TD 15 Report is up

[Andrew92]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL152007_Fifteen.pdf

Not much to be said, but the best track is much longer than the original. And it became a fairly strong extratropical gale.

-Andrew92

[Cyclone1]

Doesn't mention Karen, so that solves that.

[cycloneye]

Andrew92,If I have to guess,the next report out will be the Karen one.

[Cyclone1]

That's the one I'm anticipating the most, Karen.

[Andrew92]

I agree Luis, that Karen will likely be next. I am interested to see if it gets upgraded to a hurricane for one coordinate.

The one I'm most anticipating is Erin right now. She could follow Karen. But I also thought if any report came out today in the EPAC, it would be Ivo, not Henriette, so anything can happen.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

I agree Luis, that Karen will likely be next. I am interested to see if it gets upgraded to a hurricane for one coordinate.

The one I'm most anticipating is Erin right now. She could follow Karen. But I also thought if any report came out today in the EPAC, it would be Ivo, not Henriette, so anything can happen.

-Andrew92

From the Karen discussion:

THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al ... .009.shtml?

Based on that information that forecaster Blake put in that discussion I say yes to upgrade.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry but i disagree with this, this system was clearly a 35 knot tropical storm. Its gotten to the point where they never change or update anything unless there is super soild recon or buoy data.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

why do you always suggest upgrading WITHOUT any real data? There was NOTHING that suggested TYD 15 was a tropical storm. NOTHING!!! If we followed your method, we'd have to ignore every scientific rule, which would not be correct

[Cyclone1]

TD15 actually only barely qualifies as a TD. Look at the pressure, 1011mb.

I agree with Derek.

[CrazyC83]

1011mb does not support TS intensity in the central Atlantic. That really only supports a "fluke TD" of 20 kt or so (a fluke TD as it doesn't have much winds but a closed circulation).

[dtrain44]

Anybody have any insight into why this one was less detailed than other TCRs? Are they just trying to get it finished or was it just not particularly interesting? For example, the TD 10 discussion had a little more meat to it.......

[WindRunner]

Anybody have any insight into why this one was less detailed than other TCRs? Are they just trying to get it finished or was it just not particularly interesting? For example, the TD 10 discussion had a little more meat to it.......

It was weak and ahead of a frontal boundary in the middle of the Atlantic, so it's not going to be as detailed or as important as the TCR for a strengthening TD that made landfall in a populated area.

[dtrain44]

Thanks, Windrunner. I kind of figured something like that, but I was wondering if they would go into a bit more detail on the synoptic history/data that convinced them to initiate advisories. I would find that stuff very interesting, as it would help us to understand a little more clearly how the NHC makes the more marginal calls that they face.

[Category 5]

I'm sorry but i disagree with this, this system was clearly a 35 knot tropical storm. Its gotten to the point where they never change or update anything unless there is super soild recon or buoy data.

Would you care sharing with the class some evidence to support this?

In your answer, please keep in mind that the NHC doesn't inflate numbers by upgrading systems because they feel like it.

[CrazyC83]

There is NOTHING to support TS intensity that I am aware of. Heck, the 30 kt intensity is too high IMO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cimss shown a 2.5t. Also it looked better then Chantel and barry. Theres your facts.

[Coredesat]

CIMSS ADT 2.5 + shear pattern + automated nature of CIMSS ADT = NHC isn't going to upgrade a system based on this alone. CIMSS ADT assumes the center is always near the warmest area in a mass of convection, which is not always true.

No other Dvorak fixes from SAB or TAFB were higher than T2.0. QuikSCAT and WindSAT observations did not support a TS.

Matt, unless you present hard evidence supporting your claim that it's a TS, which can only consist of data the NHC or any other agency doesn't have (but you must have something if you're so bold as to claim that this is a TS without any support), you're going to keep getting replies like this - you can't ignore them forever.

[HURAKAN]

===== ADT-Version 7.2.1 =====
--------Intensity------- ---Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax 6hr 3hr Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Ave Ave Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Lat Lon Mthd Comments
2007OCT11 201500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.96 -26.22 CRVBND N/A 30.08 50.62 FCST
2007OCT11 204500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 0.64 -20.57 CRVBND N/A 30.09 50.54 FCST
2007OCT11 211500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 5.54 -18.66 CRVBND N/A 30.11 50.46 FCST
2007OCT11 214500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 5.64 -17.59 CRVBND N/A 30.12 50.38 FCST
2007OCT11 221500 2.0 1009.0/ +0.0 / 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.5 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 3.64 -18.04 CRVBND N/A 30.13 50.29 FCST
2007OCT11 224500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 0.04 -16.12 CRVBND N/A 30.14 50.21 FCST
2007OCT11 231500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 0.54 -12.60 CRVBND N/A 30.14 50.12 FCST
2007OCT11 234500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 0.1T/hour OFF OFF -2.76 -9.91 CRVBND N/A 30.15 50.04 FCST
2007OCT12 001500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 3.4 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 11.84 -10.14 SHEAR N/A 30.15 49.96 FCST
2007OCT12 004500 2.1 1008.2/ +0.0 / 31.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 0.1T/hour OFF OFF 0.84 -12.72 CRVBND N/A 30.15 49.88 FCST
2007OCT12 011500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 0.1T/hour OFF OFF -38.56 -17.43 CRVBND N/A 30.16 49.79 FCST
2007OCT12 014500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.2 0.1T/hour OFF OFF -54.26 -24.84 CRVBND N/A 30.16 49.71 FCST
2007OCT12 021500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 0.1T/hour OFF OFF -25.86 -21.58 CRVBND N/A 30.00 49.75 FCST
2007OCT12 024500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -23.96 -23.27 CRVBND N/A 30.00 49.72 FCST
2007OCT12 031500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.7 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -10.06 -23.04 CRVBND N/A 30.00 49.68 FCST
2007OCT12 034500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -5.26 -22.25 CRVBND N/A 30.00 49.64 FCST
2007OCT12 054500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.34 -14.75 CRVBND N/A 30.00 49.49 FCST
2007OCT12 064500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF 10.64 -9.49 SHEAR N/A 30.00 49.40 FCST
2007OCT12 071500 2.6 1004.0/ +0.0 / 37.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF 14.04 -8.08 SHEAR N/A 30.00 49.36 FCST
2007OCT12 074500 2.7 1003.0/ +0.0 / 39.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3 0.5T/hour OFF OFF 13.64 -10.21 SHEAR N/A 30.00 49.32 FCST
2007OCT12 081500 2.7 1003.0/ +0.0 / 39.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF 14.04 -8.87 SHEAR N/A 30.02 49.45 FCST
2007OCT12 084500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF 12.54 -6.55 SHEAR N/A 30.01 49.41 FCST
2007OCT12 091500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 1.14 -4.01 CRVBND N/A 29.99 49.39 FCST
2007OCT12 094500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.34 -2.40 SHEAR N/A 29.99 49.36 FCST
2007OCT12 101500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.9 0.5T/hour ON OFF 15.84 0.49 SHEAR N/A 29.98 49.33 FCST
2007OCT12 104500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF 15.74 3.39 SHEAR N/A 29.97 49.31 FCST
2007OCT12 111500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 0.5T/hour ON OFF 16.54 3.54 SHEAR N/A 29.97 49.28 FCST
2007OCT12 114500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG 16.94 3.68 SHEAR N/A 29.97 49.26 FCST
2007OCT12 121500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG 17.44 4.21 SHEAR N/A 29.97 49.24 FCST
2007OCT12 124500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG 17.54 5.63 SHEAR N/A 29.97 49.22 FCST
2007OCT12 131500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG 17.04 5.80 SHEAR N/A 29.97 49.20 FCST
2007OCT12 134500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG 16.54 4.17 SHEAR N/A 29.98 49.19 FCST
2007OCT12 141500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 10.54 2.59 SHEAR N/A 30.10 49.12 FCST
2007OCT12 144500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.9 0.5T/hour ON OFF 10.24 1.54 SHEAR N/A 30.10 49.11 FCST
2007OCT12 151500 2.7 1003.0/ +0.0 / 39.0 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 0.5T/hour ON OFF 10.94 0.90 SHEAR N/A 30.10 49.09 FCST
2007OCT12 154500 2.7 1003.0/ +0.0 / 39.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.04 2.02 SHEAR N/A 30.10 49.08 FCST
2007OCT12 161500 2.6 1004.0/ +0.0 / 37.0 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 17.54 3.83 SHEAR N/A 30.10 49.06 FCST
2007OCT12 164500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 17.04 7.29 SHEAR N/A 30.11 49.05 FCST
2007OCT12 171500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.94 8.96 SHEAR N/A 30.11 49.04 FCST
2007OCT12 174500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.74 10.49 SHEAR N/A 30.11 49.02 FCST
2007OCT12 181500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.5T/hour ON OFF 16.24 11.10 SHEAR N/A 30.12 49.01 FCST
2007OCT12 184500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 17.24 11.03 SHEAR N/A 30.12 49.00 FCST
2007OCT12 191500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 17.34 10.98 SHEAR N/A 30.13 48.99 FCST
2007OCT12 194500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG 17.94 11.16 SHEAR N/A 30.13 48.98 FCST
2007OCT12 201500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG 17.54 10.53 SHEAR N/A 30.73 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 204500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 NO LIMIT ON FLG 17.04 11.01 SHEAR N/A 30.78 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 211500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 17.34 9.17 SHEAR N/A 30.82 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 214500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 16.94 11.42 SHEAR N/A 30.87 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 221500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 17.04 11.38 SHEAR N/A 30.92 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 224500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 16.54 12.22 SHEAR N/A 30.96 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 231500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 16.94 12.53 SHEAR N/A 31.00 49.50 FCST
2007OCT12 234500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 16.04 11.77 SHEAR N/A 31.05 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 001500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 15.54 11.66 SHEAR N/A 31.09 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 004500 1.9 1009.6/ +0.0 / 29.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON ON 15.44 11.68 SHEAR N/A 31.13 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 011500 1.8 1010.2/ +0.0 / 28.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 15.34 12.41 SHEAR N/A 31.17 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 014500 1.7 1010.8/ +0.0 / 27.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 14.94 13.14 SHEAR N/A 31.21 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 021500 1.6 1011.4/ +0.0 / 26.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 14.44 14.14 SHEAR N/A 31.24 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 024500 1.6 1011.4/ +0.0 / 26.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 13.04 14.16 SHEAR N/A 31.28 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 031500 1.6 1011.4/ +0.0 / 26.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 15.54 14.23 SHEAR N/A 31.32 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 034500 1.5 1012.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 14.74 14.46 SHEAR N/A 31.35 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 054500 1.4 1012.4/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 13.14 12.94 SHEAR N/A 31.48 49.50 FCST
2007OCT13 061500 1.4 1012.4/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 15.24 12.55 SHEAR N/A 31.74 49.66 EXTRP
2007OCT13 064500 1.4 1012.4/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 15.74 13.39 SHEAR N/A 31.78 49.66 EXTRP
2007OCT13 071500 1.2 1013.2/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 15.84 13.30 SHEAR N/A 31.78 49.63 EXTRP
2007OCT13 074500 1.2 1013.2/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 14.84 12.98 SHEAR N/A 31.83 49.64 EXTRP
2007OCT13 081500 1.1 1013.6/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 13.84 13.09 SHEAR N/A 31.82 49.58 EXTRP
2007OCT13 084500 1.1 1013.6/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 11.94 12.86 SHEAR N/A 31.87 49.61 EXTRP
2007OCT13 091500 1.1 1013.6/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 14.44 12.70 SHEAR N/A 31.92 49.62 EXTRP
2007OCT13 094500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT ON ON 13.44 12.92 SHEAR N/A 31.96 49.62 EXTRP
2007OCT13 101500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.14 12.83 SHEAR N/A 32.01 49.63 EXTRP
2007OCT13 104500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.34 12.62 SHEAR N/A 32.05 49.63 EXTRP
2007OCT13 111500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.44 12.07 SHEAR N/A 32.10 49.64 EXTRP
2007OCT13 114500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 15.24 12.06 SHEAR N/A 32.14 49.64 EXTRP
2007OCT13 121500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.04 11.66 SHEAR N/A 32.19 49.65 EXTRP
2007OCT13 124500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.04 11.50 SHEAR N/A 32.23 49.66 EXTRP
2007OCT13 131500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.44 11.25 SHEAR N/A 32.28 49.66 EXTRP
2007OCT13 134500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.74 11.17 SHEAR N/A 32.33 49.67 EXTRP
2007OCT13 141500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.44 9.70 SHEAR N/A 32.37 49.68 EXTRP
2007OCT13 144500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.44 9.80 SHEAR N/A 32.42 49.68 EXTRP
2007OCT13 151500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.74 8.96 SHEAR N/A 32.45 49.67 EXTRP
2007OCT13 154500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.74 8.23 SHEAR N/A 32.49 49.68 EXTRP
2007OCT13 161500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.94 8.44 SHEAR N/A 32.54 49.68 EXTRP
2007OCT13 164500 1.0 1014.0/ +0.0 / 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.44 7.68 SHEAR N/A 32.58 49.69 EXTRP
Utilizing history file /home/misc/adt/scripts/history/15L.ODT
Successfully completed listing

[Category 5]

Cimss shown a 2.5t. Also it looked better then Chantel and barry. Theres your facts.

Kate looked better on satelitte then Fabian, I guess we should make her a Category 5 then. Might wanna upgrade Luis too, he looked better then Opal.

[Derek Ortt]

of course, it is not a state secret that the ADT should only be used when there is a well-defined eye

Matt, some advice, please do not use your subjective OPINION as justification that something is a FACT. It really hurts your credibility