BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Derek Ortt]

its about to make landfall, has really accelerated

cat 2 winds likely for Dhaka

[Derecho]

Quite a bit of modeling really stank for this storm - EC was pretty good, NGP sort of ok, but a lot of other models were too far west, or showed an extended stall in the N BoB. Most never remotely depicted the strengthening.

[Coredesat]

The eye has filled in, so I would imagine Sidr is now weakening. However, an estimate of 125-130 kt is probably not far off.

I would expect landfall in the next 3-6 hours.

[wxman57]

its about to make landfall, has really accelerated

cat 2 winds likely for Dhaka

I'm measuring 30nm from the coast on the 1130Z satellite. It moved 40nm in the past 2 hours (20 kts). That means as of 15 minutes ago the center was about 10 miles from the coast. As of right now (7:45am CST), the center is about 5 miles from the coast. Landfall will be in the next 15 minutes, or 8pm BDT.

[Cyclenall]

I was right, it was going to make landfall much sooner then first thought. I knew it looked way to close to the coast.

It still looks like the inner core is "heathly" with some weakening and it appears the North-East quad is getting shear. I can't imagine what's occuring along the coast now.

[wxman57]

Quite a bit of modeling really stank for this storm - EC was pretty good, NGP sort of ok, but a lot of other models were too far west, or showed an extended stall in the N BoB. Most never remotely depicted the strengthening.

NOGAPS was actually closest with the timing, and it wasn't far off with the point of landfall. NOGAPS consistently forecast landfall near 12 Z today, and landfall will be 13Z. Most other models were 8-12 hours later.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Winds (well, duh, I guess) in excess of 90 knots around eye.

[Crostorm]

[wxman57]

I estimate that the center has crossed the coast about 15 miles inside the Bangladesh border (near 21.7N/89.3E). Probably a Cat 3-4 at landfall. Eye definitely more ragged. TS-force winds will likely just brush the port of Chittagong, but one entrance of the Ganges River is just 90 miles east of the point of landfall. That's as far east as Pascagoula was from Katrina's center. Sidr, though, isn't nearly as large as Katrina. Still, there could be a surge of from 9-15 feet moving up the Ganges River into Dhaka right now.

[btangy]

Been browsing through the SSMI and WINDSAT microwave overpasses, and it actually appears that Sidr was going through an eyewall replacement cycle right before landfall. Bad news as this spreads out the wind field with the secondary radius of maximum winds.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/I ... E.77pc.jpg

[Sanibel]

Storm peaked at 155mph. I doubt the weakening has meant much. The disaster is happening right now. Sidr hooked right slightly as some were predicting here last night. The worst surge will be right into the main mouth of the Ganges by Tetulbaria and Barguna.

A massive surge is inundating the low-lying delta region as we type. Must be at least 25 feet maybe more.

[HURAKAN]

Right before landfall.

[btangy]

Given that the original predicted track was closer to the India/Bangladesh border, I certainly hope those that were making decisions didn't let their guard down about evacuating people from the Ganges Delta region. The W portion of the Delta, especially, looks like it will have the greatest surge and wind damage.

[fromBd]

Here in Chittagong city the weather is still quite, with not much of wind and sporadic rain like the monsoons. Hard to believe,devastation is going on around 150 miles away.
My family has gone out to attend a wedding ceremony.

[Sanibel]

Joint Typhoon nailed it. They were just a hair west. (The black line)

[Coredesat]

The eyewall seems to be collapsing quite rapidly - the eye is now limited to a small pinpoint in the center of the convective core:



However, this pinpoint is just off the coast, so I would expect landfall in the next hour or so. It also seems even further east than it looked this morning - the system may have begun a turn toward the NE. The convection is elongated, which would probably support that hypothesis (the westerlies are probably affecting it more now). This might be that turn we didn't want to see happen.

[wxman57]

Here in Chittagong city the weather is still quite, with not much of wind and sporadic rain like the monsoons. Hard to believe,devastation is going on around 150 miles away.
My family has gone out to attend a wedding ceremony.

The center won't get much closer to you than it is now, fromBd. I measure it at just over 150 miles to your west.

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like landfall is occurring about 30 miles inside of Bangladesh (though I do not have GARP imagery to confirm. This would mean the surge could be a little higher than the 9-15 feet moving up the Ganges into Dhaka (maybe 15-20 feet)

I'd estimate the landfall intensity at 110-115KT

[wxman57]

The eyewall seems to be collapsing quite rapidly - the eye is now limited to a small pinpoint in the center of the convective core:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/IO/06B.SIDR/ir/geo/1km/20071115.1430.meteo7.x.ir1km.06BSIDR.130kts-926mb-209N-895E.100pc.jpg

However, this pinpoint is just off the coast, so I would expect landfall in the next hour or so. It also seems even further east than it looked this morning - the system may have begun a turn toward the NE. The convection is elongated, which would probably support that hypothesis (the westerlies are probably affecting it more now).

I'm looking at a more zoomed-in satellite in GARP. My 1330Z image has that pinpoint inland, and that's about 1 1/2 hours ago.

[tolakram]

MIMIC appears to show landfall and either weakening or an ERC just before landfall.