Hurricane Humberto Cyclone Report=Peaked at 80kts

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092007_Humberto.pdf

Read the report and see why they haved it peaked at 80kts and not higher.

[CrazyC83]

I am in agreement with the 80 kt - that was my estimated peak as well. Only $50M in damage kills any thought of retiring the name though...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98002 A previous analysis that I wrote...

[Andrew92]

Yeah, I'm not surprised about Humberto only being a C1 at landfall instead of a C2, like some wondered. The $50 million surprised me, as the damage looked a little more severe than that, but then again many are still been recovering from Rita.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

Yep, they think that Rita held down the damage as much of what could have been damaged had already been taken out by Rita.

[Cyclenall]

Wasn't the damage $500,000,000?

[Andrew92]

Wasn't the damage $500,000,000?

The media originally thought that's what the damage would be, but it is now officially 50 million, not 500 million.

-Andrew92

[Squarethecircle]

Wasn't the damage $500,000,000?

The second coming of OPHELIA! FREAKIN' RUN!

[Cyclone1]

Remember Ophelia? $1.6B was the original estimate, but it was just over $60M.

EDIT: WHOA! Nice timing Squarethecircle!

[CrazyC83]

One thing you have to wonder is what would have happened if Humberto turned harder to the right and had, say, another 4-6 hours over water?

[Squarethecircle]

Remember Ophelia? $1.6B was the original estimate, but it was just over $60M.

EDIT: WHOA! Nice timing Squarethecircle!

I try

[Cyclone1]

High end cat2, visible eye, $200M at the most. My guess, CrazyC83.

[Squarethecircle]

High end cat2, visible eye, $200M at the most. My guess, CrazyC83.

Really, now? Is that right?

[Cyclone1]

High end cat2, visible eye, $200M at the most. My guess, CrazyC83.

Really, now? Is that right?

Yeah, if it had stayed off shore for maybe 6 more hours, at the rate it was intensifying, I think it could have hit at least 110mph.

[Squarethecircle]

I would think a little higher than that.

[CrazyC83]

I decided to make up some hypothetical landfall points and what I think the intensity would have been if Humberto had turned (or not turned) and made landfall at the following locations:

Freeport, TX - 50 kt (at 0130Z)
Galveston, TX - 60 kt (at 0330Z)
W of High Island, TX - 70 kt (at 0500Z)
High Island, TX - 75 kt (at 0615Z)
Actual landfall - 80 kt (at 0700Z)
Sabine Pass, TX (Rita landfall point) - 90 kt (at 0900Z)
Cameron, LA - 100 kt (at 1100Z)
S of Creole, LA - 105 kt (at 1200Z)

Afterward, land interaction and eyewall issues would have slowed down the intensification. BTW, it is barely 150 miles along the coast from Freeport to Creole.

[Ptarmigan]

80 Knots sounds about right.

[WindRunner]

I am in agreement with the 80 kt - that was my estimated peak as well. Only $50M in damage kills any thought of retiring the name though...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98002 A previous analysis that I wrote...

Thanks for the reminder of that thread, Crazy . . . I read my post in there after I read the TCR and kinda laughed

[HurricaneBill]

Humberto will definitely serve as a reminder to how quickly a hurricane threat can develop.

[CrazyC83]

I am in agreement with the 80 kt - that was my estimated peak as well. Only $50M in damage kills any thought of retiring the name though...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98002 A previous analysis that I wrote...

Thanks for the reminder of that thread, Crazy . . . I read my post in there after I read the TCR and kinda laughed

I wonder if someone at the NHC read that? The data was not conclusive enough to support an upgrade to Cat 2 from my view, as the dropsonde and radar estimates were both in the low 80s, flight level below 80 and damage results not supporting such either. Only the SFMR supported Cat 2 (found to be 85 kt in the end), and having only one source out of six available sources supporting an upgrade does not make it conclusive enough.

The 6 sources are SFMR (supported 85), flight level (78), dropsonde (83), station data (78), radar (82) and damage surveys (73). The average of those is 79 kt. (The 78 kt station data is assuming a sustained-gust ratio of 1.3 for the 101 kt gust on a ship at Golden Pass, and the 73 kt damage survey is based on high-end EF1 damage which appeared to be from gusts of about 95 kt - of course it is possible the strongest winds missed structures though)

[MGC]

All of the wind sources listed have a margin of error. How often does a sonde get dropped and happens to fall though the max winds? SFMR is only good well off shore, while Humberto was intensifying very close to land. Station data again has to be in the right place at the right time. Nexrad is pretty good but every storm is different thus the reduction factor varies by storm although the NHC uses a standard reduction factor like every hurricane eye wall profile is identical. Humberto could have been a low end Cat-2 but who knows......MGC