Area of Convection NW Caribbean

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Area of convection here. What is causing it? Stalled front of some sort?
I will keep an eye on it for persistence. I'm not expecting any
development but I do think it will produce some strong
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Sanibel]

A weak flare-up of convection over warm SST's.

Too weak.

[boca]

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH PRESSURE CELL (1025 MB) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESULTING IN NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...AND 10
TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. SKIES OVER OUR REGION ARE VARIABLY
CLOUDY...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
THE DISTANT WATERS SOUTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS.

According to the NWS in Key West its just a weak tropical wave moving west and it will probably be gone tomorrow. Although I'm -removed- this to move north and NE towards Florida to give us some rain.Their is a front that will move into Florida later this week maybe that will push whatever is left down there towards us.

[Squarethecircle]

You know hurricane season is over when...

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Interesting action down in the SW Caribbean. Might it move north.

[gatorcane]

Hey Boca yes it is interesting. But the shear is strong. It should move NNW has the next cold front moves into the GOM....

I hope it comes this way and gives us alot of rain.

[Patrick99]

Sure has been a lot of smoke down there this year without much fire.....come on big blob!

[wxman57]

Bones has an announcement:

[gatorcane]

8:05AM TWD:

maybe upper-level winds are favorable:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING A MEAN RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

[Cyclone1]

If it forms, wake me up, I'm sick of looking at waves that just die out in the SW carib.

[Frank2]

That's a year-round feature, as mentioned last week - if something did form, it can't move very much without moving into a shear zone...

It's similar to having only one checker left and being able to move just one space forward or backward without being taken - when that happens, the game (or season) is over...

[Squarethecircle]

That's a year-round feature, as mentioned last week - if something did form, it can't move very much without moving into a shear zone...

It's similar to having only one checker left and being able to move just one space forward or backward without being taken - when that happens, the game (or season) is over...

Bad simile; this storm can only move in ONE direction .

[Cyclone1]

... and so can checkers. Well, two, but only forward.

[boca]

I know we won't get anything organized down in the Caribbean,but maybe the moisture will move up this way around Thanksgiving given the front across Central or South Florida.The SW flow should usher in some of that tropical moisture down there.

[Brent]

If it forms, wake me up, I'm sick of looking at waves that just die out in the SW carib.

Agreed.

I am over hurricane season and have been for over a month. See everyone on the winter board the next 4 months!