WPAC: Tropical Depression Mitag

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 143.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR A TIGHTENING SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EVIDENT IN A
192033Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
BASED ON AN IMPROVING, BUT STILL WEAK, LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND
GENEARLLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

19/1430 UTC 8.6N 143.4E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

Model runs here:

12z EURO

The EURO slams it to Luzon as a Typhoon.Lets see what the other models have in their runs.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 11.4N 139.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 11.6N 135.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Quite a difference in centre position from JMA and JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN22 PGTW 200300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 138.9E TO 12.2N 132.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 138.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210300Z.
//

[CrazyC83]

30 kt TD according to the JMA...

[HURAKAN]

20/0230 UTC 11.7N 138.4E T2.0/2.0 93W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HurricaneRobert]

24W.NONAME

It changed just as I was clicking on it so I can't find the stupid image.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251Z NOV 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN32 PGTW 200900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.2N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.9N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.2N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 136.9E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 200251Z
NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 200300 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[HURAKAN]

A double punch for the Philippines.

[P.K.]

T2.5 from RJTD so this should be upgraded to 0723 shortly.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to 0723.

WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0723 MITAG (0723) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 13.0N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 13.9N 131.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 221200UTC 13.7N 128.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 231200UTC 14.0N 125.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Coredesat]

This is coming together pretty quickly. I don't like the look of this.

[Coredesat]

Could a mod retitle this thread "Tropical Storm MITAG (0723) near Philippines"?

[Squarethecircle]

Typhoon (JTWC) before hitting the Phillipines, although it looks a lot stronger than the JTWC thinks it is now...

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2020NOV20 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 12:53:05 N Lon : 136:26:22 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 / 998.2mb/ 33.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.3 2.6 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -46.1C Cloud Region Temp : -58.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

20/1430 UTC 13.9N 135.0E T3.0/3.0 MITAG -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2020NOV20 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 13:42:53 N Lon : 134:47:29 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -38.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM 24W (MITAG) WARNING NR 003
WTPN32 PGTW 202100
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (MITAG) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.1N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.1N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 134.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (HAGIBIS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.