Potential Miller A for the Carolinas?

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Potential Miller A for the Carolinas?

#1 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:56 am

NWS Charlotte mentions the potential for a Miller A storm this coming weekend. The Thanksgiving Day event is a strong front, but the next system is the one models are hinting for a Miller A/ CAD situation. Too much model divergence at this point, but something to watch. See NWS for forecast discussion.

Any thoughts or insight into this scenario?

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH NW FLOW
WILL PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND FROPA AND A FAIRLY WEAK SNOW
EVENT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE FAVORED NW FLOW REGIONS. TOO FAR
OUT TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL AS FAR AS TIMING OF EXITING WARM NOSE
BUT MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED TIME...HOUR OR
TWO...WHERE MIXED TYPE PRECIP COULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
PREDOMINATE TYPE SNOW. ELSEWHERE...DRYING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LAST OF THE H85 CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI AND SETS INTO A NON/CLASSIC WEDGING PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LR MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS FAR AS DEEPENING H5 TROF ACROSS TX INTO AR. THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS BRINGS IN PRECIP MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND
KEEPS A LLVL COLD TONGUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC PUSH OF THETA/E LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH FOR
EXITING MID ATLANTIC HIGH...SO WILL NOT JUMP ON ANY MIXED PRECIP
TYPE ATTM. COLD FRONT TIMING LOOKS TO REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LATE SUN AND A MIXING IN OF COLDER AIR COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 3500 FEET. ANOTHER COLD DAY IN STORE SAT WITH TEMPS
REACHING ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO NEAR NORMAL MON WITH
IMPRESSIVE GULF SURGE.-- End Changed Discussion --
Last edited by Lowpressure on Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:06 am

Whats a Miller A?
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Re: Potential Miller A for the Carolinas?

#3 Postby CajunMama » Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:13 am

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Re: Potential Miller A for the Carolinas?

#4 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:55 pm

Models watching Texas system for Mid-Atlantic weekend event. NWS Charlotte not jumping on GFS solution yet as far as mixed precip/CAD for Carolinas.
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Re: Potential Miller A for the Carolinas?

#5 Postby Stephanie » Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:46 pm

I did see the track for that new storm moving along the Gulf coast. Haven't seen any kind of storm do that in quite a while (hence the drought situation). I forgot that track can create a Miller A storm. It's early for me to think in terms of a significant snowstorm, but hey, with the way this year has been, anything is possible!

Can you even imagine that a Miller A storm would be the one thing that would help with the drought situation down in the South? Usually it's the tropics that helps out in this area. Strange year!
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