Cold Turkey Day for Texas?

[double D]

If you remember during the January snow/sleet event for central Texas, the GFS showed post frontal precip, abandoned it, and showed the precip again two days from the event. So who knows, this might be another case where we will have to wait to see exactly what will happen.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

As has been pointed out by pro mets many times over, from now till the actually arrival of the front, their will be alot of flip flopping with the models. JB pointed out that their is just too much on the plate for the models to handle. I would not rule out dramatic temperatures just yet. More flip flops on the way!!

I think the GFS ran for President in 2004.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW afternoon AFD

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER STORY IS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN CONTINUES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STEADY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BLUSTERY NORTH
WIND. EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS THIS WEEK HAD A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MODELS ARE NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MUCH LESS POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND THE SEASONS
FIRST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ALL THIS DEPENDS
ON CLOUDS/WINDS AND THIS IS A WEEK AWAY SO LOTS CAN CHANGE.

[amawea]

Man oh man. Did this thread die with the gfs or what?

[double D]

Yeah, I'm not sure where everyone went. It is still looking pretty chilly for Thanksgivng, but the weekend looks the most interesting. The GFS sends out a shortwave over Texas and at the same time should have a second surge of cold air. Right now it looks like west Texas could see some snow and ice. I think this is something to watch for sure.

[Portastorm]

I don't think this thread has died ... we're just kinda watching the models go back and forth as we get closer to the holiday weekend. As Double D pointed out, this morning's 0z GFS paints a colder/wetter picture than Friday's runs.

Looking at today's 0z GFS at 168 hrs, you can see the cold air plunging south into Texas with a surface low out to the west moving eastbound:



At 180 hrs, the surface low continues dipping southeast into Mexico and overspreading the cold airmass with moisture. This looks like it might provide some ice/snow to portions of west and southwest Texas:



At 216 hrs, the low appears to be cutting off into southwest Texas ... while the cold air retreats some ... no doubt this would create more icy conditions for portions of Texas probably west of I-35:



******************

All in all, a fairly cold and eventful scenario being painted by the 0z GFS. I suspect further runs may back of on the severity as we have seen in recent days. One thing is for sure, we have a cold airmass we can bank on for Thanksgiving weekend. How cold is the question!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS looks even colder and wetter. It is showing the potential of multiple sub-50 days across a good portion of TX with cloudy skies, cold rain, breezy winds and even a chance of wintry precipitation in parts of north and west TX.

update: I just looked at the numbers in more detail and the 12z GFS actually tries to keep Houston at or below 40˚ for Friday and Saturday! That would be insane! If we saw highs in the 30s or lower 40s, then tying or breaking some of our low max records would be a real possibility.

[southerngale]

♫ I'm dreaming of a cold Thanksgiving... just like the ones I used to know... ♫ ... where the treetops glisten... Leon Lett should listen... ♫ ... don't try to pick up that ball because you'll just fall... ♫

[PTrackerLA]

A cold Thanksgiving would be great! Seems like it's been so warm the past few years.

[TexasStooge]

A cold Thanksgiving would be great! Seems like it's been so warm the past few years.

Well, many of us Texans may get that wish, especially those who are living in the Dallas/Fort Worth area who mar be near freezing temperatures on the nights before and after Thanksgiving without experiencing anything icy. Sure we may have a thunderstorm or 2, but the lows will not be freezing. A few cities in the panhandle, however, may have some slick and icy roads.

AMARILLO
Wednesday: 40°F | 25°F

DALHART
Tuesday Night: 28°F
Wednesday: 39°F | 23°F

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see some winter weather up there in Dallas. The models continue to show it, but the NWS seems like they are just being conservative with their forecasting right now. Over the next few days, if the models keep up their current look, I fully expect a wintry mix forecast to be issued for many areas of north TX and possibly into central TX as well.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... hr168hr180

[double D]

I don't know about any winter precip for next weekend, but the 12z GFS sure shows us under the big chill for a while. The GFS wants to keep the flow from the north with reinforcing shots of cold air through the end of the month. Things sure look chilly

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know about any winter precip for next weekend, but the 12z GFS sure shows us under the big chill for a while. The GFS wants to keep the flow from the north with reinforcing shots of cold air through the end of the month. Things sure look chilly

yeah, it certainly does. In fact, the GFS keeps the cold shots coming straight into early December with quite a few frost and freeze threats and possible winter precipitation scares through the period.

Time to break out those winter coats!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Take a look at the CPC outlook for the next 2 weeks..

6-10 day temps
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... .small.gif

6-10 day precip
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... .small.gif

8-14 day temps
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... .small.gif

8-14 day precip
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... .small.gif

[double D]

The CPC better hope that it warms up quickly in December and stays warm for the rest of the month or their warm outlook may be in jeopardy.

Btw, I wouldn't be suprised during this cold stretch that somewhere in central or even southeast Texas doesn't see some type of winter precipation.

[KatDaddy]

Nothing will compare to the S TX Christmas Eve snowstorm. That was a very magical event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CPC better hope that it warms up quickly in December and stays warm for the rest of the month or their warm outlook may be in jeopardy.

Btw, I wouldn't be suprised during this cold stretch that somewhere in central or even southeast Texas doesn't see some type of winter precipation.

I agree. As snow-pack builds to our north behind each cold shot and as the days continue to get shorter, I think we will eventually find ourselves in a scenario that may be favorable for a winter precipitation event in central and/or SE Texas, likely sometime in early December.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the 18z GFS run continues to show another powerful cold blast around the 27th/28th. In fact, by Wednesday the 28th it is showing highs here in Houston stuck in the 30s with clouds, rain and wind! This is still a good 9-10 days out though, so it is subject to major changes. Definitely looking interesting right now though..

[gboudx]

DFW NWS hinting at the possibility....

LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES DOWN THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. MODELS STILL EJECT THIS SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION
REMAINS IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOW POPS AREAWIDE. HOWEVER...A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE FROM THE FRONT. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

[wall_cloud]

this airmass is definitely coming from a cold source region where surface daytime temps are ranging from below zero to near 20 degrees. However, my main concern is the of snowfall across the Plains. The sun angle still has a month to diminish further and this airmass will be able to modify quite a bit. I do think that once it starts rolling south it won't stop until it hits the gulf based on the progs of persistent deep northerly flow embedded in the high amplitude pattern and the fact that this airmass will be quite heavy. Precip doesn't look all that good with the first shortwave unless you live north of the southern plains, but the southwest cutoff low it interesting closer to the weekend (or later).