South China Sea: Tropical Storm Hagibis

[P.K.]

T2.5 from RJTD on this system as well so this will be named shortly.

[cycloneye]

20/1430 UTC 10.2N 118.1E T3.0/3.0 23W -- West Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0724 HAGIBIS (0724) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 09.6N 117.1E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 10.3N 112.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 221800UTC 10.7N 111.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 231800UTC 11.1N 110.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2020NOV20 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 9:39:59 N Lon : 117:20:34 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Looking much healthier.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 009
WTPN31 PGTW 202100
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 9.6N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.0N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 10.1N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.2N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.7N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.1N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 117.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (MITAG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001

[HURAKAN]

Looking increasingly better.

[Squarethecircle]

That storm looks wicked, man. I think the forecast might be a little low; there is always the possibility for rapid deepening in the South China Sea...

[Chacor]

That storm looks wicked, man. I think the forecast might be a little low; there is always the possibility for rapid deepening in the South China Sea...

It rarely happens in the SCS. Usually east of the Philippines or over the inland seas, but not west.

[HURAKAN]

Should be a typhoon before impacting Vietnam. NRL says 50 knots.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 9:53:06 N Lon : 116:17:57 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -82.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 9:43:27 N Lon : 114:04:01 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 982.0mb/ 63.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.4mb

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -83.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

This has also been upgraded at some point this morning.

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0724 HAGIBIS (0724)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 09.5N 114.1E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 10.3N 112.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 231200UTC 10.7N 111.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 241200UTC 11.3N 111.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[Sanibel]

It would be cool if it hooked north into Saigon.

Is there a Bay Of Bengal future for this?

[RattleMan]

This has also been upgraded at some point this morning.

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0724 HAGIBIS (0724)
...

It was upgraded at 0600z.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

"China Sea" is incorrect in the title. This is the South China Sea. There is also an East China Sea, so you need to be more specific.