South China Sea: Tropical Storm Hagibis

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0724 HAGIBIS (0724)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 11.0N 111.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 11.7N 111.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 241200UTC 12.0N 113.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 251200UTC 13.1N 115.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Getting close to the coast.

[Chacor]

JMA still thinks it will make a sharp u-turn.

[HURAKAN]

I say right, you say left!

[Coredesat]

The models seem to agree with the JMA:



The GFS also makes the U-turn and has Hagibis stalling out in the South China Sea.

[HURAKAN]

Now they both agree.

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't such a turn make this get absorbed by Mitag?

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe that's why they show it weakening.

[Squarethecircle]

Aww man, I missed it... This thing looks pretty ravaged now; probably will weaken. It's just not fair, you know.

[Cyclenall]

I didn't know why no one was talking about this when it was slowly moving backwards like a U-turn since I never see that!

The turn has taken a toll on Hagibis and I wanted to see if they can merge together.

[Coredesat]

[Chacor]

JMA is actually calling for re-intensification and for landfall on western Luzon at 60 kts! JTWC says it'll be a 20 kt depression dissipating by then.

[HURAKAN]

WOW! Talk about different opinions!

[Chacor]

JMA was right the first time with the u-turn when JTWC expected Veitnam landfall, so we'll see who's right this time.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: WOW! Talk about different opinions!

I have never seen such a difference. Looking at the Dvorak numbers and satellite pictures, I think the JTWC is correct for current intensity and the 50 kt (10-min) is overdone.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2025NOV20 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 11:52:44 N Lon : 112:59:46 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1001.3mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.7mb

Center Temp : +13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -11.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.60^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Squarethecircle]

That seems a lot more likely than 50 knots. Since the shear doesn't appear to want to let up, and even though the South China Sea is known for turning storms into typhoons, it doesn't have nearly the time it needs to reorganize, let alone rapidly intensify. Should be nearly dead by the Philippines.

[HurricaneBill]

Has the Philippines ever been struck by a "back-door" typhoon?

[WindRunner]

Well congrats to Jim on an excellent call here . . . four days later and it is doing just that.

Glad to see that the JTWC still gets burned