WPAC: Tropical Depression Mitag

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

Eye contracting.

[Derek Ortt]

now, if the other typhoon makes a U turn, how could this cyclone continue to the west without rapidly weakening due to increased shear?

[Chacor]

now, if the other typhoon makes a U turn, how could this cyclone continue to the west without rapidly weakening due to increased shear?

JTWC have Hagibis going straight into Vietnam though.

[CrazyC83]

Could this get all the way to super typhoon status?

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0723 MITAG (0723)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 14.2N 126.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 14.6N 125.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241800UTC 16.1N 123.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251800UTC 18.5N 120.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[Ptarmigan]

I saw a model that Mitag could become a Category 4 before landfall. Quite impressive of a storm.

[CrazyC83]

I saw a model that Mitag could become a Category 4 before landfall. Quite impressive of a storm.

It definitely looks stronger than a Cat 2...

[stu]

Ptarmingan,

Can you link the model? I am thinking of making a trip over to intercept Mitag.

[P.K.]

Could this get all the way to super typhoon status?

Only 5m/s short at the moment.

WTPQ20 BABJ 221800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MITAG 0724 (0723) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC
00HR 14.1N 127.2E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 350KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 14.2N 125.1E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 15.8N 123.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 17.4N 122.2E 955HPA 40M/S=

[Ptarmigan]

Ptarmingan,

Can you link the model? I am thinking of making a trip over to intercept Mitag.

Hi Stu. Here is the model from Weather Underground where I saw it.



If you make the trip to intercept Mitag, I would like to see reports, photos, and videos.

[Chacor]

Could this get all the way to super typhoon status?

Only 5m/s short at the moment.

WTPQ20 BABJ 221800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MITAG 0724 (0723) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC
00HR 14.1N 127.2E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 350KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 14.2N 125.1E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 15.8N 123.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 17.4N 122.2E 955HPA 40M/S=

Beijing's hardly the RSMC now is it.

[Chacor]

Ptarmingan,

Can you link the model? I am thinking of making a trip over to intercept Mitag.

Hi Stu. Here is the model from Weather Underground where I saw it.



If you make the trip to intercept Mitag, I would like to see reports, photos, and videos.

That's not a model, that's the JTWC's forecast.

[P.K.]

Beijing's hardly the RSMC now is it.

I'm well aware of that.

Anyway here is the latest forecast track image.

[Ptarmigan]

That's not a model, that's the JTWC's forecast.

Aren't forecasts based on models?

[stu]

OK I have just 8 hours before I have to press the go button and go after this storm (Of course I will share images and video to my friends here at S2K if I make the interecpt)

I need to get a handle on the track (dont we all) as it happens, if the forecast track (JTWC) comes to pass, then landfall will be over a mountain region on the East cost where there are NO ROADS !!! I am not going all that way and not being able to get the eye dure to roads.

I could do with some forecast track advise - any one care to offer up a view ??

[Coredesat]

That's not a model, that's the JTWC's forecast.

Aren't forecasts based on models?

Yes, but that graphic is not one.

[stu]

Back on topic - latest guidence now suggest solid CAT4 at landfall

[cycloneye]

November 22,12z EURO

Late posting this but here is the 12z EURO that has a strong typhoon slamming Luzon.

[CrazyC83]

Back on topic - latest guidence now suggest solid CAT4 at landfall

Yep, forecasting 115 kt...