Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

[Squarethecircle]

This is interesting... The eye is looking very deformed right now; almost as if it was simply a hole in the convection and nothing more.

[P.K.]

Still a mid cat 3 with the forecast calling for it to just be short of a cat 4 in 48 hours.

AXAU21 ABRF 161253
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1252 UTC 16/11/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Guba
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.5S
Longitude: 146.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [147 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 11.7S 146.9E: 035 [065]: 075 [140]: 970
+24: 17/1200: 12.1S 146.7E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 968
+36: 18/0000: 12.3S 146.2E: 070 [130]: 080 [150]: 968
+48: 18/1200: 12.5S 146.1E: 100 [185]: 085 [155]: 965
+60: 19/0000: 12.7S 145.7E: 120 [220]: 085 [155]: 965
+72: 19/1200: 12.5S 145.2E: 140 [260]: 085 [155]: 965
REMARKS:
System has continued to intensify during the past 12 hours and is now featuring
a well defined eye feature with additional tight banding. Remains a small though
intense system. Dvorak analysis is based on eye pattern. The system is slow
moving and should remain in the current favourable environment. The most
significant limitation to further development are the marginal SSTs [27.5C].
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC catching up.

[Sanibel]

Turning towards Queensland. Expected to increase to 95KTS.

[Squarethecircle]

Eye collapsed, but it seems like it's still hurricane strength regardless.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Looking less organized.

[Squarethecircle]

I'd say it's 55 knots right about now, but it might re-intensify; who knows?

[WindRunner]

I'd say it's 55 knots right about now, but it might re-intensify; who knows?

If it were strengthening, yeah, 55kts would be about right . . . but, if anything, this is most likely weakening, which means it's probably hovering right around the border of TS/SS-Cat 1 for now.


Of course, it would be nice to know why all that convection died off the the past few hours - no reason I can find looking at SST, shear, or upper wind analyses.
It is nice that a small core of convection remains, but it's hardly healthy-looking right now. It's pulled itself together from this unhealthy of an appearance once before, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again.

[Squarethecircle]

I said 55 knots because it seemed to be very rapidly weakening to me, storms that drop for no reason tend to drop like rocks. 95 knots might be overestimating things; I'd say more like 80-90 knots if this trend discontinues in the not-too-distant future.

[Squarethecircle]

Looking better now...

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:04am on Saturday the 17th of November 2007

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 3 with central pressure 970
hectopascals was centred near latitude 11.6 south and longitude 146.9 east which
is 400 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River and 465 kilometres north
northeast of Cooktown.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba is expected to continue to drift slowly southward
over the weekend. Gales are not expected to affect the Queensland coast within
24 hours, however gales may develop in coastal areas between Lockhart River and
Cape Tribulation late on Sunday.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 3, for 4:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 970 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 46 kilometres of
: latitude 11.6 degrees south
: longitude 146.9 degrees east
: which is 400 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River
: and 465 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown
Recent Movement : south at 5 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 75 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 175 kilometres per hour

People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Squarethecircle]

Do we have any recent wind estimates? Like, from anybody at all?

[HURAKAN]

Continues to weaken or at least, looking worse.

[CrazyC83]

It is rapidly weakening, that is for sure...

[HURAKAN]

POOF!

[P.K.]

Down to a cat 2.

XAU21 ABRF 171223
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1223 UTC 17/11/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Guba
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 147.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [177 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0000: 12.5S 146.7E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 987
+24: 18/1200: 12.6S 146.2E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 19/0000: 12.1S 146.4E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 997
+48: 19/1200: 10.3S 147.3E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 20/0000: 9.4S 148.1E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 20/1200: 7.2S 149.0E: 150 [280]: 020 [035]: 1003
REMARKS:
Guba remains a very small system and continues moving slowly. The cloud
signature has continued to show signs of weakening in the last 12 hours .
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[Squarethecircle]

55 knots from JTWC, remains at that until the end of the forecast. It seems, though, that it would be more likely for it to weaken some more.

[Sanibel]

Probably lost environmental support. - Like SST's not able to overcome atmospheric unfavorability. It has good coverage in those inflow areas. See if it rebounds.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:31 pm EST on Saturday the 17th of November 2007

At 10 pm EST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 2] with central pressure
975 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 11.9 south, longitude 147.5
east, which is about 450 km east northeast of Lockhart River and 590 km east
southeast of Thursday Island.

The cyclone has moved southwards in the last 12 hours but is expected to turn
towards the west and continue moving slowly. The cyclone is has shown
considerable signs of weakening in the last 24 hours and this trend is likely to
continue in the next 24 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Saturday