BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Squarethecircle]

Bhola was 130, actually. But still, winds don't matter, it's the fact that the storm surge will be enormous. I'm betting the JTWC will upgrade to category five by morn, but I will not know because I'm must leave soon . Would someone mind PMing me about it?

[Ptarmigan]

It's still a fairly moot point; the West Pacific is universally acknowledged to have more category fives. And the North Indian Ocean is one of the least active basins (if not THE least active basin) in the world.

I used a statistical software and punched in data for North Indian Ocean and preliminary results show that it is more active in La Nina years.

[Ptarmigan]

Bhola was 130, actually. But still, winds don't matter, it's the fact that the storm surge will be enormous. I'm betting the JTWC will upgrade to category five by morn, but I will not know because I'm must leave soon . Would someone mind PMing me about it?

Hurricane Katrina showed that large storm surge can come from weakening hurricanes, in this case a monsterous one.

[Ptarmigan]

Check out the satellite picture of the 1970 cyclone that killed 300,000-500,000 people in Bangladesh. It's in about the same area as Sidr.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Bhola_cyclone

I wrote a little article about the Bhola Cyclone.

Bhola Cyclone

[jaxfladude]

PRAYERS

[Squarethecircle]

It's still a fairly moot point; the West Pacific is universally acknowledged to have more category fives. And the North Indian Ocean is one of the least active basins (if not THE least active basin) in the world.

I used a statistical software and punched in data for North Indian Ocean and preliminary results show that it is more active in La Nina years.

What does that have to do with what I'm talking about? Though that may explain why this kind of storm formed again; during a fairly strong La Nina pattern.

[Ptarmigan]

What does that have to do with what I'm talking about? Though that may explain why this kind of storm formed again; during a fairly strong La Nina pattern.

The North Indian Ocean has not been well studied, so I decided to take some time and look at what climatological factors play a role in that area. No one has done ACEs for that area and I did do that as well.

[WindRunner]

Looking good . . . though it does appear to be a little smushed to the north . . . glad to see there are some westerlies awaiting it, even if they are post-landfall.

[WindRunner]

CNN finally has an article, though it's only the second story in the World section . . . http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/1 ... index.html

On the other hand, they do at least list it with 134mph sustained winds, according to the indescript "authorities."

EDIT: and still nothing from the rest of the U.S. media . . .

[wxman57]

I did some checking on tides in Bangladesh. Found a great web site with a tide calculation for Chittagong, near the mouth of the Ganges River:

http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/1231.html

Here's the tidal chart for the area. I figure landfall will be near 21Z tomorrow. They're exactly 12 hours ahead of CST, so that's around 3am Friday (21Z Thu). The tide chart says tides about 3 meters above MSL around that time - near high tide:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have family living in Western India near the border
to Bangladesh and I have been there many times.
Though the family members are inland from the coast I will PRAY for everyone in the
path of this storm. This is NOT good. I have been there, the buildings
are very poorly constructed sometimes just thin metal sheets and very
thin metal pieces as large walls it is NOT a good situation.
This is just horrific. What I saw there in the buildings cannot hold
up.

[Derek Ortt]

don't you mean 3 a.m. Friday?

[Crostorm]

Great danger signal 10 for Mongla, 9 for Ctg as hurricane approaches: Massive evacuation ordered in coast line

http://www.bangladesh-web.com/view.php?hidRecord=177458

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This storm is making me sick to my stomach
Derek or anyone is there ANY hope of significant weakening
I am very worried about family and friends in the threat area
Derek said could get 15 ft surge

most family is inland but some may be not very elevated from
the coast so if there is a surge that would be very bad.

[wxman57]

don't you mean 3 a.m. Friday?

Yep, thanks, fixed it. What a scary night for those people.

[WindRunner]

Looking back, it seems like the RSMC advisory for 18z was never posted (actually, looking at it, it seems it was only transmitted two hours ago). IMD did go 100kts, FWIW at this point . . .


FKIN20 VIDP 150030

DTG : 20071114/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : SIDR
NR : 12

PSN : N1630 E08900
MOV : N09KT
C : 956HPA
MAX WIND:100KT GUSTING TO 110KT

FCST PSN+12HRS: 150600 N1900 E08900
MAX WIND+12HRS:110KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 151200 N2000 E08900
MAX WIND+18HRS:115KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 151800 N2100 E08900
MAX WIND+24HRS: 115KT

NEXT MSG: 20071115/0000Z

TOO : 15/0500 HRS IST.

[CrazyC83]

IMD has it strengthening right up to landfall...

[MiamiensisWx]

This storm is making me sick to my stomach
Derek or anyone is there ANY hope of significant weakening
I am very worried about family and friends in the threat area
Derek said could get 15 ft surge

most family is inland but some may be not very elevated from
the coast so if there is a surge that would be very bad.

The geographical region is much worse than the Gulf coast in terms of surge. Obviously, Katrina weakened from its peak; it still produced a peak surge near ~28-30 feet. Sidr must weaken to a TD or TS. You need a smaller RMW and wind field in order to reduce potential damage, so it may not help if Sidr weakens to a Category 1 TC. Hopefully, it will make landfall at low tide. The RMW should remain narrow, too. You need a smaller wind radii (>34 kt radius) in order to minimize surge and damages.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks miami

only thing we can do is pray
and I hope to God that some miracle stops this surge
from coming there

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see a weakening below a cat 3. If this does weaken to a 3 as I suspect it will, the wind field likely will expand, making this potentially even worse

ANY DEVIATION TO THE WEST WILL BRING 30 FEET OF TIDAL SURGE INTO INDIA, INCLUDING UP THE RIVERS NEAR CALCUTTA