Cold Turkey Day for Texas?

[Ed Mahmoud]

FTW has gone back to rain. One more batch between Wise County and Aspermont, that will maybe catch the Northern Metroplex (like Collin County), and may come down as snow, but IMHO, not much for DFW.



Models still haven't given a clear cut answer where and how much snow falls in Texas Saturday into Sunday, or whether part of SE Texas might get into or close enough to the warm sector for some enhanced t-storm action.

[winter texas]

Snow fell all over Dallas and Fort worth today starting around 330 this afternoon! heavy snow bursts at that! but it didnt stick to the ground... maybe a little stuck in Fort Worth .. i live in Irving and there was a heavy snow burst this after noon that lasted for about an hour but none of it stuck to the ground...... right now the heavy snow is in south Dallas but none of the snow is sticking to the ground......

[Sean in New Orleans]

We're expecting severe weather around New Orleans on Sunday...possible Tornadoes. November is New Orleans second, brief tornado season. We've had a couple of F3's in the last decade strike the metro area and cause severe damage in November...

[TexasStooge]

Snow fell all over Dallas and Fort worth today starting around 330 this afternoon! heavy snow bursts at that! but it didnt stick to the ground... maybe a little stuck in Fort Worth .. i live in Irving and there was a heavy snow burst this after noon that lasted for about an hour but none of it stuck to the ground...... right now the heavy snow is in south Dallas but none of the snow is sticking to the ground......

The wintry mix-turned-snow fell on the ground by the time I ws getting a last minute item for the Thanksgiving Dinner (along with Christmas decorations). I know this winter weather event was gonna happen, but not THAT soon.

[TexasSam]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE STARTED RECEIVING REPORTS OF SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY. WET BULB ZERO IS RATHER LOW SO
WILL INTRODUCE ICE PELLETS AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE NORTH AND
COASTAL COUNTIES. A NEW SET OF ZONES ON THE WAY. 43

[m_ru]

I got to play in the snow today. I was in Fort Worth visiting family. It got pretty heavy at times but none of it stuck. It was a really nice surprise.

[cheezyWXguy]

lucky people...not even a rain drop here in plano....how typical...always skips right over me

[Portastorm]

Nice to see those snow reports from DFW! Hope y'all enjoyed it!! (sorry Cheezy ... maybe Plano will see some action before the weekend is over).

NWS forecast offices around Texas are gearing up for another potential winter weather event starting late tonight into Sunday. As you might expect, the computer models aren't handling the upper low in the Four Corners area well so right now it's hard to say what will happen. Here's a smattering from this morning's discussions:

From Midland/Odesssa:
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GET PINCHED
OFF FROM THIS MAIN LOW AND DIVE FARTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND DRAG
IT ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...ONLY THIS TIME ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.

From Fort Worth:
MODELS AGREE ON WET WEEKEND...WTIH PRECIP STARTING FRIDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. I INDICATED A BIT OF A
WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...BUT REST OF
WEEKEND MODEL THICKNESSES FORECAST COLD RAIN RATHER THAN WINTER
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS...IT MAY GET
COOL ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP AGAIN...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY
AT THE SAME TIME AND PRECIP MAY BE OVER BEFORE IT COOLS ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED...BECAUSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW A COOLER
TREND...WINTER WEATHER WILL BE BACK IN THE PICTURE.

From San Angelo:
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

From Amarillo:
EXPECT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN GENERAL.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN AREA OF SNOW ALREADY MOVING
TOWARD WESTERN AREAS AND THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AHEAD OF MAIN PACKAGE.
ISOLATED AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
SECOND SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA TODAY.

From Austin/San Antonio:
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF RAIN OR OTHER PRECIP, BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE FOR A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE
DRIER AND COLDER LAYER OF AIR FROM AROUND 3 KFT TO 7 KFT. IF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE PRECIP IN OUR AREA, IT
WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SLEET, THEN CHANGE TO RAIN, SIMILAR TO THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE THURSDAY EVENING IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH EAST TX. ... THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA TO BRING A THREAT FOR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT A BURST OF SNOW CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER COULD BRIEFLY STICK ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF
ROCKSPRINGS AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THE
STORM SYSTEM, SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS ANY MIXED PRECIP CONCERNS AS AN
SPS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

[Johnny]

The NWS is calling for me to get into the upper 50's today? How in the hell is that gonna happen with a north winds and solid overcast? Someone please enlighten me.

[TexasStooge]

The DFW area can see another round of wintry mix before the weekend's done, but the ground surface temps will be a little too warm for any of it to stick.

The list of Travel Trouble Spots is a different story.

AMARILLO
Today: 34°F | 22°F
Saturday: 36°F | 20°F

DALHART
Today: 31°F | 20°F
Saturday: 33°F | 17°F

LUBBOCK
Today: 35°F | 28°F
Saturday: 34°F | 29°F

CHILDRESS
Today: 37°F | 28°F
Saturday: 35°F | 30°F

WICHITA FALLS
Saturday: 40°F | 36°F
Sunday: 41°F | 35°F

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just returned from Eastland, TX (between Abilene and Fort Worth) and I can report that there was a good 1.5" of snow on the ground at 10pm last night. It was still there this morning too and it made for quite a nice winter scene. I will probably post some video later today..

Update: I just finished uploading the video. Here it is = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pK8Ohafkl6E

[jasons2k]

After spending a warm Turkey Day in the Tampa area it was back to reality as soon as I stepped off the plane this morning here in Houston...yes, it is November after all.

EWG thanks for the wonderful video. Funny thing (to me at least), I've driven that stretch of I-20 it seems like a thousand times and I always remember seeing that sign for Desdemona Road in your video...crazy...anyway, great video!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just posted EWG's video at blogs called Gates of Vienna and Gulf Coast Pundit.


That rocks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New WRF looks rather, um, interesting for a lot of Texas West of the Metroplex.

Dallas and Fort Worth miss out, a shade too warm, but The Big Country and Hill Country (away from the I-35 corridor) look darned impressive, with potentially crippling amounts of snow. I hope Extreme Weather Guy goes snow chasing again for those of us stuck in Houston.

WRF model for Texas


Close to a foot. That would rock!

[jasons2k]

Something like that happened around Easter break of 1996? A lot of the students left Lubbock to head home to DFW, etc., and it just came down in a big burst. Something like 18" around Sweetwater. I-20 was closed and I know several people who had to be rescued from their cars and put into a makeshift shelter (I think at one of the various hotels) for the night.

[Portastorm]

Just saw your video EWG ... that's great! You did a fine job!!

From the looks of it, there's going to be a lot more of that white stuff out near Abilene (and points west and south of Abilene) very soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, that area looks like it will be getting a healthy dose of snow and sleet starting later today. Unfortunately though, I am stuck in Houston this weekend and will not be able to "chase" it. Instead, I will have to bear this even worse rainy, windy and cold weather we are seeing down here.

I would gladly take snow and 32˚ over rain+wind and 42˚ any day of the week!

[winter texas]

my god another heavy snow warning for abilene! west texas has been the nations winter wonderland for the week! anybody know the chances of snow mixing in in Dallas fort worth... as usaul there saying a county or 2 northwest but they said that last time and snow fell in Dfw 2 days ago.... i know the snow wont stick in dfw, it be nice to see more wet snow fall though...

[cheezyWXguy]

Honestly, I think theyre a bit conservative witht eh forecast...it wasnt till today that they even mentioned snow mixing in with the rain...and tonight my low is 38 degrees...yet its already down to 37!...im thinking that they should at least consider issuing a winter weather advisory for the DFW area tonight

[gboudx]

Honestly, I think theyre a bit conservative witht eh forecast...it wasnt till today that they even mentioned snow mixing in with the rain...and tonight my low is 38 degrees...yet its already down to 37!...im thinking that they should at least consider issuing a winter weather advisory for the DFW area tonight

A WWA means that wintry weather is imminent or occurring and will cause inconvenience or life-threatening conditions if safety precautions aren't taken. Considering that surface temps will remain above freezing, there is no threat of this. We already have a Special Weather Statement highlighting some wintry precip mixed in. I think that's right at this point.