Cold Turkey Day for Texas?

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z GFS suggested places West and North of DFW might see ice, then snow. But what the 0Z GFS giveth, the 6Z GFS taketh away.



In Texas, the air doesn't have to be super mondo cold, if it is dry enough. I have seen dewpoint depression cooling drop temps that critical few degrees when precip starts.

[Johnny]

Jeff just came out with a very detailed discussion and forecast.


Warm weather will come to an abrupt end tomorrow evening as strong cold front sweeps through the area.



Wet and cold conditions expected through the weekend.



Short Term:



Mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints have returned to SE TX this morning with air mass slightly unstable. Trigger temps. in the mid to upper 70’s should support some shower and thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Deeper moisture poised over the lower TX coast will return northward and help produce scattered showers. Fog should be less widespread tonight and Wed. AM as low level flow increases ahead of strong arctic boundary.



Wednesday:



Wed. will be the transition day from summer to winter as is so common here in TX. Strong arctic boundary will enter N TX late tonight and plow off the coast by midnight Wed. Before the front passes afternoon highs will climb into the low 80’s with good instability and an unstable air mass. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop from N to S ahead of the boundary Wed afternoon and evening. Severe threat is isolated and confined more to the NE of the area…although I would not rule out an isolated pulse severe event. Strong cold air advection onsets after the front with sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusty into Thanksgiving Day.



May see a little clearing on Thanksgiving Day making the temp. forecast very unsure at the moment. Feel that even with some clearing…strong CAA will keep temps. in check in the 50’s. If skies do not clear temps. could fall into the 40’s during the day.



Friday into the Weekend:



Classic storm system to develop and cross TX will multiple weather impacts. Cold arctic dome will be firmly entrenched over the state with boundary about 200 miles off the coast. Upper trough will develop over the SW US inducing a SW flow aloft over NE winds at the surface. This will result in a good isentropic rainfall event for much of TX starting early Friday SW TX and covering nearly the entire state by late Friday. Coast surface low develops off of Brownsville and moves NE late Friday through late Sunday with NE winds maintaining cold air drainage into the region. Combination of thick clouds and evaporative effects of rain falling through a dry air column to start will mean cold temps. from Friday through Sunday. Will cut guidance by 5-10 degrees and TV numbers by 10 degrees and The Weather Channel numbers by at least 15 degrees for Friday through Sunday. Expect almost no diurnal range and temps. to remain nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s from Friday through Sunday. Given the gusty NNE winds, cold temps., and periods of rain and fog a nasty forecast is in store for Friday into the weekend.


Interesting part of the forecast comes Sunday night as cold trough ejects across TX and surface low wraps into LA allowing colder thickness values to drop SSW into SE TX. Rainfall should be ending from the SW to NE late Sunday…however critical thickness values may be met along and N of HWY 105 and E of I-45 before the rainfall ends to result in a change over to sleet or light snow. For now anything that falls will be light and surface temps. will be well above freezing so no accumulations are expected.



Forecast for Harris and surrounding counties:



Today: party cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Highs near 80 S winds 10mph.



Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80’s. S winds 10-15mph.



Wednesday night: Cloudy and turning much colder with a 60% chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40’s. S winds shifting to the north and increasing 15-25mph and gusty.



Thanksgiving Day: mostly cloudy and much colder with a 20% chance of morning light rain. Highs in the mid 50’s. N winds 15-25mph and gusty.



Friday: increasing clouds and cold with a 40% chance of light rain late. Temps. nearly steady in the upper 40’s early falling into the mid 40’s late. N winds 10-15mph.



Saturday: cloudy, cold, and wet. An 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temps. nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s. NNE winds 10-20mph.



Sunday: cloudy, cold, and wet. An 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temps. nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s. NNW winds 10-20mph.

[gboudx]

Here's an update from DFW NWS:

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SFC-15000 FEET THINGS COULD TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORST OVER THE
WEEKEND....ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WE/LL KEEP EVALUATING MODEL TRENDS FOR NOW AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

[double D]

Here's an update from DFW NWS:

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SFC-15000 FEET THINGS COULD TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORST OVER THE
WEEKEND....ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WE/LL KEEP EVALUATING MODEL TRENDS FOR NOW AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

The folks over at Easternuswx are really hyping the Texas snow for this weekend, especially west of I-35. Depending on where the low tracks, someone might see a good dumping of snow.

Also if the 12z Euro verifies, then Dallas will get in on the action too.

[gboudx]

The folks over at Easternuswx are really hyping the Texas snow for this weekend, especially west of I-35. Depending on where the low tracks, someone might see a good dumping of snow.

Also if the 12z Euro verifies, then Dallas will get in on the action too.

That would be something for Dallas wouldn't it? We have no plans, having done most of our Christmas shopping already. We can sit back, brew some Starbuck's Christmas Blend coffee and watch.

I'll buy into it when I look out the window and see it falling though. I've had Lucy pull that football on me too many times.

[TrekkerCC]

The folks over at Easternuswx are really hyping the Texas snow for this weekend, especially west of I-35. Depending on where the low tracks, someone might see a good dumping of snow.

Also if the 12z Euro verifies, then Dallas will get in on the action too.

That would be something for Dallas wouldn't it? We have no plans, having done most of our Christmas shopping already. We can sit back, brew some Starbuck's Christmas Blend coffee and watch.

I'll buy into it when I look out the window and see it falling though. I've had Lucy pull that football on me too many times.

I'm becoming cautiously optimistic for the weekend as well. The Euro 12z does look very interesting, especially Saturday and Sunday. I guess we will see how the models trend over the next couple of days.

APPENDED to add latest NWS Ft. Worth Discussion:

AFTER THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN...THINGS BECOMING INTERESTING IF NOT
PROBLEMATIC. A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ABOVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL FRIDAY NIGHT....BUT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES SATURDAY A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

AS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR WINTER WEATHER ALONG A WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY AND FURTHER WEST.
THERE IS A STRONG DIV-Q SIGNATURE AS WELL AS STRONG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND MAY NEAR OR MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY. DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WE FEEL IT IS BEST TO SEE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO
RUNS BEFORE ADDING THE "S" WORD TO THE FORECAST.

It appears that the NWS Ft. Worth Office is going to wait for more model convergence. Looks like they think that any wintry precip will be confined to the western counties.

[gboudx]

AS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR WINTER WEATHER ALONG A WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY AND FURTHER WEST.
THERE IS A STRONG DIV-Q SIGNATURE AS WELL AS STRONG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND MAY NEAR OR MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY. DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WE FEEL IT IS BEST TO SEE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO
RUNS BEFORE ADDING THE "S" WORD TO THE FORECAST.

It appears that the NWS Ft. Worth Office is going to wait for more model convergence. Looks like they think that any wintry precip will be confined to the western counties.

I wonder if that "S" word is "sleet", "snow" or "snothing".

[Extremeweatherguy]

^^You can see how sharp the temperature drop is behind this front. At 4pm CDT, Southern Oklahoma was in the lower 80s, while only a couple hundred miles north, in central Kansas, the temperature was hovering around 40˚. That is an amazing 40˚+ temperature difference within only a couple hundred miles! ^^

[double D]

Wow! That is a pretty amazing temperature drop behind the front. It's going to feel refreshing when the front comes in and we can get rid of these 80's.

I hope the folks in west Texas are ready for a good snow because it's looking more likely that they will get "dumped" on. I'm so jealous.

[TexasStooge]

The Travel Trouble spots list is building and building as more and more cities put some winter weather in their forecasts, especially in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.

AMARILLO
Thanksgiving Day: 39°F | 23°F
Friday: 32°F | 24°F
Saturday: 37°F | 21°F

DALHART
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 22°F
Friday: 30°F | 22°F
Saturday: 38°F | 19°F

LUBBOCK
Thanksgiving Day: 32°F | 27°F
Friday: 35°F | 25°F
Saturday: 33°F | 26°F

CHILDRESS
Thanksgiving Day: 42°F | 28°F
Friday: 39°F | 28°F
Saturday: 34°F | 29°F

WICHITA FALLS
Saturday: 40°F | 33°F

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Thursday Night: 37°F

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the front has officially reached Dallas! At Love Field they fell from 71˚ at 8:53am down to 60˚ at 9:53am (an 11-degree drop in one hour)!

[cheezyWXguy]

Well the front has officially reached Dallas! At Love Field they fell from 71˚ at 8:53am down to 60˚ at 9:53am (an 11-degree drop in one hour)!

Here in Plano the front reached us just before 9, when the temperature was 70...right now, it is 53 degrees according to weatherbug

[Portastorm]

OK now ... I would say it IS a Cold Turkey Day in Texas, wouldn't you?

NWS forecasted low 40s for the Austin metro area this Thanksgiving morning. I'm sitting at 37.5 degrees here in north Austin. Seems like the airmass was colder than thought.

[gboudx]

It was 36 here which is just about on the mark with the forecast. NWS is putting us with some light wintry precip after midnight, but no accumulations in the DFW area. Nothing for me to stay awake over.

[double D]

Yes Portastorm, it's a "Cold Turkey Day" for sure. Nice job on your thread to verify two weeks out.

Hope everybody has a great Thanksgiving!

[Johnny]

Per visible satellite, lots of cloud cover in South, Texas....the western hill country and in West, Texas pushing across the state. Here in Montgomery County, the sun is out full bore but pretty darn chilly. I'd expect the cloud cover to make it into our area in the next few hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lots of snow showing up on this webcam out of Odessa, TX...

[Johnny]

A couple of guys that I know in Odessa said it is coming down real good and sticking!! It's also snowing down the road in Midland.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well folks, I have decided that I have waited long enough to see snow...so I am going to drive to it! In about 5 minutes I will be leaving for Fort Worth and then likely over west to Abilene (where there is a "heavy snow warning"). Hopefully I will get some good snow and possibly some video to post when I return tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well folks, I have decided that I have waited long enough to see snow...so I am going to drive to it! In about 5 minutes I will be leaving for Fort Worth and then likely over west to Abilene (where there is a "heavy snow warning"). Hopefully I will get some good snow and possibly some video to post when I return tomorrow.

I tell you what EWG...im gonna stay on my prediction that tonights winter event is still underestimated and that you will see you snow in the DFW area...Ive been watching the Cowboys and its been snowing there already