BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[wxman57]

Here's a bit more zoomed-in image valid 1930Z. I indicated the location of Dhaka as well as where I think the center of Sidr is as of 1930Z. Looks like about 35-40 miles west of Dhaka. Clearly, Sidr is weakening rapidly over land. The center looks to be near the western edge of the heavier convection now.

[Sanibel]

The upper CDO was obviously displaced further east by shear than the surface eye.

[Sanibel]

An official in Barisal, 120 kilometres south of Dhaka, spoke of severe destruction.

“Many trees have been uprooted and houses and schools blown away. There are no reports of deaths so far. We can not get out to get much information because of the severe storm,” Mostofa Kamal, a district relief and rehabilitation officer, told AFP by telephone.

“The houses are made of only tin, bamboo and straw, which cannot withstand storms,” explained Mohammad Monjur-e-Elahi, another Bangladeshi district administrator.

[Derek Ortt]

not before landfall it was not decoupled

[Sanibel]

I totally agree Derek. The landfall IR shows a solid deadly core still intact.

[CrazyC83]

Still a Cat 3 at 1800Z according to the JTWC (105 kt).

WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 90.3E

[P.K.]

DEMS-RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI DATED 16-11-2007

TROPCAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. THIRTY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC
OF 15 NOVEMBER, 2007.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSSED WEST BANGLADESH COAST NEAR LONGITUDE 89.80 E AROUND 1700 UTC OF THE 15TH NOVEMBER 2007 AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER OVER BANGLADESH NEAR LAT. 22.50 N AND LONG 90.50 E, ABOUT 100 KM SOUTH OF DHAKA. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980hPa.

THE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM

*****

----

BOB 09/2007/34 Dated: 16 November 2007


Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (SIDR) Crossed Bangladesh coast.


The very severe cyclonic storm “SIDR” over North Bay of Bengal moved

northeastwards and crossed west Bangladesh coast near longitude 89.80 E around

2230 hrs IST of the 15th November 2007 and lay centred at 2330 Hrs IST of 15th November

over Bangladesh near Lat. 22.50 N and Long 90.50 E, about 100 km south of Dhaka.

The system is likely to move in a north-northeasterly direction and weaken gradually.



Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at many places with isolated heavy

falls are likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours.



Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph are likely along and off West Bengal

and north Orissa coasts during next 12 hours.



Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen of the above areas are

advised not to venture into the sea.


Rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a

few places and isolated extremely heavy falls accompanied by gale wind

speed reaching 60-90 kmph are likely over districts of Tripura, Mizoram,

Manipur, south Assam and Meghalaya during next 24 hours.

[alan1961]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid ... 097056.stm?

[wxman57]

That 18Z position on the advisory looks to be quite far from where satellite indicates the center was at 18Z. I'd estimate the 18Z location closer to 22.9N/89.8W, which is about 42NM northwest of that estimate. The center is clearly visible on satellite there.

Edited: As I compare the two satellite images (ours and the ones on Monterey), there's clearly a difference in the lat/lon grids. I don't know which grid is right. If ours is off and Monterey's is right, then this was a much worse hit than it appeared (on our satellite loops).

[EyELeSs1]

That 18Z position on the advisory looks to be quite far from where satellite indicates the center was at 18Z. I'd estimate the 18Z location closer to 22.9N/89.8W, which is about 42NM northwest of that estimate. The center is clearly visible on satellite there.

Edited: As I compare the two satellite images (ours and the ones on Monterey), there's clearly a difference in the lat/lon grids. I don't know which grid is right. If ours is off and Monterey's is right, then this was a much worse hit than it appeared (on our satellite loops).

This is exactly what i noticed earlier today. The image you posted where Sidr made landfall was clearly way west of where NRL imagery had it. Also, just to note, The JTW track had it making landfall much further east than where you stated.... probably making the impact much worse

[HurricaneBill]

Deaths have been reported.

13 die as boats sink in Padma

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it is a Cat 1 right now over NE Bangladesh. IMO, its peak intensity (my guess) was 145 kt/901mb (at about 0300Z/15) and its landfall intensity was 120 kt/914mb.

[Coredesat]

Sidr looks almost as if it were becoming extratropical. The center is becoming exposed and there is a trailing trough-like band extending southward.

[Squarethecircle]

Deaths have been reported.

13 die as boats sink in Padma

In a few days, when reports begin coming in, this boat will be nothing but a sign of much greater things to come.

[Ptarmigan]

Here's a bit more zoomed-in image valid 1930Z. I indicated the location of Dhaka as well as where I think the center of Sidr is as of 1930Z. Looks like about 35-40 miles west of Dhaka. Clearly, Sidr is weakening rapidly over land. The center looks to be near the western edge of the heavier convection now.

Dhaka is a large city with over 3 million people. Hopefully they are prepared.

[HURAKAN]

Dhaka is a large city with over 3 million people. Hopefully they are prepared.

Dhaka:

City: 6,724,976 Metro: 11,918,442

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhaka

Interestingly, there are more people in Dhaka's metropolitan area than in the entire island of Cuba.

[Ptarmigan]

Dhaka:

City: 6,724,976 Metro: 11,918,442

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhaka

Interestingly, there are more people in Dhaka's metropolitan area than in the entire island of Cuba.

Hopefully, they are all safe. Dhaka is a large city. I saw it on TV and it's crowded. Bangladesh is very crowded and is the size of Wisconsin.

[HURAKAN]

Bangladesh is very crowded and is the size of Wisconsin.

Try Iowa.

Iowa: 145,743 km²

Bangladesh: 144,000 km²

What is happening is tragic anyway you see it.

[kd_black]

Looks like the storm is moving away.
[URL=http://imageshack.us][/

[Sanibel]

Right turn into Assam. Daylight now with storm subsiding in damage areas.

Orographic lift deluge in Assam.