BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[dtrain44]

Frombd, thanks for the update. Keep us posted and welcome to S2K!

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Here's a screen shot showing landfall around 1330Z. Crosshairs represent the center:

[Derek Ortt]

has also definitively turned to the NNE, meaning the eye should pass very enar Dhaka in the coming hours. Wind gusts over 100 mph quite possible

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

Excellent loop of the last 12 hours before landfall.

[btangy]

That's a pretty big difference between the landfall location I'm inferring from the NRL's and CIRA's satellite imagery and the image above.

[Sanibel]

The IR shot makes it appear that the main surface eye was further west than what the satellite was showing. Eye could be tilted east. IR shot puts landfall further west just east of Indian border. Worst surge up the Pusur River.


IR makes clear core center is still formidable.

[Sanibel]

The red arrow was for the expected landfall later today.

[wxman57]

has also definitively turned to the NNE, meaning the eye should pass very enar Dhaka in the coming hours. Wind gusts over 100 mph quite possible

I estimate that the center is inland about 125 miles SW of Dhaka as of 1530Z. Assuming its current motion will continue, the center should pass about 40-50 miles west of Dhaka in 4 more hours. Dhaka is about 160 miles from the point of landfall. To put that in perspective, Jackson, MS is about 160 miles inland from Katrina's point of landfall. But Jackson doesn't have the Ganges river running right next to it with an entrance 80 miles from the point of landfall.

[Sanibel]

Edit

[wxman57]

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/tides.gif

The red arrow was for the expected landfall later today.

Edit: (Shoot) Subtract 11 hours from that and it landfell at the peak of high tide.

You were right the first time. The graphic is in Bangladesh time. 3PM = 21Z. Landfall was closer to 14Z, or 8PM on the graphic - about 7 hours to the left of the red line. It hit in the green area - ebb tide, near the tidal minimum.

[Derek Ortt]

the previous high tide could have been trapped though as the winds started to increase. That happened to the Cape Fear area during Fran, despite Fran striking at dead low tide. Didn't help the coast at all

[Sanibel]

Sorry about that. I thought the "0213z" at the top was the landfall time prediction. It was the local time at the time of the post.

So the tide was half way down to low tide on the way down. Middle or even tide on the ebb.

[wxman57]

Here's the web page with tides (at Chittagong). Note the crosshairs on the curve in the green area representing the current time. Tides west of Chittagong were probably similar but the timing would be slightly off (later, I think).

http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/1231.html

[Sanibel]

So it landfell just below even tide on the ebb. That should keep the worst surges from happening and maybe mean 15 foot instead of 20. But that is all speculation and if the 40 foot flood tide surge of 130mph Bhola is the example then we could still be talking 25 feet since Sidr is much stronger. This would all be approximate though.


The graphic above says it landfell with a Vortmax near 125KTs. Somewhere near 145mph.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, looks like a Cat 4 at landfall. I'd say 120 kt myself.

[Frank2]

My family and I were already in South Florida when the November, 1970 disaster took place - let's pray the same does not happen this time...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Bhola_cyclone

[Sanibel]

Although that satellite image is still out in the bay, you can see Sidr had much better structure than Bhola.

[Sanibel]

[Frank2]

Yes, and the photo was probably taken by a polar-orbiting satellite (which meant just a small number of photos per day)...

Communication in that area was probably very poor in 1970 (except for ham radio) - hard to imagine, but, at that time, Miami only had Channels 2, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 17 during the daytime - and of those few, only one or two were on the air between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m.

If there wasn't anything on - well, my Mom would suggest we read a book (unimaginable today)...

I'll have to check with my ham folks to see if they've heard anything - perhaps the amateur radio station at the NHC (WX4NHC) is up and running during this time...