SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression Three (ex-BONGWE)

[Chacor]

Next possible storm. It'd get the B name if it develops, since Lee's about to get the A name.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[CrazyC83]

Next name is Bongwe.

[Squarethecircle]

WTXS21 PGTW 172230
ALERT ATCF MIL 98X XXX 071117180000
2007111718
-6.3 75.6
-999.9-999.9
160
-6.3 75.6
172230
0711172221
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 6.3S 75.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 75.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182230Z.
//
9807111700 58S 765E 15
9807111706 59S 762E 20
9807111712 60S 759E 25
9807111718 63S 756E 25
NNNN




Now under a TCFA from the JTWC; listed as (of course) a 'Good.'

[HURAKAN]

17/2030 UTC 5.9S 75.0E T2.0/2.0 98S -- South Indian Ocean

Continues to become better organize.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

It's in a Fujiwhara with Ariel, which is causing Ariel to weaken.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

18/0230 UTC 7.1S 75.0E T2.5/2.5 98S -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1S 76.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM KNES AND PGTW
AND A 180600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDI-
CATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S HAVE
REACHED 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 180530Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND TAU 36 AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAIL-
ABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONG INTERACTION BETWEEN
TC 04S AND TC 03S TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT SEPARA-
TION DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES IS ABOUT 700 NM AND EXPECTED
TO DECREASE, BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
TIME AND THE EFFECT OF A WEAKER TC 03S ON THE TRACK OF TC 04S
THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE OVER-EMPHASIZED IN THE CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS. NOGAPS DEPICTS A CLEAR SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO
CIRCULATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALSO DEPICTS
TC 04S AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 172221Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 172230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[P.K.]

WTIO20 FMEE 181235
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/11/2007
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/11/2007 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.3S / 75.5E
(EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-ARIEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH SEAS, REACHING NEAR GALE
FORCE
WINDS 30KT LOCALLY.
STROG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/11/19 AT 00 UTC:
9.4S / 76.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2007/11/19 AT 12 UTC:
10.4S / 76.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYSTEM EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT
SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS.=

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181300

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.3S / 75.5E
(EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 09.4S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 10.4S/76.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 11.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: 11.8S/74.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/21 00 UTC: 12.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/21 12 UTC: 12.3S/72.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N3 IS DEEPENING EAST OF CHAGOS ISLANDS, 1350 KM
WESTNOPRTHWEST OF THE WEAKENING EX-ARIEL.
THE LLCC IS TRACKING SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, WICH ESTABLISHES THE
STEERING FLOW OF THE TWO LOWS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AS IT WILL
APPROACH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

[Squarethecircle]

I'm betting 10 bucks this thing makes hurricane-equivalent status before dying in the extreme South Indian.

[badkhan]

It seems to be moving towards the equator.

[HURAKAN]

Remember that you're looking at the Southern Hemisphere, which means that if a cyclone is moving south, it's moving poleward, not equatorward.

[P.K.]

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Remember that you're looking at the Southern Hemisphere, which means that if a cyclone is moving south, it's moving poleward, not equatorward.

Correct, a SW track would be like a NE track in the Northern Hemisphere.

[Squarethecircle]

Look at the most recent visible (it's further up on the page if you can't find it); this system looks like a very organized Tropical Storm (which, I suppose, is what it's supposed to be anyway, but...)

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 181835

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2007/11/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 76.3E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 10.3S/76.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 11.6S/77.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 13.0S/76.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2007/11/20 18 UTC: 13.4S/75.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2007/11/21 06 UTC: 13.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2007/11/21 18 UTC: 13.8S/72.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THE LLCC IS TRACKING SOUTHWARDS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST, WICH ESTABLISHES THE STEERING FLOW OF THE TWO LOWS. IT
SHOULD
CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AS IT WILL APPROACH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.=

[HURAKAN]

18/2030 UTC 8.5S 76.2E T3.0/3.0 04S -- South Indian Ocean