacific is universally acknowledged to have more category fives. And the North Indian Ocean is one of the least active basins (if not THE least active basin) in the world.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like we probably have a category five out there. I refuse to believe that both the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic had more category fives than the West Pacific.

If not for recon, many Atlantic hurricanes would not have been identified as Cat 5s.

You'd think that the ASEAN nations, between them, would have enough money to post a couple of WC-130s, perhaps some in the RP, and a couple in Japan, to monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pac. I'm pretty sure the Japanese Air Self Defense Force flies C-130 Hercules.


About slow season in the Pac, I'd guess that the cooler waters of the cold cycle ENSO may have slowed the East and Central Pac season, no idea why activity was off in the NW Pac.

[Squarethecircle]

As I recall, the West Pacific season was predicted to be below average. It might have something to do with La Nina, although that wouldn't explain why the activity was low even before the La Nina took full effect.

[Cyclone1]

901mbar?!?! Holy geez... I'm sorry If this was intoduced a few pages ago, I've been gone all day. Ignore me. Still, isn't that approaching a record for the basin?

[Squarethecircle]

Within three hPa, yeah.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring 48nm movement between 1530Z and 1930Z. That's an average forward speed of 12 kts at a heading of 352 degrees in the past 4 hours. If it maintains that forward speed, then landfall would be near 19Z tomorrow, just 23.5 hours away from the center crossing the coast. 2-hr movement from 1730Z-1930Z was 13.2 kts.

[Derek Ortt]

it may even accelerate further as it approaches the coastline.

Unfortunately, this means a landfall in the dead of night, unlike Katrina that produced the 30 foot surge during the day.

Tomorrow will live in infamy, and not just weather infamy. Bangladesh will be set back tens of years within the next 18-24 hours. We need a miracle

[RL3AO]

Thats not a lot of time to weaken to the 80kt forecast.

[wxman57]

21Z Forecast has it at 115kts at landfall:

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIDR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.8N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.0N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.7N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.8N 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.3N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 89.2E.
012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (SIDR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH
OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TC 06B CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH-EASTERN INDIA AND THE DEEP SUB-
TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 06B. THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 7.0/7.0 FROM PGTW AT 141730Z AND
6.5/6.5 FROM KNES AT 141433Z AND A CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE INTE-
NSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS AT 141800Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR A LESS-PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THIS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE TRACK REASO-
NING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL IN WESTERN BANG-
LADESH NEAR TAU 36. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC is now going with 115KT at landfall

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIDR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.8N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.0N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.7N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.8N 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.3N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 89.2E.
012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (SIDR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH
OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TC 06B CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH-EASTERN INDIA AND THE DEEP SUB-
TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 06B. THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 7.0/7.0 FROM PGTW AT 141730Z AND
6.5/6.5 FROM KNES AT 141433Z AND A CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE INTE-
NSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS AT 141800Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR A LESS-PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THIS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE TRACK REASO-
NING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL IN WESTERN BANG-
LADESH NEAR TAU 36. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INDUCE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//

NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

looks like we posted at the same time

[RL3AO]

I hope the UN is ready. I'm sure the US Navy is on alert and I wonder if the US Gov't is preparing a rescue response?

[P.K.]

KNES also up to T7.0 now.

WWIO20 KNES 142127

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRNIGHT
.
NOVEMBER 14 2007 2030Z
.
17.2N 89.2E T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS SIDR (06B)
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.0N 89.4E 14/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
14.0N 89.4E 13/2030Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...PINHOLE OFF WHITE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR A DT=7.0
MET=6.5
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 15/0400Z.
.
EFFECTIVE 0000 UTC 01 DECEMBER 2007 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN
WILL CHANGE TO CONFORM WITH THAT FOUND IN TPPS10 PGTW. FOR
DETAILS SEE HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/NEWFORMAT.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
GLS