South China Sea: Tropical Storm Hagibis

[cycloneye]

00z EURO

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 003
WTPN31 PGTW 190900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.5N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.1N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 124.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[Squarethecircle]

I agree with the potential for rapid intensification suggested by the JTWC, and this should make landfall near where whatshisface did earlier this year.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2019NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 10:37:49 N Lon : 123:09:56 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.2 2.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -12.1C Cloud Region Temp : -47.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:25:48 N Lon: 122:09:36 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

19/1430 UTC 10.4N 123.2E T3.0/3.0 23W -- West Pacific Ocean

[CrazyC83]

PAGASA has named this Tropical Storm Lando.

[Squarethecircle]

Hi Lando!
What a funny name!

[HURAKAN]

Hi Lando!
What a funny name!

In Spanish sometimes it's used as a nickname for "Orlando."

[Squarethecircle]

Hi Lando!
What a funny name!

In Spanish sometimes it's used as a nickname for "Orlando."

No wonder the Philippines uses it.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Tropical Storm:

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 192100
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 10.4N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.3N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.7N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 9.5N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.1N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.4N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.9N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 121.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
//
BT
#0001

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

[P.K.]

Still a TD (And not even a 30kt TD) from the RSMC. None of the other agencies in the area apart from the ones mentioned already have done anything with this yet.

WWJP25 RJTD 191800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 54N 162E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 52N 179E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 996 HPA AT 60N 151E
MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 42N 133E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 133E TO 42N 135E 41N 137E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 133E TO 39N 130E 36N 126E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 48N 147E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 25N 119E 20N 121E 17N 114E 22N 114E 23N 117E 25N
119E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 123E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 30N 109E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 36N 153E EAST 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Tropical Storm from JTWC now; aber no longer forecast to be hurricane intensity.

[Chacor]

JMA have it a TS soon.
171
WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 09.5N 121.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 10.5N 117.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

20/0230 UTC 9.3N 120.2E T2.5/2.5 23W -- West Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 09.7N 118.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 10.4N 113.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2020NOV20 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 9:30:44 N Lon : 118:48:37 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -24.7C Cloud Region Temp : -45.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Squarethecircle]

Looking good now; center is under convection, although to the northeast edge. T-numbers seem pretty accurate too... Does anyone have a recent wind shear map; I can't, for whatever reason, get to the NRL's.

[HURAKAN]