BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Squarethecircle]

Can we save the IMD bashing for after the storm and focus on the storm first?!

Best idea I've heard in at least an hour. Has anyone seen the recent convective? They're freaking AWESOME. It's just cool, man. I don't think there's any chance that shear can tear this storm apart even a little, and at the rate it's going, it'll run right through the cold temperatures.

[Derek Ortt]

it si getting hard to make a satellite estimate on this storm, as I have not seen many that are this perfect in terms of structure

[RL3AO]

[Coredesat]

Forgive me for saying the "a" word, but it seems Sidr is trying to become annular. That or the poleward outflow channel is starting to close up as the trough leaves it behind.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like some of the outermost bands are starting to come ashore.

Are there areas of Bangladesh below sea level? Some articles suggest there are (now that would be extremely bad)

[CrazyC83]

Forgive me for saying the "a" word, but it seems Sidr is trying to become annular. That or the poleward outflow channel is starting to close up as the trough leaves it behind.

Looks annular on satellite, but it isn't as there are well-defined bands inside the storm, per NRL graphics.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[RL3AO]

Signs of an second eyewall?

[CrazyC83]

Here's an eerie coincidence:

The New Orleans area is located at about 90°W longitude. The Ganges Delta of Bangladesh is located at about 90°E longitude - almost exactly 180 degrees around the world (although not at the same latitude).

[Coredesat]

Signs of an second eyewall?

That might be dry air, actually. I'll hold judgment until visibles come out.

[CrazyC83]

Signs of an second eyewall?

That might be dry air, actually. I'll hold judgment until visibles come out.

Either way I think this is at or near peak intensity.

[HurricaneRobert]

What time do we get visible satellite views back?

[RL3AO]

What time do we get visible satellite views back?

Within 60-90 minutes.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2007 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 17:39:29 N Lon : 89:17:42 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 898.0mb/140.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.0 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Notice the 7.3's - CIMSS thinks this may strengthen some more...

[WindRunner]

There was no intent of IMD-bashing in my previous post, it was only stating a possibility that was mentioned back during the discussions when 03B made second landfall earlier this year . . . but regardless, this is neither the time nor the place for such discussion.


As for that microwave picture, that is what the outer eyewall looked like about 36 hours in advance of it closing off last time, so I wouldn't be surprised if it were the very early stages of an ERC . . . early enough that it would have little effect on the intensity prior to landfall if it does prove to be an ERC.

[cycloneye]

First visible image.Still pretty dark,but you can see the eye.

[CrazyC83]

There was no intent of IMD-bashing in my previous post, it was only stating a possibility that was mentioned back during the discussions when 03B made second landfall earlier this year . . . but regardless, this is neither the time nor the place for such discussion.


As for that microwave picture, that is what the outer eyewall looked like about 36 hours in advance of it closing off last time, so I wouldn't be surprised if it were the very early stages of an ERC . . . early enough that it would have little effect on the intensity prior to landfall if it does prove to be an ERC.

It may weaken the storm enough wind-wise, but it would make no difference in terms of storm surge. Even if that is enough to bring this down to Cat 3, we are very well looking at a Cat 5 storm surge in probably the most vulnerable place on Earth.

[MiamiensisWx]

Look at the CIMSS visible image. Note the "spokes" (overshooting convective tops) around the core and eye. This indicates an intensification phase. We should see an impressive stadium effect.

[Ptarmigan]

it si getting hard to make a satellite estimate on this storm, as I have not seen many that are this perfect in terms of structure

I've said this before, we need to actually fly into tropical cyclones, preferably a UAV will do.

[WindRunner]

it si getting hard to make a satellite estimate on this storm, as I have not seen many that are this perfect in terms of structure

I've said this before, we need to actually fly into tropical cyclones, preferably a UAV will do.

Storms like this, especially in the IO, are so rare that having a crew stationed there would be considered a waste of funds . . . though I won't argue that it would be nice.

[wxmann_91]

First visible out. Click for larger image.